HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1217 UTC 29 January 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 975 hectopascals located at
291200 UTC near 16.2 south 156.6 east and moving east at 9 knots. Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 60 knots
near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours.
Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours.
Forecast position at 300000 UTC 16.7 south and 159.1 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.
Forecast position at 301200UTC 17.7 south and 161.8 east with central pressure
945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots.
WEATHER BRISBANE
SOUTH PACIFIC: Tropical Cyclone Jim (10P)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
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- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
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WTPS31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/291352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.3S 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.8S 159.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 17.9S 161.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 163.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.9S 165.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 24.2S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4S 157.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 660 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY RE-
VEALS A REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TC 10P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER
THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS AND SUBTROPICAL
UPPER LEVEL LOW. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 10P WILL BEGIN
TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE FLOW AND WEAKEN AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.
BACK TO "'CANE" STATUS!
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
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- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
5 am on Monday the 30th of January 2006
At 4am EST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 3 with central pressure
970 hPa, was located near 16.4S 158.6E, about 1130 km northeast of Rockhampton
and 1080km northwest of Noumea, the capital of New Caledonia. Jim has been
moving to the east at 35 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to begin to move towards
the east southeast towards New Caledonia.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 11 AM EST on Monday, 30 January.
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
5 am on Monday the 30th of January 2006
At 4am EST Monday, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 3 with central pressure
970 hPa, was located near 16.4S 158.6E, about 1130 km northeast of Rockhampton
and 1080km northwest of Noumea, the capital of New Caledonia. Jim has been
moving to the east at 35 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to begin to move towards
the east southeast towards New Caledonia.
The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 11 AM EST on Monday, 30 January.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Cat 3, but about to cross into Fiji's area where it will simply be a Tropical Cyclone.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 January 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located
at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 65 knots
near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours.
Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours.
Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.
Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure
945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots.
WEATHER BRISBANE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1812 UTC 29 January 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Severe Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located
at 291800 UTC near 16.4 south 158.6 east and moving east at 20 knots. Position
fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Maximum winds to 65 knots
near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over the next 24 hours.
Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours.
Forecast position at 300600 UTC 17.4 south and 161.2 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.
Forecast position at 301800UTC 18.8 south and 163.8 east with central pressure
945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/292152ZJAN2006//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 16.3S 158.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 158.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.9S 161.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.9S 163.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 19.7S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 21.6S 168.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.4S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 16.5S 159.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NEW CALEDONIA UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW
SOUTH OF NEW CALEDONIA. TC 10P WILL SLOW BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS
WHILE ENTERING A WEAKER STEERING ENVIRONMENT INDUCED BY THE WESTWARD
RECESSION OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF A TRANSIENT
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENTRAINS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
TC JIM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO NEW CALEDONIA.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
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- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
The 160E line has been crossed so it passes over to Fiji now.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0008 UTC 30 January 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located
at 300000 UTC near 16.9 south 160.4 east and moving east southeast at 20 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots
within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of
the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours.
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over
the next 24 hours.
Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours.
Forecast position at 301200 UTC 18.0 south and 163.1 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.
Forecast position at 310000UTC 19.5 south and 165.5 east with central pressure
945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots.
WEATHER BRISBANE
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0008 UTC 30 January 2006
HURRICANE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA
SITUATION
Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 970 hectopascals located
at 300000 UTC near 16.9 south 160.4 east and moving east southeast at 20 knots.
Position fair.
AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles of the cyclone centre.
FORECAST
Clockwise winds 35/45 knots within 130 nm of centre. Clockwise winds 50/60 knots
within 50 nm of the centre. Clockwise winds greater than 65 knots within 25nm of
the centre and within 30nm of the centre in 18 to 24 hours.
Maximum winds to 65 knots near the centre steadily increasing to 85 knots over
the next 24 hours.
Very rough seas rising very high to phenomenal near the centre during the next
24 hours.
Forecast position at 301200 UTC 18.0 south and 163.1 east with central pressure
960 hPa and maximum winds to 75 knots.
Forecast position at 310000UTC 19.5 south and 165.5 east with central pressure
945 hPa and maximum winds to 85 knots.
WEATHER BRISBANE
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
FMS links added for Jim (04U / 08F / 10P) on the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/spac.htm
Last edited by senorpepr on Sun Jan 29, 2006 9:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/300152ZJAN2006//
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.9S 160.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 160.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.4S 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.0S 166.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 21.8S 168.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 23.1S 171.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.6S 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 161.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM IS RAPIDLY TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE SHARED INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AND A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF NEW
CALEDONIA. A 292111Z SSMIS PASS DEPICTS A NORTHWEST- TO SOUTHEAST-
ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST POLEWARD OF TC 09C. THE CYCLONE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 18 FEET. THIS IS THE LAST SIX
HOUR WARNING INTERVAL FOR TC 10P. THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER
WILL ISSUE TC 10P WARNINGS EVERY 12 HOURS HEREAFTER. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 301500Z AND 310300Z.
TC JIM IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS OF NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 30/0801 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 17.7 South
161.4 East at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots,
winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots
within 130 miles of the centre.
Cloud tops have warmed in the last 6 hours - warm white spot
indicating Jim's LLCC at 300000 UTC has disappeared since. Cyclone
lies under a 250 hPa northwest steering flow sandwiched between the
subtropical ridge to the north and a large midlatitude baroclinic low
near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates environmental shear of 10 knots
over Jim. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding
CMG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Outflow remains good to the south and
southeast. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler
SSTs south of New Caledonia anticipated to restrict further
development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with
little change in intensity.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 301800 UTC near 19.5S 164.1E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 21.4S 166.4E mov SE at 15kt with 85kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.8S 167.4E mov SE at 10kt with 75kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 23.4S 167.8E mov SSE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 301400 UTC.
Jan 30/0801 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 17.7 South
161.4 East at 300600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving southeast at about 15 knots. Maximum
10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots,
winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots
within 130 miles of the centre.
Cloud tops have warmed in the last 6 hours - warm white spot
indicating Jim's LLCC at 300000 UTC has disappeared since. Cyclone
lies under a 250 hPa northwest steering flow sandwiched between the
subtropical ridge to the north and a large midlatitude baroclinic low
near Norfolk island. CIMMS indicates environmental shear of 10 knots
over Jim. Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding
CMG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Outflow remains good to the south and
southeast. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and cooler
SSTs south of New Caledonia anticipated to restrict further
development. Global models generally agree on a southeast track with
little change in intensity.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 301800 UTC near 19.5S 164.1E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 21.4S 166.4E mov SE at 15kt with 85kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.8S 167.4E mov SE at 10kt with 75kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 23.4S 167.8E mov SSE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 301400 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/301352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 163.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 163.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW
FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND
311500Z.
GETTING CLOSER TO NEW CALEDONIA!
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 30/1356 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.2 South
163.6 East at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and
expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over
47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles
of the centre.
A persistent cold dark grey overcast has proved difficult to locate
the LLCC. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest
steering flow, sandwiched between the 250hPa subtropical ridge to
the north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment.
However, the resultant shear is negligible given the large
translational speed of the system. Dvorak analysis based on embedded
centre with a surrounding CDG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET
=5.0. FT based on DT yielding T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Fanning of cirrus
indicates outflow good in most sectors. Interaction with the New
Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are
anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally
agree on a southeast track with little change in intensity.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 20.8S 166.7E mov SE at 20kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.9S 168.8E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 24.6S 170.8E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 25.8S 172.5E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 302000 UTC.
Jan 30/1356 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.2 South
163.6 East at 301200 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation. Cyclone moving eastsoutheast at about 20 knots and
expected to curve southeast in the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute
average winds near the centre estimated at about 80 knots, winds over
47 knots within 60 miles of centre and over 33 knots within 130 miles
of the centre.
A persistent cold dark grey overcast has proved difficult to locate
the LLCC. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a northwest
steering flow, sandwiched between the 250hPa subtropical ridge to
the north and a large baroclinic low near Norfolk island. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment.
However, the resultant shear is negligible given the large
translational speed of the system. Dvorak analysis based on embedded
centre with a surrounding CDG shade giving a T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET
=5.0. FT based on DT yielding T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Fanning of cirrus
indicates outflow good in most sectors. Interaction with the New
Caledonia landmass and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are
anticipated to restrict further development. Global models generally
agree on a southeast track with little change in intensity.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 310000 UTC near 20.8S 166.7E mov SE at 20kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311200 UTC near 22.9S 168.8E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010000 UTC near 24.6S 170.8E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011200 UTC near 25.8S 172.5E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 302000 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/301352ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
IMMEDIATE DELIVERY REQ TO AMEMBASSY SUVA
AMEMBASSY SUVA REQ PASS TO USAID OFDA ADVISOR
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 18.3S 163.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 163.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 20.3S 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 22.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.9S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 27.0S 173.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 164.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTH-
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTION AND A RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS
BECOMING ELONGATED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A REGION OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS, TC 10P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT IS STEERED
BY A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL LOW POLEWARD OF NEW CALEDONIA. BY TAU 48
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE LOW
FILLS AND MERGES WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE INTENSITY
OF TC 10P WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z AND
311500Z.
TC JIM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT GETS CLOSER TO NEW CALEDONIA AND VANUATU. IT SEEMS IT WILL PASS BETWEEN BOTH ISLANDS.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
80kts still.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2008 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.6 South
165.3 East at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving
eastsoutheast at about 15 knots and expected to curve southeast in
the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of
centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.
LLCC still difficult to locate and remains embedded within
surrounding white shade. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a
northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near
Norfolk island. Outflow remains good in all quadrant. CIMMS indicates
Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment near 25S. Dvorak
analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding W shade giving a
T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and
cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict
further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast
track with graduall weakening.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 20.6S 168.4E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.6S 170.8E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 24.2S 172.5E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 25.0S 173.3E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 310200 UTC.
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 30/2008 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 18.6 South
165.3 East at 301800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface report. Cyclone moving
eastsoutheast at about 15 knots and expected to curve southeast in
the next 12 hours. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 80 knots, winds over 47 knots within 60 miles of
centre and over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre.
LLCC still difficult to locate and remains embedded within
surrounding white shade. Cyclone lies in a diffluent region, under a
northwest steering flow, north and a large baroclinic low near
Norfolk island. Outflow remains good in all quadrant. CIMMS indicates
Jim is moving into an increasing sheared environment near 25S. Dvorak
analysis based on embedded centre with a surrounding W shade giving a
T5.0. PT=4.5 and MET =5.0. FT based on DT yielding
T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24hrs. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass and
cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia are anticipated to restrict
further development. Global models generally agree on a southeast
track with graduall weakening.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 310600 UTC near 20.6S 168.4E mov SE at 15kt with 80kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 22.6S 170.8E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 24.2S 172.5E mov SE at 12kt with 70kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 25.0S 173.3E mov SE at 10kt with 65kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 310200 UTC.
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A6 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 31/0820 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 21.9 South
168.9 East at 310600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT IR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 25 knots and expected to decelerate in the next 12
to 18 hours to 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the
next 6 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 25 nautical miles of
centre, over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and over
33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.
Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre pattern with a surrounding
DG shade yields a DT4.0, PT=3.5 and MET =4.0. FT based on DT yielding
T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24hrs. System is rapidly moving southeast under a deep
northwest steering flow. The 250hPa baroclinic low near Norfolk
Island is filling up and as a mid level subtropical ridge builds up
near 30S it is expected to slow Jim and even possibly curve the
cyclone northwest as a weakened system. However, GFS and NOGAPS
differ from this scenario and continue moving the cyclone southeast.
Outflow has become restricted in the southeastern semicricle. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into a 10 to 20 knots shear zone but the
resultant shear over the system is expected to be negligible for the
next 12 to 24 hours. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass,
Vanuatu Islands to the north and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia
are expected to gradually weaken Jim.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 24.2S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 25.9S 172.6E mov SE at 12kt with 55kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 27.2S 173.0E mov SSE at 10kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020600 UTC near 27.4S 173.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 311400 UTC.
Jan 31/0820 UTC 2006 UTC.
Tropical Cyclone JIM [955hPa] centre was located near 21.9 South
168.9 East at 310600 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT IR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southeast at about 25 knots and expected to decelerate in the next 12
to 18 hours to 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 80 knots, decreasing to 70 knots in the
next 6 hours. Expect winds over 63 knots within 25 nautical miles of
centre, over 47 knots within 60 nautical miles of the centre and over
33 knots within 120 nautical miles of the centre.
Dvorak analysis based on embedded centre pattern with a surrounding
DG shade yields a DT4.0, PT=3.5 and MET =4.0. FT based on DT yielding
T4.0/5.0/W1.0/24hrs. System is rapidly moving southeast under a deep
northwest steering flow. The 250hPa baroclinic low near Norfolk
Island is filling up and as a mid level subtropical ridge builds up
near 30S it is expected to slow Jim and even possibly curve the
cyclone northwest as a weakened system. However, GFS and NOGAPS
differ from this scenario and continue moving the cyclone southeast.
Outflow has become restricted in the southeastern semicricle. CIMMS
indicates Jim is moving into a 10 to 20 knots shear zone but the
resultant shear over the system is expected to be negligible for the
next 12 to 24 hours. Interaction with the New Caledonia landmass,
Vanuatu Islands to the north and cooler SSTs south of New Caledonia
are expected to gradually weaken Jim.
FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 311800 UTC near 24.2S 171.0E mov SE at 15kt with 70kt
close to the centre
24hrs valid at 010600 UTC near 25.9S 172.6E mov SE at 12kt with 55kt
close to the centre
OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 011800 UTC near 27.2S 173.0E mov SSE at 10kt with 40kt
close to the centre
48hrs valid at 020600 UTC near 27.4S 173.0E mov SSW at 05kt with 35kt
close to the centre
The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone JIM will
be issued around 311400 UTC.
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