How much storm surge: Category 3 Hit Tampa Bay?

[JonathanBelles]

I highly doubt the water will go up as high as those maps say.

Sounds like what everyone used to say around here - until Katrina came along...

i believe waters will go up as far or farther than in those maps

[wxman57]

It's not all size - Camille was tiny. Don't get too comfortable just because a storm might be Charley-sized.

Camille wasn't tiny. I'm looking at a .rex file of Camille's wind radii and storm surge. Hurricane force winds extended out to 60 nautical miles, that's well above average, even though it's about half the size of Katrina. Charley's huricane force winds extended out between 10 and 20 miles.

[Ixolib]

So during a storm the size of Ivan or Katrina,
the surge if it is Cat 3 would be anywhere from 18-23 feet
and if it hits Cat 5 in the GOM prior to some weakening
before landfall, 25-35 feet?

Actually, a storm like Katrina moving NE into Tampa Bay could conceivably produce a surge closer to 20-28 feet into Tampa Bay. But don't assume a Cat 5 would produce a significantly higher surge just based upon the peak core wind, particularly if the Cat 5 winds were blowing only over a small part of the ocean. Only a Cat 5 with a very large core of Cat 4-5 winds would produce a much higher surge than a Cat 3 like Katrina.

And while I may be mistaken, I believe also that pressure plays a role as well. IOW, the lower the pressure, the higher the "bubble" of water from the normal level of the sea.

[thunderchief]

Lots of things go into potential surge...

intensity(size and windspeed), angle of approach, fetch, topography... last minute changes will not really be reflected in surge totals.

The worst case scenario would be an intense storm moving NE for a day or two and landfalling just north of Tampa.

[jasons2k]

I highly doubt the water will go up as high as those maps say.

Sounds like what everyone used to say around here - until Katrina came along...

i believe waters will go up as far or farther than in those maps

Scorpion, I disagree. Don't forget about Hillsborough Bay either into Tampa itself.

Full coverage:

http://www.tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/

A map with this one:

http://news.mongabay.com/2005/0916-ucf.html

This one is really interesting, it shows the actual vs. predicted storm surges since 1993 - and the actual is always higher:

http://ompl.marine.usf.edu/PORTS/surge.html

From Steve Lyons:

"Tampa has a much bigger storm surge potential than Miami," Lyons says, explaining that if storms of the exact same strength were to hit each city, the water would rise 50 to 70 percent higher in Tampa than it would in Miami."

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/speci ... tampa.html

[Ixolib]

Man-o-man... That stuff on Tampa Bay is just UNREAL. Thanks jschlitz - simply amazing.

[mike815]

yeah thanks man great stuff

[jasons2k]

No problem, glad you guys enjoyed the links

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Terrifying possibilities.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No problem, glad you guys enjoyed the links

thanks for links and info...
those predictions sure are very frightening
My neighborhood would be wiped out in no time in
a big storm.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

You have to remember the tide issue too. Even on the lowest lying Coast Line it would make a big difference if the storm arrives a high tide, low tide, or somewhere in the middle of the cycle.

[terstorm1012]

I would check with the State to see if they have any GIS data on your flood zones from various storms. Some states do and offer the info for free. You'll need a GIS program like ArcMap to view it though.

[jasons2k]

This one is great - it's interactive:

http://pubgis.co.pinellas.fl.us/hurricane/

Click on the "Click here to check your evacuation level" button to enter your address.

Regular maps:

http://www.marksellsit.com/North%20Pine ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/South%20Pine ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/Hillsborough ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/Pasco%20Hurr ... %20Map.JPG

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This one is great - it's interactive:

http://pubgis.co.pinellas.fl.us/hurricane/

Click on the "Click here to check your evacuation level" button to enter your address.

Regular maps:

http://www.marksellsit.com/North%20Pine ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/South%20Pine ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/Hillsborough ... %20Map.JPG

http://www.marksellsit.com/Pasco%20Hurr ... %20Map.JPG

Thank you very much for these links!
I have found out that I am in zone B. So if it's cat 2 and big...I gotta
get outta here.

[Cookiely]

I'm about a mile beyond the evacuation for a cat 5 so I'm not supposed to evacuate. They are always saying not to evacuate if your not in an evac zone to clear the roads for others that have to evacuate and to offer shelter to the ones who do have to evacuate. I have news for those in charge, I won't be staying if a cat 5 is bearing down on Tampa. I have a mobile home in the back of me and on the side of me and the home across the street has blue tarps on the roof. This block home might survive but with mobile homes coming apart and flying debris from them I wouldn't bet my life on it. Thanks for the link.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

These possibilities are REALLY REALLY disturbing...

[jasons2k]

I'm about a mile beyond the evacuation for a cat 5 so I'm not supposed to evacuate. They are always saying not to evacuate if your not in an evac zone to clear the roads for others that have to evacuate and to offer shelter to the ones who do have to evacuate. I have news for those in charge, I won't be staying if a cat 5 is bearing down on Tampa. I have a mobile home in the back of me and on the side of me and the home across the street has blue tarps on the roof. This block home might survive but with mobile homes coming apart and flying debris from them I wouldn't bet my life on it. Thanks for the link.

In your situation, I think you'd be making the right decision to leave. Better safe than sorry.