Hurricane Alley 2006 season Landfall Forecast

[cycloneye]

This changes month to month so what you see in this graphic in January may not be the same as in June.What I see from this graphic is that they point out to a cape verde season that will be very active by only looking at the probabilities.And also the GOM looks less active according to them.

But folks dont take this as a given because it is difficult to predict landfalls with many months in advance although you can predict a pattern of more Cape Verde systems with La Nina pattern that holds on in the Pacific.But even ENSO is not easy to predict as variables can occur such as Kelvin waves that may warm the Pacific waters in an unexpected way and then things can change in a hurry to neutral-weak el nino status.

[Scorpion]

Interesting that they give Cuba a big shot but not Florida. I figure if western Cuba gets hit alot then Florida should be too?

[ROCK]

Blah Blah Bah..

They are also predicting no cat 3-5 to hit anywhere in the US with very minimal cat1-2 landfalls. This pretty much says we could possibly see no US landfalls this year of any cat. NO, I dont think I will take this as a given.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think predicting intensities of storms and landfall targets in January is like throwing a dart at a dartboard and trying to get a bullseye on the first try.

[ROCK]

I think predicting intensities of storms and landfall targets in January is like throwing a dart at a dartboard and trying to get a bullseye on the first try.

agreed...I have no idea how they came up with this landfall prediction. I mean, what are they looking at in Jan that ables them to predict landfall percentages 6 months prior.

[Tyler]

Looks like they asked some kid to use different colors to outline the US. Looks like the kid did a nice job! But seriously, its a joke, there is no possible way AT ALL to forecast the best landfall percentages this far out. Its ridiculous.

For instance, look at Texas, how do they know that that little sliver of the coastline has a 40% chance of landfall. I mean, c'mon.

[WindRunner]

Really, since when is the chance of Georgia getting a landfalling storm the same as the Bahamas, and greater than the chance of a storm hitting anywhere in Florida? That's just . . . for a lack of a better word, ridiculous.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

There is NO WAY to even make a very reasonable guess this far
in advance. It's a good try, but it just doesn't fly.

Map is very inconsistent. If 70% for cuba, and the storm doesn't
go to gulf coast where chance is 0-40% how can it be 0% over florida?
It does emphasize a bad Cape Verde season.

It is really just guesswork this far out. This map is simply lacking
in consistency, though not entirely devoid of reason. But the unpredictability of factors this far out renders it simply guesswork.

I cannot trust this map at all.

I will give the map makers friendly compliment for the effort to try to factor
everything in advance...but i can't trust it.

[Pearl River]

They list nothing for Louisiana and upper Texas. Somehow I can't buy that.

[Derek Ortt]

I've done some research on seasonal forecasting, and there is NO skill in predicting the tracks seasonally. There is on a month by month basis, but for HA to come out and make percentage forecasts is just an attempt to make money, IMO, as the science is not even close to being ready to predict this with any accuracy

[Extremeweatherguy]

A few major flaws with this map include:

-If there are such high landfall percentages in Cuba...then why are they so low along the gulf coast?

-The same goes with the Yucatan. If they are so high on the Yucatan, then how come they are so low along the Gulf coast?

-How did they narrow down such a small portion of TX to be in the 40% chance range?

-Why is there such a high difference in the Bahamas? One section is under the 30% area and another is under the 50% area.

-Why are the windward isles. under a 70% chance, yet other Caribbean isles. are under a 30% chance?

-Why are their no chances over 30% in the Bay of Campeche area?

-Why is western NYC in a 30% chance range and eastern NYC in a 50% range?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Way too early to have any real idea of the general weather pattern in Hurricane Season 2006. I'll come back in June and July (or maybe May) and have a look see then

[Swimdude]

I'm usually one to agree with most things posted on this website. But this map... Oh, this map... Based on the last 3-5 years of intense activity just about everywhere, I couldn't imagine that the GOM will be that tranquil.

I think they gave a child some crayons and told him/her to trace some pretty lines on a map.

Perhaps that's too harsh.

But I do not agree with that information.

[Jim Cantore]

I agree with one thing especially

If La Nina shapes out then I think the Carolinas get nailed

[senorpepr]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

[CajunMama]

Senor!!!!!

[wxmann_91]

A few major flaws with this map include:

-If there are such high landfall percentages in Cuba...then why are they so low along the gulf coast?

-The same goes with the Yucatan. If they are so high on the Yucatan, then how come they are so low along the Gulf coast?

-How did they narrow down such a small portion of TX to be in the 40% chance range?

-Why is there such a high difference in the Bahamas? One section is under the 30% area and another is under the 50% area.

-Why are the windward isles. under a 70% chance, yet other Caribbean isles. are under a 30% chance?

-Why are their no chances over 30% in the Bay of Campeche area?

-Why is western NYC in a 30% chance range and eastern NYC in a 50% range?

Actually the biggest flaw - Tampa and Miami are both in a "safe zone", I guess storms always dodge these cities for some reason?

[wxmann_91]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1) Someone along a coast in the Atlantic basin will be hit by a tropical cyclone.

2) If said tropical cyclone strikes a country outside of the United States, the media will under-play the event. Meanwhile, people on Storm2k will hype this to be the worst storm since the last storm to strike there.

3) If said tropical cyclone strikes the United States, regardless of strength--but most notable at 60KT, there will be at least a dozen threads started on Storm2k involving said tropical cyclone's strength at landfall. Locals will tend to nudge the severity up one category. Either way, these threads will continue without any progress in the debate.

4) (notso)Greatone will declare a code ornage on some portion of the United States from a "tropical cyclone" of category one intensity. I put tropical cyclone in quotations because in reality, the said system will only have sustained winds of 25KT and no closed circulation.

5) Young Storm2k-yahoos will stay up all night rooting for a storm to reach category five intensity. They will get mad and/or cry when said storm fails to reach the aforementioned intensity.

6) Referring to prediction number three... the main point that the "locals" will use to nudge the severity of a tropical cyclone up one category will be "recon can't measure the entire cyclone continuously," or "the dropsondes fail."

7) Referring to prediction number five... the same young Storm2k-yahoos will overuse emotions. This will be amplifed from last season because of the reintroduction of the "quick reply" feature.

8) There will be three times as many "Season Cancel" threads or threads regarding SAL than threads involving the upgrading/debate of a tropical cyclone.

9) Somebody, somewhere will become poll-happy.

10) Referring to prediction number nine... the same poll-happy posters will be frequently trout-slapped for making new threads when existing threads already cover the same topic. However, regardless to the frequency or size of said trout-slaps, the poll-happy poster will never grasp this concept.

I'm sure that's not overusing emoticons

[Tyler]

Oh man, that was funny senorpepr!

[SkeetoBite]

Here are senorpepr's long-awaited 2006 Seasonal Forecast:

1...

Wow, we were going to put out our first ever seasonal forecast, but it's so close to yours, we're going to skip it this year!