Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Portastorm]

jschlitz ... fine ... but what are we to think when a NWS forecast office just up the road from Fort Worth (i.e. Norman, OK) writes this:

AS THE MODELS CONT TO TRY AND SUGGEST PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK
WE SHOULD SEE SOME COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NOTHING
TO DRASTIC... JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL. LARGE COLD POOL AND
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ACROSS CANADA AND BY LATE IN
THE WEEK MODELS TRY TO DISLODGE THIS AND MOVE AIRMASS SOUTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY WITH THE COLD
AIR NO WHERE TO BE FOUND EVEN WITH MODELS HINTING AT ITS COMING...
WILL TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH
BEFORE WITH GOING MUCH COOLER. KIND OF LIKE PRECIP CHANCES AROUND
HERE LATELY... ITS HARD TO PUT THEM IN UNTIL YOU SEE IT WITH YOU OWN
EYES.


Fort Worth made no mention of this possibility and talked about a westerly flow ... from a GFS model suspect beyond 168 hrs to begin with! What Norman wrote above is pragmatic and reasonable. They acknowledge what all of the prevailing thought is but they also say "I'll believe when we see more signs of it." That's all I'm trying to say.

In the age of the Internet, these forecast discussions get read by lots and lots of people. And some people -- even if they are weather weenies -- know more than the "average bear."

I can't speak for the rest of the gang here who, like me, are bullish on the weather turning much colder later next week. But if this discussion proves right and I'm wrong, I will personally e-mail those guys at Fort Worth NWS and tell them how I scoffed and laughed at their discussion and how wrong I was.

[jasons2k]

well there's 2 things I do know for sure

1) Only the man upstairs knows for sure what will happen
2) It's best to save the criticism for after the event. I've noticed over the years the people that criticize the most before an event (or non-event) are usually the ones who get burned. Maybe it's Karma. Case & point: last year DT from wxrisk made a HUGE deal about the Rita forecasts going to Texas. He called respected mets bad names and said it was all media hype. He was uber-convinced Rita was going well SOUTH of Texas into Mexico. Well whaddayaknow, Rita not only cleared Mexico, it hit LA for good measure.

[gboudx]

I may be wrong, but I don't think the NWS offices check with each other on what they are planning to forecast for their CWA, on a regular basis. I've noticed that they will occassionally put something like, "thanks to (other NWS office) for coordination". I'm assuming at those times, they are checking with each other. This is why I assume we see differences in a sample geographic area. But, they have plenty of time to "catch up" to what the models might be suggesting for next week. What's the big deal?

[Tyler]

well there's 2 things I do know for sure

1) Only the man upstairs knows for sure what will happen
2) It's best to save the criticism for after the event. I've noticed over the years the people that criticize the most before an event (or non-event) are usually the ones who get burned. Maybe it's Karma. Case & point: last year DT from wxrisk made a HUGE deal about the Rita forecasts going to Texas. He called respected mets bad names and said it was all media hype. He was uber-convinced Rita was going well SOUTH of Texas into Mexico. Well whaddayaknow, Rita not only cleared Mexico, it hit LA for good measure.

When does DT not do something like that. He has very bad people skills...

[Portastorm]

I may be wrong, but I don't think the NWS offices check with each other on what they are planning to forecast for their CWA, on a regular basis. I've noticed that they will occassionally put something like, "thanks to (other NWS office) for coordination". I'm assuming at those times, they are checking with each other. This is why I assume we see differences in a sample geographic area. But, they have plenty of time to "catch up" to what the models might be suggesting for next week. What's the big deal?

You guys sure know how to snuff out a good ranting!

[Tyler]

jschlitz ... fine ... but what are we to think when a NWS forecast office just up the road from Fort Worth (i.e. Norman, OK) writes this:

AS THE MODELS CONT TO TRY AND SUGGEST PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK
WE SHOULD SEE SOME COOLER TEMPS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NOTHING
TO DRASTIC... JUST CLOSER TO NORMAL. LARGE COLD POOL AND
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH DEVELOP NEXT WEEK ACROSS CANADA AND BY LATE IN
THE WEEK MODELS TRY TO DISLODGE THIS AND MOVE AIRMASS SOUTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER AS HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY WITH THE COLD
AIR NO WHERE TO BE FOUND EVEN WITH MODELS HINTING AT ITS COMING...
WILL TREND TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND TAKE A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH
BEFORE WITH GOING MUCH COOLER. KIND OF LIKE PRECIP CHANCES AROUND
HERE LATELY... ITS HARD TO PUT THEM IN UNTIL YOU SEE IT WITH YOU OWN
EYES.


Fort Worth made no mention of this possibility and talked about a westerly flow ... from a GFS model suspect beyond 168 hrs to begin with! What Norman wrote above is pragmatic and reasonable. They acknowledge what all of the prevailing thought is but they also say "I'll believe when we see more signs of it." That's all I'm trying to say.

In the age of the Internet, these forecast discussions get read by lots and lots of people. And some people -- even if they are weather weenies -- know more than the "average bear."

I can't speak for the rest of the gang here who, like me, are bullish on the weather turning much colder later next week. But if this discussion proves right and I'm wrong, I will personally e-mail those guys at Fort Worth NWS and tell them how I scoffed and laughed at their discussion and how wrong I was.

Very good points! I agree. Also, a little coordination with other offices could help...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

But is the conservative way really the way to go? Forecasts are going to bust horribly next week becuase all these offices are scared of cold air. I'm not trashing the NWS, I'm just a little confused. I mean, seriously, the DFW AFD makes no sense.

I should just shut up now though. They work hard for the public and do a good job at what they do, I'm just a guy who likes to complain alot...

It's probably a good thing that most weather related industries rely on more than one source for weather info. One thing I noticed Yesterday and I admit that I have no factual data that this standard for Wal-Mart. But I noticed they have yet to clear out the ailse where they have the fireplace logs. I say that because Wal Mart is real good about their distirbution systems when it comes to preparing an area for Hurricanes.

[jasons2k]

well there's 2 things I do know for sure

1) Only the man upstairs knows for sure what will happen
2) It's best to save the criticism for after the event. I've noticed over the years the people that criticize the most before an event (or non-event) are usually the ones who get burned. Maybe it's Karma. Case & point: last year DT from wxrisk made a HUGE deal about the Rita forecasts going to Texas. He called respected mets bad names and said it was all media hype. He was uber-convinced Rita was going well SOUTH of Texas into Mexico. Well whaddayaknow, Rita not only cleared Mexico, it hit LA for good measure.

When does DT not do something like that. He has very bad people skills...

I agree, but that's all I can say. Last year when I was critical of him calling Dr. Lyons a "bald headed idiot" I was threatened with an account suspension...but yes I agree with you.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

But is the conservative way really the way to go? Forecasts are going to bust horribly next week becuase all these offices are scared of cold air. I'm not trashing the NWS, I'm just a little confused. I mean, seriously, the DFW AFD makes no sense.

I should just shut up now though. They work hard for the public and do a good job at what they do, I'm just a guy who likes to complain alot...

I might be totaly wrong here with this observation and if someone wants to set the record straight, please do. In the era where we have numerous private weather forecasting services that pay Metos big money, I think are NWS are thin on people that real study past weather events and analogs. The NWS is in effect has become a training ground at the local offices much like a county Attorney's office is a training ground for lawyer fresh out of school.

Portastorm and I have talked about the guys in Brownsville in the 1980's and before then that would have been alert for a potetntial cold winter event a couple of weeks in advance. I recall 1989 listening to my Radio Shack weather cube when the Metos down there where talking about the killer outbreak a week or two in advance. No, they said their was no definates in event like this. But they would have not written of evidence like we have today like the offices for most of the state are doing today.

[Tyler]

But is the conservative way really the way to go? Forecasts are going to bust horribly next week becuase all these offices are scared of cold air. I'm not trashing the NWS, I'm just a little confused. I mean, seriously, the DFW AFD makes no sense.

I should just shut up now though. They work hard for the public and do a good job at what they do, I'm just a guy who likes to complain alot...

I might be totaly wrong here with this observation and if someone wants to set the record straight, please do. In the era where we have numerous private weather forecasting services that pay Metos big money, I think are NWS are thin on people that real study past weather events and analogs. The NWS is in effect has become a training ground at the local offices much like a county Attorney's office is a training ground for lawyer fresh out of school.

Portastorm and I have talked about the guys in Brownsville in the 1980's and before then that would have been alert for a potetntial cold winter event a couple of weeks in advance. I recall 1989 listening to my Radio Shack weather cube when the Metos down there where talking about the killer outbreak a week or two in advance. No, they said their was no definates in event like this. But they would have not written of evidence like we have today like the offices for most of the state are doing today.

Interesting about the guys in Brownsville in the 80's... Didn't know about that! I agree with your observation.

Once in a while, offices around the area will come out with very well written 'area forecast discussions'. You can really tell the author put alot of thought into the forecast package, looked at different models, and actually used commen sense. Other times, like today's AFD in Houston, you can tell the author glanced at the GFS MOS GUIDANCE, spit out what that said on the forecast, then wrote a short AFD that really just says what the GFS says.

I guess it just matters on who is on duty at the time, as to what quality forecast you get.

[aggiecutter]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just think that the NWS needs to spend a little less time basing their forecasts on a single run of the GFS and look at the facts and the pattern as well as analogs. I simply think that in this day and age that the NWS forecasts are basically a GFS run with pictures and words. SOMETIMES they may get brave and look at other things...but for the most part, the GFS is their model of choice. In defense of the NWS though, I DO think that they see the overall "idea" of the change coming. For instance...ALL of next week has forecast highs below 70...which shows that they know it will not be as warm as it has been...but I still think that their highs of 62-68 will bust..especially late next week. I would suspect that by the end of the next week that jackets become a common sight again. Also...the GFS is starting to even come around some. The 12Z run is showing some very cold air in the area in a week (Feb. 10th) and it shows the "idea" of a VERY cold airmass building (waiting for release) in the northern plains by next weekend.

[Tyler]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Sounds like Dec 1983, only the air in Canada right now is not as cold as it was at that time...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Yeah, I think that by next weekend...the idea of a major arctic outbreak will be real. I would bet that we get our hard freeze in Houston in less than 14 days...but we will probably get more than one. I also have a suspicion that we could see some wintry weather too...but I am not too confident in that yet (certainly possible though).

[jasons2k]

If I recall the '89 event correctly there was no question well ahead of the event that it was going to be an historic outbreak, not just from NWS but from private sources as well. I remember Harold Taft talking about it for days before the cold even crossed the US/Canadian border. That was a pretty unique situation and it's a bit unfair to criticize the NWS for not saying the same thing today, when most likely it won't turn out anything like 1989.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Agreed!

This scenario is what Air Force Met suggested would happen. Accuwx's JB also has been saying the same thing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Portastorm, with the AO forcast to go strongly negative in the medium range, the CPC probably has nailed where the brunt of the coldest air will come initially, the plains. From past experience and looking at the models, I think there'll be a couple minor intrusions of arctic air next week into the southern plains. Then, early the following week, the motherload will come down.

Agreed!

This scenario is what Air Force Met suggested would happen. Accuwx's JB also has been saying the same thing.

Yeah. JB has even been saying that WORST case would be an 1899 scenario...but at this point I do not see something THAT extreme in the works. The WORST case to me would be a Feb. 1989 or Jan/Feb. 1951 scenario...but that is WORST case and not probable until we see further evidence of the possibility..but I do not think that it is out of the realm of possibility. Wonder what we will be saying next week at this time? By that point we should KNOW whether or not something major is going to play out.

[Tyler]

Feb 1979 is also possible...

[richtrav]

LOL, I haven't even heard Feb 89 or 51 being brought up. I remember Feb '89 and they kept talking about how closely it resembled conditions before the big freeze of 51.

And yes, I remember Dec 89 too, and the weathermen were warning us on TV and everywhere that we were about to get the coldest weather in "decades". They were right

[Brent]

Feb 1979 is also possible...

There was a big ice/snow storm around here then. My cousin was born on the 11th of that month and year and my mom has said they were unable to go anywhere for days.