la nina again?

[windycity]

is it true that la nina has never effected back to back seasons? We had it last year, the talk is, we will probably see it again this year,right. If that holds out,and the pacific continues to cool,the atlantic will will warm. Our temps here in Fl. have been very warm, and i pray we dont see another bad year.

[x-y-no]

is it true that la nina has never effected back to back seasons? We had it last year, the talk is, we will probably see it again this year,right. If that holds out,and the pacific continues to cool,the atlantic will will warm. Our temps here in Fl. have been very warm, and i pray we dont see another bad year.

Actually, last year was oficially neutral. So far, I think the forecast is for another neutral year, although I'm slightly inclined to expect a la Niña based on what we're seeing right now.

Almost dead sure we won't see an el Niño atany rate.

[wxmann_91]

This winter has been a La Nina winter. (La Nina usually features bitter cold in E. Asia, warmth and svr storms across the Southeast, wetter than average in the Northwest, and drier than average across the South and Southwest. That is exactly what we're seeing right now.) El Nino/La Nina winters usually affect the hurricane season prior more significantly, not after, so technically, the strong/numerous October hurricanes were in part due to La Nina that went full-fledged this month.

Since the anomalies across the EPAC are warming a little, and El Nino occurs twice as often as La Nina (meaning La Nina's aren't that often), I'd think that La Nina's that reappear each year are rare, and in fact, that has not happened in that last century.

The answer varies depending on the definition used. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Ninas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988 and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Ninas have been roughly half as frequent as El Ninos.

However, if this La Nina manages to last through 2006, then we could be in store for a bad season. Don't bet on it though.

[Jim Hughes]

This winter has been a La Nina winter. (La Nina usually features bitter cold in E. Asia, warmth and svr storms across the Southeast, wetter than average in the Northwest, and drier than average across the South and Southwest. That is exactly what we're seeing right now.) El Nino/La Nina winters usually affect the hurricane season prior more significantly, not after, so technically, the strong/numerous October hurricanes were in part due to La Nina that went full-fledged this month.

Since the anomalies across the EPAC are warming a little, and El Nino occurs twice as often as La Nina (meaning La Nina's aren't that often), I'd think that La Nina's that reappear each year are rare, and in fact, that has not happened in that last century.

The answer varies depending on the definition used. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Ninas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988 and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Ninas have been roughly half as frequent as El Ninos.

However, if this La Nina manages to last through 2006, then we could be in store for a bad season. Don't bet on it though.

I tend to agree with you about the end of last years hurricane season and this obvious cooling trend. It's sort of like the chicken and the egg. Who came first.

The meteorological community seems to think you must have the SST anomalies present to see the relationship but if anyone monitors everything you can see that relationship similarites seem to occur prior to the SST changeover. The winter of 1996-97 was a good example. Extreme warmth etc...before the El Nino was officially here.

I believe the best indicator might also be the subsurface. It started acting like a La Nina in the making in late August -September. I have seen similar occurrences in the past. So maybe we need to reconsider what causes or forces these weather/climate patterns.

I am not to sure where you are looking when you say a recent warming has occurred in the EPAC. The numbers are showing a cooling trend in three of the four El Nino regions over the past month or so. Now if you are only talking about the El Nino 1+2, which is the smallest in area, you are correct.

There has been a mild interruption to the subsurface cooling but this will change in the upcoming 1-3 weeks. A fairly strong cooling will be showing up but I can not tell you exactly where. But you will see it grow and it WILL show up.

I also am not to sure about the length of this ENSO cooling trend since I was thrown a curve ball again by the Wilcox Observatory. I use the term again because this same thing happened to me last winter around this time frame.

I look at others things that I can not talk about here but some older preliminary numerical data has been changed this past week and it is considerably different then it was about a week or two ago. This throws a red flag up in the ENSO department in my opinion.


Jim

[CHRISTY]

so what is your opinion on 2006?cause if feel where gonna have another bad year...iam waiting to see were the bermuda will set up, but after 05 we all say we dont need the bermuda high to have a destructive year.

[windycity]

thank you for all of the replies.I feel i learn something every day on this board. I too, wonder about the bermuda high set up that might set the stage for another Fl. year.

[windycity]

Jim, i totally respect everything you write concerning storms , so what does your gut feeling tell you about 06? I dont know,a big part of me thinks last year was a fluke but then i look at the data and wonder if we are screwed. Know what i mean ?

[wxmann_91]

This winter has been a La Nina winter. (La Nina usually features bitter cold in E. Asia, warmth and svr storms across the Southeast, wetter than average in the Northwest, and drier than average across the South and Southwest. That is exactly what we're seeing right now.) El Nino/La Nina winters usually affect the hurricane season prior more significantly, not after, so technically, the strong/numerous October hurricanes were in part due to La Nina that went full-fledged this month.

Since the anomalies across the EPAC are warming a little, and El Nino occurs twice as often as La Nina (meaning La Nina's aren't that often), I'd think that La Nina's that reappear each year are rare, and in fact, that has not happened in that last century.

The answer varies depending on the definition used. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Ninas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988 and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Ninas have been roughly half as frequent as El Ninos.

However, if this La Nina manages to last through 2006, then we could be in store for a bad season. Don't bet on it though.

I tend to agree with you about the end of last years hurricane season and this obvious cooling trend. It's sort of like the chicken and the egg. Who came first.

The meteorological community seems to think you must have the SST anomalies present to see the relationship but if anyone monitors everything you can see that relationship similarites seem to occur prior to the SST changeover. The winter of 1996-97 was a good example. Extreme warmth etc...before the El Nino was officially here.

I believe the best indicator might also be the subsurface. It started acting like a La Nina in the making in late August -September. I have seen similar occurrences in the past. So maybe we need to reconsider what causes or forces these weather/climate patterns.

I am not to sure where you are looking when you say a recent warming has occurred in the EPAC. The numbers are showing a cooling trend in three of the four El Nino regions over the past month or so. Now if you are only talking about the El Nino 1+2, which is the smallest in area, you are correct.

There has been a mild interruption to the subsurface cooling but this will change in the upcoming 1-3 weeks. A fairly strong cooling will be showing up but I can not tell you exactly where. But you will see it grow and it WILL show up.

I also am not to sure about the length of this ENSO cooling trend since I was thrown a curve ball again by the Wilcox Observatory. I use the term again because this same thing happened to me last winter around this time frame.

I look at others things that I can not talk about here but some older preliminary numerical data has been changed this past week and it is considerably different then it was about a week or two ago. This throws a red flag up in the ENSO department in my opinion.


Jim

Thanks for the reply. I recall seeing a map of Pacific SSTA's about a week ago but I guess they've cooled back down seeing the discussions on this board right now.

[Jim Hughes]

Jim, i totally respect everything you write concerning storms , so what does your gut feeling tell you about 06? I dont know,a big part of me thinks last year was a fluke but then i look at the data and wonder if we are screwed. Know what i mean ?

It's a long way out from now but I am really starting to wonder if we are entering somewhat of an uncharted area here. Or for that matter we already have.

Last years activity was considerably higher than what Gray and NOAA were forecasting. I am still concerned about these cooler stratosphere temperatures in the tropics and how this might be interacting with the strength of the AMO. Nothing seems to have changed yet from that angle so I am less inclined to focus on many other things right now.


Jim

[mike815]

yes we have and that is the scary part some big changes are occuring and we really dont know

[Javlin]

It seems to me that last year we all on this board started to get some real feeling about the season about April.Alot of the mets and researchers started dropping good info then.I learned alot then and look to it again this year.I say again just hope that no one gets plundered like we did last year.In saying that not going to worry about the upcoming season till then.Also if I remember right La Nina season produces 1.? less storms than neutral seasons.

[Jim Hughes]

Also if I remember right La Nina season produces 1.? less storms than neutral seasons.

I am less inclined to here all this talk about a La Nina being meaningless after so many research papers were written about it's enhancement relationship during the 90's.

You can only read or research so many things so maybe someone can answer this question for me. Especially somebody within the research field.

Have the increase storm totals, or the Gray's NTC rating system , since 1995, skewed the data so that any type of prior statistical correlation went out the door? Just like the QBO seems to have also.

I am guessing that the favorable AMO may have effected the data base. Just a thought.


Jim

[windycity]

question to anyone, since AMOs are favorable right now, and the QBO is in the westernly phase. couldnt that in itself account for Dr Greys high prediction number? What i dont really see is the increased rainfall that is usually seen during warm AMO phases (here in south Fl.) I do know however that the midwest is very dry.

[mike815]

very dry here high fire danger may take a hurr to get rain

[JonathanBelles]

very dry in parts of my lawn there is no grass just dirt

[Javlin]

Also if I remember right La Nina season produces 1.? less storms than neutral seasons.

I am less inclined to here all this talk about a La Nina being meaningless after so many research papers were written about it's enhancement relationship during the 90's.

You can only read or research so many things so maybe someone can answer this question for me. Especially somebody within the research field.

Have the increase storm totals, or the Gray's NTC rating system , since 1995, skewed the data so that any type of prior statistical correlation went out the door? Just like the QBO seems to have also.

I am guessing that the favorable AMO may have effected the data base. Just a thought.


Jim

Jim what I am saying it is meaningless by no means just pointing out I think Senorpor(?) pointed out less season in those times prior to the actual beginning.That by a statistical point that neutral situation produces 1.something less storms on average than a La Nina.El Nino would be welcome for sure by all instead of another barage like less year.But hey maybe a lot of fish this year we will not no really for a few of more months

[Jim Cantore]

if La Nina does last through 2006 I might be hit

Floyd occured in a la nina year and la nina has seemed to cause carolina storms which go on to effect my area

I just hope the Gulf gets a break

[bvigal]

Tend to agree with you there, H.Floyd. Also more risk for us here in N Caribbean. Hope it's not true, but there are some indicators that ring a bell with mid to late-90's... which brought Marilyn, Luis, Georges...

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2006

THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS FOR THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS A WEAK LA NINA. THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS
ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC HAS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE DATE
LINE... WITH MOST OF THIS AREA AT LEAST 0.5 DEG C BELOW NORMAL. SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 165E. SOME AREAS OF NEAR
NORMAL SST HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST... BUT AT DEPTH THERE
IS A LARGE VOLUME OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
... SO SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY. THE GRADIENT OF SSTS IN THE PACIFIC ALONG THE
EQUATOR... BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FAR WESTERN PACIFIC... IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF ANOMALOUS CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS ALREADY RESEMBLES A LA
NINA... WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OVER INDONESIA AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... BUT UNTIL RECENTLY THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN MORE LIKE THAT WHICH
USUALLY ACCOMPANIES EL NINO. HOWEVER... CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FOR
ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND A TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RECENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF THE U.S. AND IN INDONESIA IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA.

[Jim Cantore]

Tend to agree with you there, H.Floyd. Also more risk for us here in N Caribbean. Hope it's not true, but there are some indicators that ring a bell with mid to late-90's... which brought Marilyn, Luis, Georges...

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEBRUARY 2006

THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC INDICATORS FOR THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN ARE
CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARDS A WEAK LA NINA. THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS
ALONG THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC HAS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALL THE WAY TO THE DATE
LINE... WITH MOST OF THIS AREA AT LEAST 0.5 DEG C BELOW NORMAL. SIGNIFICANTLY
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA WEST OF 165E. SOME AREAS OF NEAR
NORMAL SST HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST... BUT AT DEPTH THERE
IS A LARGE VOLUME OF COLDER THAN NORMAL WATER IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
... SO SSTS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY. THE GRADIENT OF SSTS IN THE PACIFIC ALONG THE
EQUATOR... BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL AND ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE
FAR WESTERN PACIFIC... IS EXPECTED TO HELP MAINTAIN STRONGER THAN AVERAGE LOW
LEVEL EASTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF ANOMALOUS CONVECTION IN THE TROPICS ALREADY RESEMBLES A LA
NINA... WITH HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL OVER INDONESIA AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC... BUT UNTIL RECENTLY THE MIDDLE LATITUDE
CIRCULATION OVER THE PACIFIC AND NORTH AMERICA HAS BEEN MORE LIKE THAT WHICH
USUALLY ACCOMPANIES EL NINO. HOWEVER... CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS ARE FOR
ANOMALOUS RIDGING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC AT MIDDLE LATITUDES
AND A TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RECENTLY
OBSERVED IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF THE U.S. AND IN INDONESIA IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH LA NINA.

Yea you took Lenny also in 1999

La Nina also tends to give us a healthy Cape Verde season which can be worrysome for you

[Jim Hughes]

Jim what I am saying it is meaningless by no means just pointing out I think Senorpor(?) pointed out less season in those times prior to the actual beginning.That by a statistical point that neutral situation produces 1.something less storms on average than a La Nina.El Nino would be welcome for sure by all instead of another barage like less year.But hey maybe a lot of fish this year we will not no really for a few of more months

Sorry Javlin if you got offended because that was not my intention. I did not mean to imply that what you say is meaningless. Your post talked about last season etc...and what everyone else was thinking and talking about before the season. My comment was toward everyone's thinking about the La Nina as a whole and not one particular's person view.

I also stated my reasons for this and I think they are valid. It's obvious that nobody seems to have the answer. So I will still question this philosophy until I get an answer. Especially since it goes against everything that was written in science journals throughout the 90's

OTOH it also might be quite possible that La Nina's influence might be greatest when the AMO phase is negative. It has not been negative the past decade.


Jim