Even at the 150-day mark...

[Ixolib]

...I continue to be completely amazed at Katrina's surge. If anyone ever believes that the winds of a hurricane are the primary issue, I beg them to think again. No doubt, storm surge is the major killer, the major destroyer, and the major life-changer.

For me - and countless others on the NGOM - the winds of a 'cane no longer hold the same level of amazement that they once did. Surge potential is now what gets my attention...



Source: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/KATRINA/Notice.pdf

[HURAKAN]

KATRINA WAS JUST AMAZING, THERE'S NO OTHER WORD TO DESCRIBE IT!

[wxman57]

I made an animation of the surge projections in that PDF file. One thing I notice in the wind/surge projections is that the wind arrived well before the peak surge. That means many homes could have sustained significant wind damage prior to being flooded by the surge. Could be an insurance issue to address.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/katsurgeanim.gif

[MGC]

Water is the primary killer in hurricanes either from the surge or inland flooding from rains. Don't understand why the NHC uses wind to rank hurricane strength......MGC

[Stratosphere747]

Water is the primary killer in hurricanes either from the surge or inland flooding from rains. Don't understand why the NHC uses wind to rank hurricane strength......MGC

I've been thinking about that too lately. I have to assume it's due to the fact of being able to measure the wind speed with recon and such in a more accurate manner.

It would be nice to see a scale with both values built into them. One with the known wind speed, which they have for the most part become very good at, and then including the potential SS values as well.

I'm sure if the warning for Katrina was winds of Category 3 strength with a SS value of Category 5, action from La to Miss would have been taken much sooner, and lives could have been saved.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

A direct hit by a storm like Katrina (one so powerful and large) on a high population area like the Northern Gulf Coast, was something I never thought I'd see it my lifetime. Truly sad and frightening

[Opal storm]

I think the power of wind is really starting to be underrated.Yes,surge is extremely catastrophic but so is wind,and wind damage is much more widespread than surge damage.

[Recurve]

Thanks biloxi for the map and your observations.

Being where I am, surge has always been the concern. Apparently the Keys topography would keep surge under what the northern GOM has seen, but then we're not at 23 feet either -- more like 6.

There's more misunderstanding of surge than of wind effects IMO. Wilma's surge in the Keys seemed to come hours after the peak wind, it was a bayside surge from a huge-eyed recuving storm to our north -- not the expected surge from an oceanside storm to the south (though we do have water on both sides, so I never assumed the bayside was safe).

I wonder if the picture of surge being pushed ahead of a storm isn't way too simple. Surge can get dragged ashore, inland waterbodies cause complex channeling, etc. There's some speculation here that Wilma's surge was actually re-surge -- the approaching storm blew the water out of Florida Bay first, and when the wind was passing, the water simply sloshed back, climbing 6-8 feet above MSL. Seems this could happen other places too, like sections of gulf or outer banks coast.

Accurate surge maps for particular tracks and intensities are going to be so much more important than what we typically focus on -- "where's the eye gonna make landfall?" Unless you're in a trailer or a Cat 5, it really is all about the surge.

[Ixolib]

Accurate surge maps for particular tracks and intensities are going to be so much more important than what we typically focus on -- "where's the eye gonna make landfall?" Unless you're in a trailer or a Cat 5, it really is all about the surge.

Excellent points, Recurve - especially the one quoted above. The issue of surge, I believe, is sorely underrated and the public in general has, at best, a very limited and barely a layman's understanding of its potential. It might be interesting for the NHC/TPC to begin issuing less "generalized" forecasts and instead provide forecasts that are factually specific to a particular geographical/coastal area. This as opposed to using the SS scale as a sole indicator of potential damage.

In other words, a different cat three hitting The Keys, or Tampa, or Pensacola, or N.O. or the upper east coast ,or Texas coast will each have a significantly (and specifically) different impact on each area - especially in terms of surge. So, if a storm is forecast to landfall at "XYZ", it would seem helpful to forewarn the public in specific terms relative to that specific piece of coastline.

BTW - Absolutely love your part of the world the best of all - and I've been all around it!! We are moving to St. Petersburg to, among other reasons, be much closer to The Keys than we are now. In my way of thinking, anyone who is fortunate enough to live in The Keys needs to pinch themselves every morning just to be sure it's not all a dream!!

[f5]

remember Katrina had 175 mph sustained winds for a pretty long time at her peak.175 mph sustained winds with gust well over 200 will cause alot of turbulence

[Pearl River]

The S.S scale was created because of Camille. I think there needs to be some kind of scale based on wind speed, pressure and surge potential.
Wind speed= cat 3
Pressure= cat 4
Surge= cat 5
total 12n divided by 3= cat 4

Just a little something to think about.

[Ixolib]

The S.S scale was created because of Camille. I think there needs to be some kind of scale based on wind speed, pressure and surge potential.
Wind speed= cat 3
Pressure= cat 4
Surge= cat 5
total 12n divided by 3= cat 4

Just a little something to think about.

Hmmmm... Interesting.

And I also did not know that the SS scale came about because of Camille. Interesting also!!

[Audrey2Katrina]

I agree, Pearl, very interesting and something to think about.

A2K

[Bluefrog]

If you haven't been to the gulf coast ... you should come see for yourself the destruction caused by Katrina. There are no words and the photos do not do us justice to what we thru here.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Been there and done that, Bluefrog, well said. When one actually drives/rides/walks amid the ruin in the wake of this storm, one is literally left speechless.

A2K

[Pearl River]

Blue. You can tell them till you are blue in the face(pun intended), some will tell you they don't need to see it. They just automatically no more than you and will tell you it couldn't caused that much damage. I drove by the Pass Christian Police Dept, or what was left of it, a couple of weeks ago. I trained some PD dispatchers early last year. It took my breath away. Waveland got it bad, but I believe Pass was the worst.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I believe Pass was the worst in Camille as well. I was right in the middle of that one and it was beyond belief!

A2K

[frederic79]

Well said, Bluefrog. Isn't it amazing that we're almost into February and our town still looks like it does? It's overwhelming, simply overwhelming. Imagine what it would be like without the thousands of church volunteers that have traveled from across the country to help! I hope your situation is improving... we still have a long way to go... one day at a time.