WPAC: PAGASA - Invest 98W - JTWC: TCFA CANCELLED

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Coredesat

#61 Postby Coredesat » Wed Jan 25, 2006 10:26 pm

Image

Looks like it just remembered what time of year it is.
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HURAKAN
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#62 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Jan 25, 2006 11:01 pm

It seems development is very unlikely at this moment.
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#63 Postby P.K. » Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:49 am

WWJP25 RJTD 260600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 115E WEST SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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#64 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:58 am

1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 250530). THE AREA
OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF NHA
TRANG, VIETNAM. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
AREA IS UNDER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LESS THAN FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EST-
IMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS EST-
IMATED AT 1005 MB. SEE REF A FOR FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO LACK
OF DEEP CONVECTION AND AN UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EN-
VIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO
POOR.//
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Coredesat

#65 Postby Coredesat » Thu Jan 26, 2006 2:29 pm

Image

Convection has refired near the center, but there isn't a whole lot, and it's about to make landfall.
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#66 Postby P.K. » Thu Jan 26, 2006 7:55 pm

WWJP25 RJTD 261800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 113E WEST SLOWLY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Coredesat

#67 Postby Coredesat » Thu Jan 26, 2006 8:03 pm

The convection is now sheared again. Just when it seemed to be bouncing back, it's hit a wall of 40 kt and increasing shear. That should pretty much do it for 98W.
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Coredesat

#68 Postby Coredesat » Fri Jan 27, 2006 2:06 am

(1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.3N
114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF NHA TRANG, VIETNAM HAS DIS-
SIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Looks like it's being absorbed by a front:

Image
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