Nor'easter Disco

[Jeffweather]

Hello All,

For those of you who are interested I did a complete write-up on next week's nor'easter.

http://www.weatherprofessor.com/

"Hot Topic" section

Jeff Berardelli
Meteorologist NYC

[Steve H.]

Thanks Jeff. Glad to see some of you posting....its been quiet here. The GFS is indeed too far east, and the answer is somewhere between the Euro and the GFS, which should bring accumulating snows into the big cities. How much? I don't no. You left the number of weeks out of the Alaska to CONUS cold transition, so I'm guessing 2. Another point, my rule is when its relatively mild in Fairbanks, its cold in the central/east US in the heart of winter. Also, when it stays cool in Florida (my location) its mild in the NE. So the question will be does the I-95 corridor get a good snow? Well, rain first, then a slow transition. How slow or fast is the question. But with the gradient tightening between the high to NW and the low developing off the mid-Atlantic, cold air should filter in as the low deepens. This storm may have a few tricks up its sleeve too, due to its relatively slower movement than we've seen in a while with the progressive flow. Not a straightforward forecast by any means. After this storm the temps should gradually begin to get AOB normal, then head below normal towards the end of the month. Agree the ULP over the Lakes during this is quite funky so a deeper digging trough seems in the cards, maybe providing a colder solution in the end. We'll see what happens. Cheers!!

[Tyler]

The 18z GFS has come in, and it does not look too good for the Northeast. Luckily, its the 18z GFS. Wouldn't put to much stock in it.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Should be interesting to see how this one pans out. I'm personally going with a more Eastward track, but who knows?

[Jeffweather]

Well another day is upon us soon... and we'll have another 50 different solutions to sift through!
Jeff

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Indeed

[Stephanie]

Thanks Jeff for your insight into this storm!

[WindRunner]

Very good discussion, Jeff. And, just to make sure, are you or are you not including DC in your "I-95" cities? Because I sure hope you are . . . I have had enough cold rain for the next few winters.

[Steve H.]

OK, the 12Z GFS has come around, and gives encouragement for those in New England. I would be quite excited about this if I were still in the Tri-State area, as it shows initial development of the low further to the south and west of its previous position by several hundred miles. This is a good indication that the model is recognizing the pattern, and has come into agreement with the UK models and NOGAPS to some degree. Hopefully this doesn't come back too far west to leave the I-95 corridor in the wet, but I don't think so. The GFS does support snow to the Tri-State area to the coast or at least some snow at the coast. The NAM looks a bit warm, and I wouldn't go for this mild solution given the position of the low. If it deepens as shown while staying offshore, a strengthening NE flow should allow more vertical cooling. Jeff, you nailed this one, models coming back into line. Let's see if they go more negatively-tilted and deeper, which should allow it to slow down. Cheers!!

[Jeffweather]

Thanks for saying that I nailed this one but... the storm is not until Monday or Tuesday. So far so good but far from over.

this afternoon it is...
NAM/GFS/EC vs. UK/GGEM

odd switching going on except for the EC.

NOGAPS... somewhere in between

[Steve H.]

Jeff, check out 0z NOGAPS. bombs low between H60 - H72 from MA to CC! That's a sig change to previous