Hurricane Floyd wrote:I had 17/9/5
with la nina now I have
19/11/6 with 2 cat 5's
Just because there's a La Nina doesn't necessarily mean that a season will have twice as many named storms as normal (19 vs. 9.6). Many other factors came into play in 2005 to produce the 27 named storms. The presence of what looked like a monsoonal trof in the central to NW Caribbean combined with unusually low wind shear in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf were two of the main factors. La Nina would likely have significantly less impact than those two. Questsion is, will the same trof and shear patterns redevelop in 2006? I think it's unlikely, at least climatology says so. Cooling temps in the Pacific could also mean a stronger Bermuda high in 2006 and beyond, and that could erase the very low shear in the Caribbean Sea. With La Nina, the shear may be a little lower than in a "normal" season, but it may be higher than last year.
That said, my initial thoughts before I heard a presentation by TSR were about 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Quite a bit higher than normal, but significantly lower than last year.
