MAJOR COLD COMING TO THE US FEB 5-20

[Extremeweatherguy]

From JB this morning:

He says that if we see the worst case cold from this arctic outbreak, that we should expect a 0 degree or colder low in Chicago, a 10 degree or colder low in NYC and a 26 degree or colder low in Orlando and Brownsville! Could get very chilly. I do not even know the last time Orlando has been 26 degrees or colder! So you guys may be in for a real dose of winter soon. Also, a 26 degree low in Orlando would probably mean 30-35 in south Florida. And if it hit 26 in Brownsville...then we could be talking about teens in Houston!

teens for the houston area, not since jan. 1996!, bush iah 19 degrees that morning of the 8th, but will see

yeah, it's been awhile, but if you look back at past decades...a 10 year wait for teens in Houston is somewhat uncommon. We are overdue for teens in Houston (though there is no such thing as overdue in meteorology). I think it is certainly a possibility...especially if Brownsville reached 26.

[aggiecutter]

The 12z Ensembles look very cold in the long range...

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/ens/t ... 12812.html

[Portastorm]

Aggiecutter, you got that right! That may be the coldest ensemble look that I have seen yet this winter, especially beyond 300 hrs. Wow!

The western ridge amplifies enough to bring the polar flow down south and the set-up appears to hit the (Texas will freeze) parameters Air Force Met outlined in his post on another thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=260.

And if I'm not mistaken, isn't that the polar vortex sitting over the Great Lakes beyond 300 hrs?

If this verifies ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow. With such good model agreement on the cold and with it looking to begin in less than 300 hrs...I am beginning to feel that there is a good chance that this verifies. If the ensembles are right then I wouldn't be surprised to see snow in Houston before winter is through! (lets hope)

[PTPatrick]

From JB this morning:

He says that if we see the worst case cold from this arctic outbreak, that we should expect a 0 degree or colder low in Chicago, a 10 degree or colder low in NYC and a 26 degree or colder low in Orlando and Brownsville! Could get very chilly. I do not even know the last time Orlando has been 26 degrees or colder! So you guys may be in for a real dose of winter soon. Also, a 26 degree low in Orlando would probably mean 30-35 in south Florida. And if it hit 26 in Brownsville...then we could be talking about teens in Houston!

If it's going to hit 26 in Orlando, I'd expect much colder in Chicago and NY, as in at most 5 in NYC and a good ways below 0 in Chicago. But that's just me

Take JB for what you will.

Actually crazy low temps in the SE dont always translate to bone chilling freaking cold up north...i.e. January of 2003 I was living in Tallahassee, FL and we had a low of 13 (that was the temp at my house), central Fl was well into the 20s and Daytona Beach of Ocean effect snow flurries on the beach...and that same morning the lows in Minnesota and Wisconsin were roughly in the up singles to around 11-12 I believe. That morning the NE was colder due to the position of the trough, but certianly it wasnt colder than single digits in the I-95 corridor.

[jimvb]

Over and over again for the past two or three weeks, GFS has been predicting an arctic outbreak and much colder weather for the Northeast, but it never comes. First it is predicted for the last week of January. Here we are, like late March instead of January. Then it was supposed to be the first week of February. Now it looks like that's mild, too. I notice that the GFS 6-hour precipitation maps get "diamondy" and "blocky" after about 180 hours or so. This is when it enters the way-out flakey phase. And it is always at this point that the arctic outbreak comes. Once the day comes in reach of the 6-hour map range, its arctic cold disappears.

I think there is something wrong with the GFS. There must be underlying assumptions in GFS, especially the beyond 180 part, that are no longer satisfied for some reason. My guess is global warming. It is going to be warmer than this model, constructed mostly in the premillennium, predicts. I don't think there will be any arctic outbreak this year.

All this mild weather is nice, but I feel threatened by it. It means the GOM will never cool properly, and it will be the world's biggest bathtub, and just like last year, hurricanes will blow up when they enter it, meaning another horrendous hurricane season.

[TheWeatherService.com]

Ive decided to extent the "cold period" to Feb 20th as opposed to the 15th as it has come to my attention that I have overestimated the speed of the MJO cycle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Over and over again for the past two or three weeks, GFS has been predicting an arctic outbreak and much colder weather for the Northeast, but it never comes. First it is predicted for the last week of January. Here we are, like late March instead of January. Then it was supposed to be the first week of February. Now it looks like that's mild, too. I notice that the GFS 6-hour precipitation maps get "diamondy" and "blocky" after about 180 hours or so. This is when it enters the way-out flakey phase. And it is always at this point that the arctic outbreak comes. Once the day comes in reach of the 6-hour map range, its arctic cold disappears.

I think there is something wrong with the GFS. There must be underlying assumptions in GFS, especially the beyond 180 part, that are no longer satisfied for some reason. My guess is global warming. It is going to be warmer than this model, constructed mostly in the premillennium, predicts. I don't think there will be any arctic outbreak this year.

All this mild weather is nice, but I feel threatened by it. It means the GOM will never cool properly, and it will be the world's biggest bathtub, and just like last year, hurricanes will blow up when they enter it, meaning another horrendous hurricane season.

I would not base everything on the GFS. The key with this outbreak is VERY cold air in Alaska and a great pattern setup in February which will allow it to happen. BTW, most models are currently in agreement with an arctic outbreak occurring in Feb, and the ensembles show some of the coldest air in years! I think an outbreak of arctic air IS coming...all the signs and requirements are there. Unless you have a sound meteorological reason behind it not coming, then there is really no reason it should not. We are slowly being perfectly set up for what I think will be the coldest February in years.

[TheWeatherService.com]

Over and over again for the past two or three weeks, GFS has been predicting an arctic outbreak and much colder weather for the Northeast, but it never comes. First it is predicted for the last week of January. Here we are, like late March instead of January. Then it was supposed to be the first week of February. Now it looks like that's mild, too. I notice that the GFS 6-hour precipitation maps get "diamondy" and "blocky" after about 180 hours or so. This is when it enters the way-out flakey phase. And it is always at this point that the arctic outbreak comes. Once the day comes in reach of the 6-hour map range, its arctic cold disappears.

I think there is something wrong with the GFS. There must be underlying assumptions in GFS, especially the beyond 180 part, that are no longer satisfied for some reason. My guess is global warming. It is going to be warmer than this model, constructed mostly in the premillennium, predicts. I don't think there will be any arctic outbreak this year.

All this mild weather is nice, but I feel threatened by it. It means the GOM will never cool properly, and it will be the world's biggest bathtub, and just like last year, hurricanes will blow up when they enter it, meaning another horrendous hurricane season.

I would not base everything on the GFS. The key with this outbreak is VERY cold air in Alaska and a great pattern setup in February which will allow it to happen. BTW, most models are currently in agreement with an arctic outbreak occurring in Feb, and the ensembles show some of the coldest air in years! I think an outbreak of arctic air IS coming...all the signs and requirements are there. Unless you have a sound meteorological reason behind it not coming, then there is really no reason it should not. We are slowly being perfectly set up for what I think will be the coldest February in years.

Correct

I try not to look at models in long term forecasts, but instead current indexes, trends, and how climo says they will relate and what type of weather they will bring in the future. Everything in the world correlates to each other in some way

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Considering what a mild Winter it has been thus far, I'll believe a lasting shift when it actually starts to happen. Not knocking the models, or anyone here, just a tad skeptical at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering what a mild Winter it has been thus far, I'll believe a lasting shift when it actually starts to happen. Not knocking the models, or anyone here, just a tad skeptical at this point.

You are forgetting December though. In December it was very cold. So really, this warm pattern has only been around for the last month.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yes it was cold, but at least in my area it wasn't really all that bad considering that it was December after all. If you average out this Winter thus far (December and January), the first half hasn't been that snowy and has been quite mild. I'm not saying that we may not have a week here and there yet with snowy/cold weather, but over all I think it will stay peaceful and mild.

[Tyler]

Considering what a mild Winter it has been thus far, I'll believe a lasting shift when it actually starts to happen. Not knocking the models, or anyone here, just a tad skeptical at this point.

You are forgetting December though. In December it was very cold. So really, this warm pattern has only been around for the last month.

See, this is what people are forgetting. December. The 1st half of December was very cold, one of the coldest 1st halfs ever. Then came the start of the warm pattern that has lasted until now. I would agree with some of you that say you are skeptical of the upcoming cold pattern, however, we have seen extreme cold here in the US already this winter, and I believe that the pattern will rewind right back to that. We have already seen it, and it looks like to close out winter, we will see it again. The warm pattern will literally collapse onto itself. The GFS and Euro sure are encouraging.

[Tyler]

Yes it was cold, but at least in my area it wasn't really all that bad considering that it was December after all. If you average out this Winter thus far (December and January), the first half hasn't been that snowy and has been quite mild. I'm not saying that we may not have a week here and there yet with snowy/cold weather, but over all I think it will stay peaceful and mild.

The upcoming pattern will be anything but peaceful and mild.

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. the 18Z GFS shows a nice blast of cold coming straight down to TX on day 7. I predict that next weekend will be the START to a serious pattern change, but it will in no way be the heart of it. I think our coldest weather comes between Feb. 4/5th and Feb. 20th, with a peak between the 8th and 16th.

[Tyler]

wow. the 18Z GFS shows a nice blast of cold coming straight down to TX on day 7. I predict that next weekend will be the START to a serious pattern change, but it will in no way be the heart of it. I think our coldest weather comes between Feb. 4/5th and Feb. 20th, with a peak between the 8th and 16th.

Agreed, 12z is also encouraging. It looks like we may have a cold front next weekend that will put us right back into winter. Probably just knock down temps to normal or maybe slight below, but that cold front will open the door for bitterly arctic air to slide through the US, as a ridge builds in the west, and a nice trough settles in the east. IMO, the start of the cold pattern starts sometime next weekend...

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

So this is looking like it might be the real deal? I hope it's prolonged over the entire Gulf coast so it can cool down the Gulf waters too. That can only help us as we go into hurricane season. But let's not talk about Cane season right now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So this is looking like it might be the real deal? I hope it's prolonged over the entire Gulf coast so it can cool down the Gulf waters too. That can only help us as we go into hurricane season. But let's not talk about Cane season right now.

Yes, this is looking more and more like the real deal. The latest zone ideas from Joe Bastardi call for more of the same this week with mild weather, a few rain chances and pacific fronts, but he, like I, see the change starting the week of Feb. 5th. He says during the week of the 5th arctic air will spill southward and the southern stream will set up, he also says that the southern plains will be in for, and I quote, "prolonged late season cold and snow/ice events". Sounds promising to me! I just hope we get a little snow down this way (if even just a few flurries)...it would be a nice way to end the winter.

[Jim Hughes]

Ive decided to extent the "cold period" to Feb 20th as opposed to the 15th as it has come to my attention that I have overestimated the speed of the MJO cycle.

Not to sure if you are referring to what I mentioned to you in the other place last night about the speed of the MJO but it's nice to know you may have considered it. Of course you could be right on target.

The phase 6 reading did get mildy stronger today. As you well know it can change rapidly though. I would keep an eye on the SOI as an indicator here. This might give us a clue to any rapid changes.

One other thing. I am still perplexed as to why so many of the mets are disregarding this past weeks stratosphere warming as a warning sign. Especially considering it's extreme strength.

Time will tell if I will end up being correct about the cold at mid month. Or the snow for that matter.

Nice to have you on board.


Jim

[Air Force Met]

One other thing. I am still perplexed as to why so many of the mets are disregarding this past weeks stratosphere warming as a warning sign. Especially considering it's extreme strength.

Jim

Are you speaking of the 10mb level correlations? If you are, do you have a link to the 10mb levels? I'm being lazy but wanted to look at them.