SOUTH PACIFIC: Tropical Cyclone Jim (10P)

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SOUTH PACIFIC: Tropical Cyclone Jim (10P)

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 26, 2006 4:44 pm

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Thursday the 26th of January 2006

A small low is located off the coast to the north-east of Townsville. This low
is expected to drift north-eastwards over the next 2 to 3 days. There is a
moderate potential that the low may develop into a tropical cyclone about
Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane


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Last edited by HURAKAN on Tue Jan 31, 2006 8:45 am, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 26, 2006 6:07 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 2140 UTC 26 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Developing tropical low with a central pressure of 998 hectopascals located
from an observation at Myrmidon Reef centred at 262100 UTC near 18.3 south
147.4 east and slow moving. Position Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours.

Clockwise winds at 20 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 40 knots over the next 6
to 18 hours.

Rough seas becoming very rough with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 270600UTC 18.5 degrees south and 148.8 degrees east with
central pressure 996 hPa and maximum winds to 35 knots.

Forecast position at 271800UTC 18.5 degrees south and 149.6 degrees east with
central pressure 994 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.



REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#3 Postby P.K. » Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:53 pm

Pressure down 1hPa.

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0042 UTC 27 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 997 hectopascals located at
270000 UTC near Myrmidon Reef at 18.3 south 147.4 east and near stationary.
Position Fair.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in the northern semicircle and 120
nautical miles of the centre in the southern semicircle.
FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots over the next
12 hours.

Elsewhere in the warning areas, clockwise winds at 20 to 30 knots increasing to
30 to 40 knots over the next 12 hours.

Rough seas becoming very rough with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 271200UTC 18.1 degrees south and 147.7 degrees east with
central pressure 995 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

Forecast position at 280000UTC 18.4 degrees south and 148.9 degrees east with
central pressure 992 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#4 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 27, 2006 2:08 am

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9S 147.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. AN-
IMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING DEEP CON-
VECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUR-
FACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS POOR.


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#5 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 27, 2006 3:59 am

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 3:04pm on Friday the 27th of January 2006

At 1pm EST a tropical low, 997 hPa, was located 160 kilometres north-east of
Townsville and moving in an easterly direction at 10 kilometres per hour.
The low is expected to continue moving eastwards away from the coast over the
weekend, and has high potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. However, it
is not expected to pose a direct threat to the Queensland coast.

Tropical Cyclone outlooks issued by Brisbane are available on
Weather By Fax 190 293 5278 at a cost of $1.38 per minute [GST incl] and
can also be accessed through the Bureau's Home Page http://www.bom.gov.au.

Please note that the Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre issues Tropical
Cyclone Outlooks that cover the Gulf of Carpentaria. See
http:/www.bom.gov.au/weather/nt/cyclone/ or to subscribe to this service
call Darwin 08 8920 3820.

-------------------------------------------------------

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0719 UTC 27 January 2006

GALE WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 995 hectopascals located at
270600 UTC near 18.1 south 148.6 east and moving east-northeast at 10 knots.
Position Good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 120 nautical miles north of the centre, and 180 nautical miles south of
the centre.

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 45 knots over the next
12 hours.

South of the centre, clockwise winds at 30 to 40 knots. North of the centre,
clockwise winds 20 to 30 knots increasing to 30 to 40 knots over the next 12
hours.

Seas rising very rough to high with increasing easterly and northwesterly swells

Forecast position at 271800UTC 18.3 degrees south and 149.3 degrees east with
central pressure 992 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

Forecast position at 280600UTC 18.1 degrees south and 150.7 degrees east with
central pressure 985 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots.



REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#6 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Jan 27, 2006 4:43 am

I think the next name is Jim.
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#7 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:44 am

HurricaneBill wrote:I think the next name is Jim.

Yup.
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#8 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:42 am

27/0833 UTC 18.0S 148.3E T1.5/1.5 99P -- South Pacific Ocean
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#9 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 27, 2006 10:02 am

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1320 UTC 27 January 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 995 hectopascals located at
271200 UTC near 17.9 south 149.2 east and moving east-northeast at 8 knots.
Position Good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the low centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 25 knots near the centre increasing to 35/40 knots over the
next 12 hours. Rough seas rising very rough to high during the next 12 hours.
Moderate swell.

Winds increasing further to 45/50 knots Saturday evening within 30 nautical
miles of centre. Seas becoming high to very high.

Forecast position at 280000UTC 18.0 degrees south and 150.3 degrees east with
central pressure 990 hPa and maximum winds to 40 knots.

Forecast position at 281200UTC 17.6 degrees south and 152.0 degrees east with
central pressure 985 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#10 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 27, 2006 3:42 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 1832 UTC 27 January 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
A developing tropical low with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals located at
271800 UTC near 17.7 south 149.9 east and moving east-northeast at 4 knots.
Position Good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the low centre.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 35 knots near the centre increasing to 35/40 knots over the
next 6 to 12 hours. Rough seas rising very rough to high during the next 12
hours. Moderate to Heavy swells.

Winds increasing further to 45/50 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of
centre. Seas becoming high to very high.

Forecast position at 280600UTC 17.7 degrees south and 150.5 degrees east with
central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

Forecast position at 281800UTC 17.4 degrees south and 152.0 degrees east with
central pressure 985 hPa and maximum winds to 50 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#11 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 4:35 pm

Image

WTPS21 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/272051ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.9S 148.8E TO 18.5S 153.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM­
AGERY AT 271800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 149.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.0S
148.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY 850 MB VORTICITY VALUES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST
12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUR-
THER INTENSIFICATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 282100Z.


JIM IS AROUND THE CORNER.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 5:52 pm

27/2033 UTC 17.8S 151.2E T2.5/2.5 99P -- South Pacific Ocean



A NEW TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BORN, ACCORDING TO DVORAK!
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:31 pm

Name: Jim
Severity Category: 1
Situation At: 10AM EST Saturday 28 January 2006
Warning Area: Nil
Watch Area: Nil
Location: 17.3S 149.5E
Recent Movement: NE at 5 km/h
Remarks: Tropical cyclone advices are not required at this time.

The next track map will be issued at 4pm EST Saturday 28 January 2006
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#14 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 27, 2006 7:38 pm

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF
METEOROLOGY, BRISBANE 0032 UTC 28 January 2006

STORM WARNING FOR NORTH EASTERN AREA

SITUATION
Tropical cyclone Jim with a central pressure of 990 hectopascals located at
280000 UTC near 17.3 south 149.5 east and moving north-northeast at 5 knots.
Position Good.

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the cyclone centre in the southwest quadrant and 110
nautical miles in other quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds to 35/40 knots. Rough seas rising very rough to high during the
next 12 hours. Moderate to Heavy swells.

Winds increasing further to 45/50 knots early Sunday within 30 nautical miles of
centre. Seas becoming high to very high.

Forecast position at 281200UTC 17.3 degrees south and 150.7 degrees east with
central pressure 988 hPa and maximum winds to 45 knots.

Forecast position at 290000UTC 17.0 degrees south and 152.5 degrees east with
central pressure 980 hPa and maximum winds to 55 knots.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours. Regular
weather observing ships use normal channels. Other ships please use either
email to marwxqld@bom.gov.au or fax to +61732398776 or satellite to SAC 41
through Land Earth Station Perth 222.

WEATHER BRISBANE
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#15 Postby wxmann_91 » Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:07 pm

Finally, a TC named after me!! :D But it's a "wimp" (relative to the cyclones that threatened western Australia earlier this month).
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#16 Postby WindRunner » Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:08 pm

Well, it may be a wimp, but it sure does look nice!

Image
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#17 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 27, 2006 8:39 pm

lol its jim hes no whimp
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#18 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 9:31 pm

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
Queensland Region
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
For 11 am EST on Saturday the 28th of January 2006

At 11am EST, Tropical Cyclone Jim, Category 1 with central pressure 990 hPa, was
located near 17S 149E, 370 km east of Innisfail, and is moving to the
north-northeast at 8 km/hr. The cyclone is expected to turn to a more easterly
track today, and continue this motion for at least the next 24 to 48 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Jim poses no immediate threat to the coast of Queensland.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 5 pm EST on Saturday 28 January.
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#19 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 27, 2006 9:54 pm

Image


WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/272051ZJAN06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10P (JIM) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 17.5S 149.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 065 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 149.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.1S 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.8S 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.6S 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.1S 156.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.8S 162.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 149.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10P (JIM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM
EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CYCLONE CENTER. TC 10P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS NORTH. THE OVERALL
STORM ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE 36 HOUR FORECAST POINT. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD
SPEED AND ENCOUNTER HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 272051Z JAN 06
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 272100). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
281500Z AND 290300Z.


JTWC'S FIRST ADVISORY ON JIM!
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#20 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 27, 2006 10:18 pm

yeahhhhhhhh
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