Will Cindy Be upgraded to a hurricane?

[Audrey2Katrina]

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Also - on Katrina's surge - is it possible that Katrina really DID have a Category Four surge? I think it may be possible... it's just that wave action on top of the surge exemplified the effects and surge into a Category Five-type surge. Also, the surge may have had such profound effects because the Gulf coast may be much more vulnerable than what many even conceived. Is this possible?

Have to disagree, CVW; there is VERY little doubt this was every BIT of a Cat 5 surge. There is absolute CONCRETE evidence of the height of this surge. In Biloxi, which is NOT where the greatest surge occured, one hurricane chaser has documented the entire landfall event on film, including the surge, taken from the Biloxi Colisseum. This is on a point elevated 20 ft above sea level, and when the "Surge" came in, (not waves overtopping the surge), the water levels rose to more than five feet INSIDE that Colisseum. This is NOT consistent even remotely with a Cat 4 surge, but rather every inch of a Cat 5. And like I said, this was not even the highest surge reported.

A2K

[ROCK]

CapeVerdeWave wrote:
Also - on Katrina's surge - is it possible that Katrina really DID have a Category Four surge? I think it may be possible... it's just that wave action on top of the surge exemplified the effects and surge into a Category Five-type surge. Also, the surge may have had such profound effects because the Gulf coast may be much more vulnerable than what many even conceived. Is this possible?

Have to disagree, CVW; there is VERY little doubt this was every BIT of a Cat 5 surge. There is absolute CONCRETE evidence of the height of this surge. In Biloxi, which is NOT where the greatest surge occured, one hurricane chaser has documented the entire landfall event on film, including the surge, taken from the Biloxi Colisseum. This is on a point elevated 20 ft above sea level, and when the "Surge" came in, (not waves overtopping the surge), the water levels rose to more than five feet INSIDE that Colisseum. This is NOT consistent even remotely with a Cat 4 surge, but rather every inch of a Cat 5. And like I said, this was not even the highest surge reported.

A2K

I will agree with you on this...<bite my tongue>. it was a cat 5 surge generated during her days as a cat 5 and subsequent 4.

[Audrey2Katrina]

May your tongue heal quickly; we agree on something.

[Pearl River]

Oh my gosh, we have an agreement

[ROCK]

Hey I only meant surge....not wind speed....

[Pearl River]

I know

[Audrey2Katrina]

Sh-h-h-h, let's not ruin a good thing!

A2K

[Stormcenter]

I was NOT surprised to read Cindy was upgraded. There was NEVER a doubt just like I believe Katrina was a Cat. 4 at landfall despite the later downgrade. They will probably revisit and upgrade her again in a few years to Cat.4.

can you find any wind reports on land of katrina being a 4 though (sustained)? No. The surge may have been that of a 4...but in today's world we rate hurricanes by the wind and not the surge. I think a Cat. 3 for Katrina is right. Also, concerning Cindy...yes, I think she should be upgraded. Lots of the damage I saw with her is in line with that of a Cat. 1 storm.

There were no land reports that I'm aware of showing Andrew as a Cat 5, this proves nothing. Hence, I agree with Stormcenter. The SAME Slidell Doppler radar used to upgrade Cindy was utterly tossed out while showing Cat 4 for Katrina as being (too distant) and the landfalls are BOTH in Plaquemines (albeit the report states that Grand Isle is in Plaquemines indicating a serious need to revisit Geography class. Valid land readings are very sparse due to instrument failure, and the surge was consistent, at least along Mississippi, with a 5, not a 4. I concur that Katrina will be revisited, just as Andrew was, and reclassified as the 4 she was. And FWIW there was no doubt in my mind Cindy would be upgraded to hurricane status, which is why I was so eager to see this particular report.

A2K

Thank you!

[recmod]

At the risk of receiving some blistering retorts, I would like to point out that this entire 4 page discussion about Katrina's strength and the validity of the NHC's reports is completely off topic. Aren't we supposed to be talking about Cindy and her upgrade here in this thread?

I have just read through the past 4 pages rehashing the months long debate on the strength of Katrina. I had hoped to see anyone's feedback regarding Cindy's upgrade in general and Stacy Stewart's comments specifically.

The Orlando Sentinel carried an article on Jan 27 that reported the following:

"However, after a review of Doppler radar in Slidell, La, hurricane specialist Stacy Stewart found the system briefly reached at least 75 mph and possibly intensified to more than 90 mph."

So, was Cindy nearly a Cat 2 hurricane????? Comments anyone???

--Lou

[Audrey2Katrina]

Good question, recmod. Personally, given all the damage in the area, there was never any doubt in my mind that this thing was going to be a hurricane upon further review. I like Stewart, and would have liked to have had his input in the Katrina report as well. O well, another story. Getting back to your question, I concur with him in the statement that it was quite possibly "near" it; but I have extreme doubts that will ever be given much credence. Suffice it to say that at least it has been deemed a "hurricane".

A2K

[ROCK]

90 mph seems a bit much for such a, dare I say, ugly hurricane. Then again Stewart is pretty good....