Models show development near azores

#1 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:29 am

gfs

ukmet

nogaps

ROCK · #2 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:46 am

I am not sure that would be considered tropical in nature.....

but it is an impressive system.....

Coredesat · #3 Postby **Coredesat** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 6:59 am

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/79.html

Interesting, but borderline at best. SSTs are too cold, anyway.

#4 Postby **P.K.** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 7:21 am

It is baroclinic on the Met Office charts. http://www.westwind.ch/?link=ukmb,http://217.160.75.104/pics/,.gif,brack4a

#5 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 12:42 pm

To far North if this pans out to be purely tropical in nature, but it could still be subtropical, or hybrid if you will. Is certainly worth watching, if nothing else.

KWT · #6 Postby **KWT** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:02 pm

I'm pretty certain this is just a barolinic feature as has been said. If this occured in August however....

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 3:48 pm

Nothing important developing right now, and being February, I don't expect much!

#8 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sat Feb 04, 2006 4:17 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
Nothing important developing right now, and being February, I don't expect much!

I don't expect much, but I can't rule out something ober waters of 18 to 19 degrees. "Epsilon" had just pver 20°C and the med system in January 1995 had waters of only 16°C.

WindRunner · #9 Postby **WindRunner** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 10:35 am

After a cold-core start, it looks like the GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET all develop it into a warm core/semi-warm core by +120 hours, and one in the 990mb range.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/06020506/67.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/06020500/59.html

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/06020500/73.html

Javlin · #10 Postby **Javlin** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 10:48 am

Well that would be an eye opener if that was to come about.still kind of hard to percieve that though.

#11 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 11:35 am

Here is an update:

#12 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 12:29 pm

Like I said. Should be interesting to watch.

#13 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 12:47 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Like I said. Should be interesting to watch.

Of course, and there will be some heavy rains and storms on the Canary Islands.

#14 Postby **TheEuropean** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 2:11 pm

And a new image (18:00 UTC):

Looking disorganized at this time.

#15 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sun Feb 05, 2006 10:04 pm

whats the latest?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #16 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Feb 06, 2006 12:56 am

While I'm not sold on ANY tropical development from this system, whatsoever... here are some charts from the USAFE Operational Weather Squadron:

Latest Satellite Analysis
24hr Forecast
48hr Forecast
72hr Forecast
96hr Forecast
120hr Forecast

#17 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Feb 06, 2006 1:20 am

I know that 2005 proved that almost everything is possible, but don't let your imagination go that far.

Coredesat · #18 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Feb 06, 2006 2:12 am

#19 Postby **TheEuropean** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 2:51 am

Here is an update, Feb. 7th, 06:00 UTC:

Coredesat · #20 Postby **Coredesat** » Tue Feb 07, 2006 3:22 am

Pretty much all the models on the cyclone phase analysis page are now saying that this system will remain baroclinic.

It looks cool, though.

Models show development near azores

Models show development near azores

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