A Gold Mine For Those Interested In Historical Hurricanes

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Below is a link to the Hurricane Reanalysis Project's findings summery archive. It is updated with new findings on classic storms usually every few months. Enjoy:


http://sunburn.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat ... _5114.html


PS: I hear that the Great New England Hurricane of 1938 is next on the chopping block, and findings should start to be published in April.

[terstorm1012]

This should be a sticky. Great find!

[terstorm1012]

Okay after spending the morning surfing the site, I am impressed!

One surprise, the 1893 New York hurricane was a Cat. 1, not a 2, at landfall as I had previously thought.

and the 1903 South Jersey cane was a 1, with hurricane conditions along the Delaware Shore, but not in NYC.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This should be a sticky. Great find!

I agree, but I do not seem able to do so. Maybe one of the Mods can make such a message with the link.

[cycloneye]

I will make it a sticky thread that will be up for a week to make it more easy to find for those interested in this.

[terstorm1012]

awesome!!!

[terstorm1012]

More interesting data---1869 had not one but two major hurricanes (Cat 3) striking New England, one of which Hybridstorm has already posted about.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yup just an excerpt. Reminds me of 1954 with Carol and Edna.


Though it all fairness storm number two in 1869 was never officially upgraded to cat 3 at Main landfall, even though they make it clear in the data that in probably was a major storm at the time. Reason being they couldn't find enough data to be 100% sure, but they are within a hair of saying cat. 3. Just show how timid NOAA researcher are about over blowing storms, no pun intended.


BTW Most interesting thing I found is that NYC seem less likely than Easter Long Island, Cape Cod, or even Maine to be impacted by a major storm. Meaning a direct hit/landfall. At least that is what the evidence seem to point towards. I wonder why? Ideas anyone?


PS Thanks Cycloneye

[wxman57]

BTW Most interesting thing I found is that NYC seem less likely than Easter Long Island, Cape Cod, or even Maine to be impacted by a major storm. Meaning a direct hit/landfall. At least that is what the evidence seem to point towards. I wonder why? Ideas anyone?

That's easy. By the time a hurricane reaches that latitude, it's almost certainly recurving to the NNE-NE. A Cat 3 moving NNE would have to track over New Jersey to reach NYC, but it could remain over water and hit eastern Long Island or Cape Cod.

[JonathanBelles]

wow

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Makes sense. Thanks Wxman57.

[terstorm1012]

Unless there's a blocking high over Newfoundland and the storm is in the right place at the right time (or wrong place at wrong time---), NYC and the Jersey shoreline won't get that devastating hit.

The 1903 storm that hit south Jersey was in "the right place at the right time", and moved NNW into the coast.

The 1893 storm came in from the Southeast and was recurving.

From what I know about the 1821 storm, it was moving NNE on or just off of the Jersey Coast. Given its power over Long Island and CT, I imagine it was a 5 at some point before it struck NC and moved northward along the coast, or there were baroclinic influences involved as hurricane force winds were reported as far inland as Philadelphia. A reanalysis of THAT storm would be awesome--i imagine the records from that time are in poor condition though.

Also, given that the 1893 storm was weaker than I imagined I think the return time for MAJOR NYC hurricanes may be a whole lot longer, maybe a couple centuries rather than every 70 years. However just from looking at the database, it looks like the return time for the rest of the Northeast Coast for storms is a lot shorter than 70 years, maybe 30-40 instead.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Besides the 1821 storm of which you speak, I wish they could do a reanalysis of the storm of September 1815 which made landfall in Long Island. Sadly I agree with you in regards to the records issue. Otherwise the NHC would have at least partial official tracks for these hurricanes on their site.

[terstorm1012]

Besides the 1821 storm of which you speak, I wish they could do a reanalysis of the storm of September 1815 which made landfall in Long Island. Sadly I agree with you in regards to the records issue. Otherwise the NHC would have at least partial official tracks for these hurricanes on their site.

Hmm never heard of the September 1815 storm, care to share?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

For starters here you go:


http://www.kouroo.info/Thoreau/23September1815.pdf


Just input "Great September Gale of 1815" into any Search Engine, and I'm certain you'll find even more information.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Not sure about the sources of information, but I found another interesting site for older storms especially:


http://www.hurricaneville.com/historic.html

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'll give you one more link that I found that is quite good for historical hurricane landfalls in New England, with two caveats.


1. I do not think that the reconstructed wind damage data is too accurate. Because;


a) Not enough data to work with for storms before the mid-1800s.


b) It list F-3 type wind damage, but shows none on the map.


c) I know (from old Newspapers and Photos from my own area) that for example in Houlton, Woodstock NB, and Nova Scotia that both Carol and Edna caused at least F-2 type wind damage. even though they are not show by the model as doing much wind damage at all.


2. The sustained wind speed data in the reconstructed tracks prior to the mid-1800s seem questionable, and of course is not officially endorsed by NOAA.


Otherwise though there is a lot of interesting historical info at the site. Including tracks, diaries from the time, weather data (such as it was), and newspaper article data.



http://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/da ... -data.html


Enjoy!

[Jim Cantore]

Okay after spending the morning surfing the site, I am impressed!

One surprise, the 1893 New York hurricane was a Cat. 1, not a 2, at landfall as I had previously thought.

and the 1903 South Jersey cane was a 1, with hurricane conditions along the Delaware Shore, but not in NYC.

south jersey cane

I coulda been in the eye!

[terstorm1012]

Thanks Hybridstorm.

[terstorm1012]

Hybridstorm are you involved with this study?: http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/my ... 971284.htm