NOAA=Officially La Nina is here

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cycloneye
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NOAA=Officially La Nina is here

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:08 pm

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2572.htm

:uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow: :uarrow:

Image

Well for us here at storm2k is not new this news about la nina being in the equatorial pacific as at this talking tropics forum there has been plenty of information that has been posted in recent weeks about the data that supports la nina event.However NOAA makes it official today with this statement that they release and you can read at link above.In terms of the effects from la nina on the 2006 hurricane season they are somewhat cautious as you can read below.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

Typically, La Niña events favor increased Atlantic hurricane activity, however, Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center says, "It is too early to say with confidence what effects this La Niña event will have on the 2006 hurricane season."
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#2 Postby CHRISTY » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:21 pm

so wait let me get this straight i think this means in la nina years hurricanes tend to recurve before ever reaching the US .... i think its still a bit to early to see what affects la nina might have on this years hurricane season so i guess its a wait and see situation!OPINONS WELCOME... PS!what do you guys think this means for us in FLORIDA? :eek: :eek:
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#3 Postby windycity » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:39 pm

lets see where the bermuda high decides to go, if it is huggin our coast in may, id say we might be in trouble.
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Feb 02, 2006 12:53 pm

La Nina means plenty of juice for storms in the Atlantic. Correct me if I'm wrong,but wasn't 1999 a la Nina year? :eek: Lets hope no hurricanes target NOLA this year. The levees hav en't been fixed yet :roll:
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:15 pm

canegrl04 wrote:La Nina means plenty of juice for storms in the Atlantic. Correct me if I'm wrong,but wasn't 1999 a la Nina year? :eek: Lets hope no hurricanes target NOLA this year. The levees hav en't been fixed yet :roll:


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Yes in 1999 la nina was at full force in the equatorial pacific as you can see at graphic above.
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#6 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:27 pm

So 1998 and 1999 were last years that La Nina was here???
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#7 Postby P.K. » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:30 pm

Does anyone really have the "official" word on ENSO? If the BoM goes to a La Nina as well then I'd agree it was a La Nina. At the moment I'd have it somewhere between neutral and La Nina. :wink:
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#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:35 pm

P.K. wrote:Does anyone really have the "official" word on ENSO? If the BoM goes to a La Nina as well then I'd agree it was a La Nina. At the moment I'd have it somewhere between neutral and La Nina. :wink:


On Febuary 9 CPC will release it's febuary update.
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#9 Postby Duffy » Thu Feb 02, 2006 1:44 pm

JtSmarts wrote:So 1998 and 1999 were last years that La Nina was here???


no it said in another Article i read on this Subject that it was 2001, but it was relatively week
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#10 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Feb 02, 2006 2:50 pm

Oy....
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#11 Postby Terrell » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:30 pm

Does this mean that 2006 is set up to break 2005's records? I hope not, I don't want to see the misery that comes with those records being broken.
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#12 Postby Duffy » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:34 pm

i don't think so.....i don't think next year will be quite as bad, but don't quote me on it lol
We said we'd never see another '04 type season again and look what happened in '05 lol
So now i am cautious...i still would like to see a Big ole Storm up here in New England though :) We came close with Ophelia and Wilma respectively, but no cigar :(
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#13 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:52 pm

La Nina also means decreased activity in the EPAC.
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La Nina

#14 Postby OuterBanker » Thu Feb 02, 2006 4:13 pm

First the good. Yes, generally there are a lot of re-curves during La Nina years. Which should mean some reprieve for the Gulf coast.

The bad. It also means an unusually high number of storms.

The worse. Dr Grays analog years that he used for the 2006 season included 1996, 1999, and 2003. All of those years include direct hits on the state that hurricanes like to hit or side swipe on their way out to sea.

With any luck, only the good will happen.
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Re: La Nina

#15 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 02, 2006 8:02 pm

OuterBanker wrote:First the good. Yes, generally there are a lot of re-curves during La Nina years. Which should mean some reprieve for the Gulf coast.

The bad. It also means an unusually high number of storms.

The worse. Dr Grays analog years that he used for the 2006 season included 1996, 1999, and 2003. All of those years include direct hits on the state that hurricanes like to hit or side swipe on their way out to sea.

With any luck, only the good will happen.


All this means an active Cape Verde season in 2006 which will be a concern for the Lesser Antilles and NE Caribbean islands but hopefully those turn away before they reach the longitud of the islands.
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#16 Postby Javlin » Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:43 pm

Maybe Cycloneye they will cut N of the box whats it's name? And miss a whole bunch of us.
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#17 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Feb 02, 2006 10:38 pm

God help us on the East Coast, especially for those in the Carolinas, if it is like 1996 or 1999 only with more possible storms.
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#18 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Feb 02, 2006 11:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:
canegrl04 wrote:La Nina means plenty of juice for storms in the Atlantic. Correct me if I'm wrong,but wasn't 1999 a la Nina year? :eek: Lets hope no hurricanes target NOLA this year. The levees hav en't been fixed yet :roll:


Image

Yes in 1999 la nina was at full force in the equatorial pacific as you can see at graphic above.


Ironicly on that very day..........

Image
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Re: NOAA=Officially La Nina is here

#19 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Feb 03, 2006 9:13 am

cycloneye wrote:
Typically, La Niña events favor increased Atlantic hurricane activity, however, Jim Laver, director of the NOAA Climate Prediction Center says, "It is too early to say with confidence what effects this La Niña event will have on the 2006 hurricane season."



So we have NOAA saying a La Nina typically favors increased hurricane activity and we have some people, within the field at Storm2k saying it does not. This is why I mentioned the other day that we should be cautious about this latter assumption.

Who is right? I am not sure but evidently NOAA thinks differently then some other people around here.


Jim
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Jim Hughes
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Re: NOAA=Officially La Nina is here

#20 Postby Jim Hughes » Fri Feb 03, 2006 9:14 am

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