North Texas Winter Weather Outlook/Updates 2005-06

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1100 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS GENERALLY RANGING FROM 3500-5000 FT.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ABOVE A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR THAT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN THE STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY BRIEF AND
TEMPORARY BREAKS EXPECTED.  NONETHELESS...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY RISING THIS MORNING...AND THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE...WITH NO CHANGES TO THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO ADJUST HOURLY
DEWPOINT...CLOUD COVER...AND WIND GRIDS.  UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

65/DD

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS AROUND 050 HAVE MOVED INTO ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT THESE CIGS
TO REMAIN IN THE 040-050 RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TOO MINIMAL TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
408 AM CST MON DEC 19 2005
REINFORCING PUSH OF COLDER AIR IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
RISE MUCH DURING THE DAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION JUST
ABOVE THE COLD DOME AT THE SURFACE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME DRIZZLE OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY...BUT PASSAGE OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CULPRIT FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL HAVE THE
BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP. SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO QPF WILL LIKELY BE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET NUMBERS FOR
POPS WILL BE USED. LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN-MOST COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SURFACE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THIS AREA...SO
NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTED.

TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT
FROM NW TO SE. WE MAY HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME PATCHY FOG OR
LIGHT FREEZING FOG OVER THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY WED-THU AS SW BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD WARM ADVECTION. NEXT TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK
WITH AND WILL KEEP JUST A NARROW RIBBON OF 20 POPS FOR THE EXTREME
EASTERN CWA. OTHERWISE...DRY NW FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH TEMPS OVER
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND LOOKING LIKE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST MON DEC 19 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES SEEING LITTLE INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE THIS...
TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO WARM INTO THE 40S/50S ACROSS ALL BUT
THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE A SHALLOW WEDGE OF ARCTIC AIR
CONTINUE TO SEEP SOUTHWESTWARD.  WEAK WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE
SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS WILL ENSURE THAT THE STRATUS DECK REMAINS
INTACT OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAK
AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- CURRENTLY SEEN IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO -- AS IT EMERGES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME FOCUSED FROM WEST-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
RESULT AS THE COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED FROM INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT...PARTICULARLY ON THE 290/295 K SURFACES.  THIS WILL
INITIALLY OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS BEFORE
DAWN.  AS THE SHORTWAVE EJECTS EASTWARD DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AN
AREA OF GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO PRIMARILY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MEAGER MOISTURE AROUND THE 850
MB LEVEL...AND WEAK NATURE OF THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN
QPF OF AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AT BEST.

SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATION
OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...AS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT...RESULTING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
MAINTENANCE OF THIS VERY COLD AIRMASS.  NONETHELESS...POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A POTENTIAL
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA.  THUS...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A FORECAST OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION...WITH AN EMPHASIS
THAT LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST...
WITH A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PROGGED TO BRING WARM TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM WILL PASS
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES.  ANOTHER
PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...BUT LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL AGAIN PRECLUDE MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL.

[TexasStooge]

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
420 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT AROUND 09Z.  CIGS SHOULD HOVER AROUND 035-045...
ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.  RAIN WAS LEFT OUT OF
THE TAFS AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND WILL NOT IMPACT VSBYS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
405 AM CST TUE DEC 20 2005
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...WILL SWEEP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS TODAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MOST OF
THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 IN AN
AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONFINED TO A SHALLOW LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT 850 MB AND 700 MB SO
QPFS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF
AN INCH. SOME DYNAMIC COOLING AND SLIGHT MOISTENING OF THE LOW
LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MIXED
WITH LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE REMAINDER
OF NORTH TEXAS WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT QPFS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.

SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS BY THIS EVENING BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

UPPER PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP NORTH
TEXAS IN DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND
RETURNING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALSO BRING A WARMUP...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING BACK INTO THE 60S BY THURSDAY.

UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH
A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS. IF THIS PROG VERIFIES IT SHOULD KEEP NORTH TEXAS DRY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER.

[CaptinCrunch]

UPDATE...
1100 AM CST

CURRENT GRIDS ON TRACK. WITH STRONG WEST WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
MAKE THE 80S MOST AREAS. WITH NO SOIL MOISTURE INFORMATION IN THE
EQUATIONS...MODEL HIGH TEMPERATURES TOO LOW ONCE AGAIN. MONDAY HIGHS
CERTAINLY EVIDENT OF THIS BIAS THAT WILL BE WITH US THROUGHOUT THIS
DROUGHT. WILL ISSUE UPDATE AROUND MIDDAY TO FRESHEN UP TEMPORAL
WORDING. 25

DISCUSSION...
350 AM CST

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN OUR FORECAST. CONTINUED HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL WARRANT A CWA-WIDE RED
FLAG WARNING TODAY...ALONG WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS...ROUGHLY WEST OF A BONHAM...CORSICANA...TEMPLE LINE.
THE GUSTY...DRY AND WARM WEST WINDS WILL PROVIDE US ANOTHER ROUND
OF RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION...NOT TYPICAL FOR LATE DECEMBER.

FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT 2005 WILL BECOME THE FIFTH DRIEST YEAR ON
RECORD...MORE REMINISCENT OF THE 1950S...WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH/YEAR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT THE CHANCES ARE SLIM. SINCE IT IS
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE IT IN FOR NOW BUT MY
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

IN THE EXTENDED THERE IS NO CHANGE IN OUR PATTERN. PERIODIC
PASSAGES OF COLD FRONTS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN TO AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN. AND TO ADD TO THE MIX...WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS WITH NO ARCTIC INTRUSIONS SEEN ON THE HORIZON.
42

[CaptinCrunch]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1037 AM CST WED DEC 28 2005

...SUMMARY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING TUESDAY`S WILDFIRES AND A
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE...

THE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES THAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
RESULTED FROM A COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY WARM AND DRY AIR...STRONG
WEST WINDS...DORMANT VEGETATION...AND A CONTINUING DROUGHT.

THE WILDFIRES EXPERIENCED THIS FALL AND WINTER ARE LIKELY THE MOST
SEVERE SINCE THE WINTER OF 1995-96...WHEN SIMILAR CONDITIONS LED TO
250 FIRES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE LARGEST FIRES AFFECTED COLLIN...
DENTON AND PARKER COUNTIES IN FEBRUARY 1996 AND DESTROYED OVER 85
HOMES AND MANY OTHER STRUCTURES. FIFTY TWO INJURIES WERE REPORTED.

BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF CONDITIONS FROM TUESDAY`S WILDFIRES.

METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW:

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED EAST ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...AND A DRYLINE TRAILED SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE DRYLINE SEPARATED WARM AND SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR TO THE
EAST FROM VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...THE
DRYLINE MOVED EAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS ALLOWING THE VERY DRY
AIR AND STRONG WEST WINDS TO OVERSPREAD NORTH TEXAS.

THIS PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE AFFECTED
NORTH TEXAS THIS FALL AND WINTER. WITH THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK TO
THE NORTH...MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS HAS
REMAINED WELL NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LEAVING NORTH TEXAS
MORE PRONE TO THE PASSAGE OF DRY COLD FRONTS WITH RELATIVELY MILD
PACIFIC AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.


STATE OF ONGOING DROUGHT: PRECIPITATION FOR THE YEAR 2005
CONTINUES TO AVERAGE 10 TO 20 INCHES BELOW NORMAL...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 INCHES BELOW. ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IS
NOW IN A DROUGHT THAT RANGES FROM "SEVERE" TO "EXCEPTIONAL". THE
LATEST LONG-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
SUGGESTS THAT THE DROUGHT WILL PERSIST AND LIKELY INTENSIFY THROUGH
EARLY 2006.

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
TODAY WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL BE SLOW TODAY AND AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...WILL
CONTINUE THE RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY AND BRING
INCREASING NORTH WINDS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH STILL LOOKS REASONABLE FOR ALL ZONES WEDNESDAY.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN THE WEST THURSDAY AND ALLOW A
BETTER FETCH OF COOL AIR TO ENTER NORTH TEXAS. THE COOL AND DRY
AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY BUT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
WARM UP SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WEST.
THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM.

THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE DRY AND MILD.
HOWEVER...GFS CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME LOW PRECIP CHANCES BY MID
WEEK...BUT WILL NOT GET OUR HOPES UP JUST YET.

[CaptinCrunch]

Fire Weather Watch

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
449 AM CST THU JAN 5 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY DUE TO DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DUE TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL...DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS TODAY
AND CAUSE NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. THIS
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...DRY FUELS...AND STRONG
WINDS...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TODAY.

ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CAUSE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO DROP BELOW 20 PERCENT. THEREFORE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BONHAM
TO WAXAHACHIE TO WACO TO LAMPASAS LINE...BECAUSE THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN STRONG AND HUMIDITY WILL STAY BELOW 30 PERCENT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THIS AREA.


TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159-051800-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FW.A.0003.060107T1800Z-060108T1200Z/
/O.EXT.KFWD.FW.W.0005.060105T1800Z-060106T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-ELLIS-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
LAMPASAS-CORYELL-MCLENNAN-
449 AM CST THU JAN 5 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...

NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH...ALONG WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CREATE A HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

ALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PREVENT FIRES FROM STARTING.
OUTDOOR BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT AREAWIDE. AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD START A DEADLY FIRE...SUCH AS OUTDOOR WELDING OR
TOSSING LIT CIGARETTES. NEARLY ALL WILDFIRES ARE INTENTIONALLY OR
CARELESSLY SET.

IF A WILDFIRE ESCAPES AN INITIAL ATTACK...RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO EVACUATE IMMEDIATELY FOR A SAFE ZONE. MAYORS AND OR COUNTY
JUDGES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO DEMAND MANDATORY EVACUATIONS WITHIN
TEXAS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
413 AM CST THU JAN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AMPLIFYING AS RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST. AS A RESULT...A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS ACCELERATING SOUTH WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING MODERATE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISES AND INCREASES IN WIND
SPEEDS TO OUR NW. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND FULL INSOLATION
WILL CREATE UNSTABLE 0-2 KM LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL HELP TRANSFER
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL BE JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT THIS WILL BE THE WINDIEST DAY SINCE NEW YEARS WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR
25 PERCENT TODAY AND AS A RESULT...FIRE DANGER IS VERY HIGH ONCE
AGAIN WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET AND A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE FAVORED. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO
A FAST ZONAL PATTERN...CAUSING STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HUMIDITY WILL BECOME EXTREMELY LOW WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW BOOSTING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S. INDICATIONS ARE THAT 15-20 MPH WINDS
MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTH. WE HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WX WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
SAT AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUED IT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE
NW HALF. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND STALL OVER THE CWA ON
SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL RELAX OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

0Z GFS WAS TOO FAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAT CROSSES THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND UKMET/ECMWF/DGEX SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED. AS A RESULT
HAVE GONE WARMER THAN THE MEX MOS FOR TEMPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN EXPECTED. CONTINUING SW FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE
WILL ENSURE THAT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR ANY RAIN.
ONE SILVER LINING IN THE FORECAST IS THAT THE WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS FLORIDA WILL HELP BRING IN SOME SURFACE
MOISTURE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK AND HIGHER HUMIDITY MAY GIVE AREA
FIREFIGHTERS A BREAK DESPITE EPISODES OF STRONGER WINDS.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
433 AM CST FRI JAN 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TODAY AND NO RED FLAG WARNING NEEDED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON DESPITE CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COOLEST IN THE EAST TODAY WHERE COLDER 850 TEMPS RESIDE
AND WARMER IN THE WEST WHERE INTENSE SUBSIDENCE/WARMING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM ITS CURRENT HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED CONFIGURATION BACK INTO A ZONAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS. AS A RESULT...STRONG HEIGHT/PRESSURE FALLS WILL
OCCUR SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND STRONG SW WINDS WILL ORGANIZE
BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL AID IN DOWNSLOPE WARMING
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 10-15 PERCENT ACROSS THE
CWA. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UPGRADED TO
A RED FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY...AND IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS
TIME ONLY BECAUSE IT IS JUST BEYOND OUR 24 HOUR CRITERIA. UNLIKE
THE PREVIOUS EVENTS...THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
EXTENDS INTO SUNDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE PROLONGED NATURE OF
THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND NOCTURNAL TIMING OF THE
WORST WINDS...MAY PRESENT SOME NEW/TOUGH CHALLENGES FOR FIRE
FIGHTERS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY CHANGES CLOSELY.

WINDS SHOULD FINALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. 0Z GFS SOLUTION IS TOO
WEAK WITH THE FRONT AND FORECASTS FROM HPC/ECMWF/UKMET ARE
FAVORED. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FILTERING INTO THE AREA AND HAVE GONE BELOW MEX MOS
FOR LOWS TUE-WED. SOME GOOD NEWS...FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH AND
MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT COMES
BACK AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...HIGHER HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED WED-THU SO THAT FIRE WX CONCERNS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
ARE LOW DESPITE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT MOISTURE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
ANY RAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONT EXPECTED IN ON THU NIGHT.

[CaptinCrunch]

Look for Winter to return to NTX starting around the 17th of January, as the western ridge looks to be taken shape over the next 8 days. A strong buckel in the jet stream should start to pull down the colder air and bring a return of December like weather with highs' in the mid to upper 40's.

Local Wxguy say's look for below avg temps for a change and they could last thru the end of the month. The BIG question is will this pattern change bring about a wetter pattern for the southern part of the U.S??

[gboudx]

So I check the forecast for today and my area has a 50% chance of thunderstorms. Anyone know what those are?




/sarcasm off

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 AM CST TUE JAN 10 2006


.DISCUSSION...
IS THERE SOME LIGHT AT THE FAR END OF THE DRY TUNNEL?

I WILL NOT SAY THAT THE SEVERE DROUGHT IS ABOUT TO CRUMBLE IN A WASH
OF PRECIPITATION. NEVERTHELESS...THERE APPEARS TO BE SUBTLE...BUT
PROMISING FEATURES IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THAT A WESTERN TROUGH
WILL FORM...AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. FURTHERMORE..THE ENSEMBLE "MEAN" AND CLOSE GROUPING OF
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS A WESTERN
TROUGH...AT SLIGHTLY LOWER LATITUDES THAN THE RECENT STORM TRACK HAS
HAD. I THINK THAT WE WILL SEE AT LEAST SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 WEEKS. AND...THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE THAT SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR (IF NOT HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS).

NEXT WEEK`S GFS MODEL BRINGS SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL...MAINLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS (EAST OF I-35). HOWEVER...THE
EUROPEAN MODEL IS A BIT SLOWER...AND STRONGER...WITH THE UPPER LOW
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THAT SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS CONTINUE...AND WE HAVE KEPT THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH INTACT FOR WEDNESDAY. WE WERE TEMPTED TO ISSUE ONE FOR
THURSDAY...BUT A BETTER MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF INDICATES THAT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
WE HAVE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FOR A WATCH ON THURSDAY.

GFS MOS TEMPERATURES ARE STILL HAVING SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE WARM
DROUGHT...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS OVER THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE RAISED
TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE MOS DURING THE WINDY...WARM... AND DRIER
DAYS (MAINLY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND SATURDAY.)

LOW POPS (RAIN CHANCES) WILL EXIT THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN FRIDAY AND NEXT MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

SHORT TERM SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/NGM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY THURSDAY...AS
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
THIS...AND ALLOW A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING ON
THURSDAY MORNING. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AS WELL AS RAPID
MOISTURE ADVECTION...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A MENTION OF
THUNDER WAS INCLUDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH (7-8 C/KM) TO WARRANT AT LEAST A MENTION OF
CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA MAY ALLOW FIRE FIGHTERS TO TAKE A
MUCH NEEDED REST IN THIS AREA ON THURSDAY.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING A DRY
AIRMASS TO SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE HIGH WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ONCE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY...AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN ADVANCE OF
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING BETWEEN THE
GFSLR/ECMWF WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER POPS AT THIS TIME. DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWING MONDAY`S FRONTAL PASSAGE.

[CaptinCrunch]

AFD
NWS FT WORTH TX.
JAN 17 2006


DEEP L/W UPPER TROUGH NOW SWINGING THROUGH WITH SYSTEM PUSHING
PROGRESSIVELY EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ATTM. TIGHT...NLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN SFC LOW OVER MS VALLEY AND SFC HI OVER THE
SRN ROCKIES...ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING OF 35-45 KT FLOW IN LOWER 3-5
KFT TO RESULT IN A BLUSTERY/COOL DAY TODAY. THUS WIND ADVISORY
MAINTAINED TODAY. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN DIMINISHING BY MID-LATE AFTN
...AS GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
OUR A COLD NIGHT AS FLOW WEAKENS AND BACKS TO THE W/SW THRU WED
MORNING...THEN INCREASES FROM SSW 15-25 KTS BY WED AFTN WITH A
RELATIVE WARM UP EXPECTED.

N TX WILL CONTINUE SEEING GUSTY S/SW FLOW THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH
TEMPS WARMING UP AS LOW LVL MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS AT LEAST SE
1/2 OF N TX. MORE WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY TO COME AND RED FLAG
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. NEXT SYSTEM ON
TAP FOR N TX WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD N TX
THROUGH FRI MORNING. THIS LOOKS TO BE A QUICK HITTER WITH ONLY LOW
POPS/LIGHT AMOUNTS NAMELY EAST OF I-35 ONCE AGAIN WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE ANCHORED. DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL THIS
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS. ADDED SOME LOW POPS NEXT MON-TUES
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND TOWARD N TX...AS
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF OCCURS. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
LIKE IT MAY BE STRONGER AND SLOWER...THUS POSSIBLY GIVING N TX
IT`S NEXT REAL SHOT OF RAIN...BUT RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE THIS FAR
OUT IS TOO LOW AND WILL STAY ON CONSERVATIVE WITH IT BEING A WEEK
AWAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
235 PM CST TUE JAN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA CONTINUES TO UNFOLD
AS WESTERLIES HAVE DROP SOUTHWARD WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER
LOWS/TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK. FIRST TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH TODAY...SECOND ONE (AGAIN DRY) ON FRIDAY AND A THIRD ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS PROMISE FOR MUCH NEED RAINFALL FOR NORTH
TEXAS AS IT MIGHT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDERS OF AZ/NM OR
THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO.

WIND AND DRY AIR REMAIN THE PROBLEM FOR THIS WEEK AS STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENTS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING REMAINS VERY ACTIVE. NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
BEGINS WEDNESDAY WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE RETURN. DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND WINDS...WE WILL KEEP THE RED
FLAG WARNING GOING FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHER RH AND DP THURSDAY MAY
LIMIT RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. FRIDAY HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS AS THE DRYLINE PUNCHES THROUGH
THE CWA AND DRY SLOT ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FRIDAY EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY LOOK DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MID JANUARY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

NEXT TUESDAY HAS PROMISE AS FAR A PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED AS A
LOW LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND
TOWARDS TEXAS WITH FAVORABLE NEGATIVE TILT PATTERN. IF THIS PANS
OUT...THEN THERE SHOULD BE ADEQUATE TIME FOR GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN
OVER THE STATE AND BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AREAWIDE.

[CaptinCrunch]

A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
THROUGH CLINTON OKLAHOMA...TO SOUTH OF WINK AT 10Z...WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY MIDDAY...AND THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING. MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER...AND
TIMING OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT WILL BE BEST. MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO
BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH THE ETA SOLUTION IS NOT AS
FAVORABLE FOR RAIN AS IS THE GFS. AFTER SUNDAY NIGHT....THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE MIDWEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL SLIDE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MONDAY INTO TEXAS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
408 AM.
AFTER SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN YESTERDAY...DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED.
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK...AND AFTER A COLD MORNING
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO CUT OFF TODAY AND
THEN START TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM IS NOT VERY
HIGH...AS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE COMPUTER MODELS SEEM TO
CHANGE WITH NEARLY EVERY RUN. HAVE ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE RAIN
FOR THE 00Z GFS RUN. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
346 AM CST WED JAN 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SETUP FAVORS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. IR SAT PICS SHOWING TUTT CHARACTERISTICS EXTENDING OUT TO
HAWAII WITH A LARGE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BETWEEN 130 & 160W.
WOULD EXPECTED SOME OF THIS MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO
FEED INTO THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING
IN BENEFICIAL FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS AND KEEPING THE FIRE DANGER
IN CHECK FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.

UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
THURSDAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER MEXICO...THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRAW IT NORTHWARD AND PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE FOR THE NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM (PROGRESSIVE LONG WAVE) ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND. A
SOUTHERN BRANCH SPEED MAX OF 100+ KNOTS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AIDING DIV-Q FORCING AND SYNOPTIC LIFT
ABOVE 850 LLJ AND MOISTURE FETCH. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 1/2 CWA...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE CWA WILL SEE RAINFALL.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST SOUTHEAST OF A LAMPASAS
TO EMORY LINE WHERE CONVECTIVE ECHO TRAINING WILL BE ENHANCED.

A DRYLINE/DRY SLOT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND WRAPS UP OVER OKLAHOMA AND MOVES
EAST. THIS WILL BRING A WEST TO EAST END TO THE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE SEASONAL AND DRY. HAVE ADDED LOW
CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH
MOVES OUT OF THE WEST...HOWEVER THIS ONE IS MORE POSITIVELY TILTED
WITH ITS MAIN ENERGY PASSING FURTHER NORTH OF THE REGION.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
301 PM CST WED JAN 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN REALLY IS COMING. THIS MORNING WHEN I CAME
TO WORK THE 06Z GFS WAS QUITE WET OVER FRIDAY/SATURDAY...BUT THE
06Z ETA WAS VERY DRY. THE 12Z ETA RUN WAS MUCH WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS (ALTHOUGH NOT AS WET AS THE GFS)...BUT THE TENDENCY TO
TREND TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION BODES WELL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
MUCH NEEDED RAIN. THE MODELS AS WELL AS HPC SEEM TO THINK OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WILL GET A VERY GOOD SOAKING WITH HPC 6 HOUR
QPF/S NEAR CANTON OVER AN INCH FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IF I WAS
TO PICK A QPF FOR THE METROPLEX...I WOULD GUESS A HALF INCH TO A
BIT OVER AN INCH STORM TOTAL FOR MOST AREAS.

MID LEVEL INSTABILITIES ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME THUNDER
MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN. SHEAR PROFILES ARE MODERATE...BUT WITH NO
REAL HEATING IN THE LOWER LEVELS THE SEVERE THREAT SEEMS LOW RIGHT
NOW. IF THE DYNAMICS START LOOKING STRONGER...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL HAVE TO BE RE-EVALUATED. THE AIR DRIES OUT BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. I DID TAKE OUT THE LINGERING PRECIP THAT WENT INTO
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS TOO FAR NORTH TO EXPECT ANY PRECIP
WRAPPING AROUND IT BEHIND THE FRONT PLUS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY
DRY BY THEN.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE ONLY OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ANY RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN REASONABLE AND SEASONABLE (IS THAT A
WORD?) WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S TO 70S ALL WEEK EXCEPT FOR
FRIDAY WHEN THE RAIN WILL KEEP US IN THE 50S. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY MILD...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE
CLOUDS/RAIN/WARM ADVECTION ALLOW NO OVERNIGHT COOLING AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS AFD FT WORTH TX
JAN 31 2005

.DISCUSSION...
242 AM
HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AS
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND HUMIDITIES REMAIN CRITICALLY LOW...SO WE
HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
TWO RAIN CHANCES...WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...WHERE THE MODELS HAVE
OSCILLATED ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. NOW THE ETA...GFS AND ECM AGREE ON
THE FIRST EVENT...AND SEEM TO BE GETTING CLOSER ON FRIDAY`S
EVENT...SO WE WILL TREND TOWARD THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS TAKE WEDNESDAY`S LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH
WOULD LIMIT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP. THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA MAY HAVE A MORE DIFFICULT TIME SEEING PRECIP FRIDAY AS
MOST OF THE ENERGY REMAINS TO THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH THE COLD
FRONT FRIDAY SHOULD TAKE US TO MORE SEASONAL READINGS FOR A SHORT
TIME. OVERALL...QUITE PLEASANT FOR WINTER...EVEN IN NORTH TEXAS.