Tropical Depression "AGATON"
Tropical Cyclone Archive | Tropical Cyclone Warning for Shipping
PAGASA Track as of 8 a.m., 23 January 2006
Satellite Picture at 11:00 a.m., 23 January 2006
Severe Weather Bulletin Number NINE
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Tropical Depression "AGATON"
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Monday, 23 January 2006 Tropical Depression "AGATON" has maintained its strength as it continues to move closer to Samar provinces.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 190 kms east of Borongan, Eastern Samar
Coordinates: 11.7°N, 127.2°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: west northwest at 9 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday morning:
off the eastern coast of Northern Samar or
100 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar
Wednesday morning:
100 kms west of Catarman, Northern Samar
Thursday morning:
60 kms east northeast of San Jose Occidental Mindoro
Areas Having Public Storm Warning Signal
PSWS # Luzon Visayas Mindanao
Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds) None Eastern Samar
Northern Samar
Western Samar None
Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.
Residents in areas under Public Storm Warning Signal 1 are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.
The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate action and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5:00 p.m. today.
WPAC: PAGASA - Invest 98W - JTWC: TCFA CANCELLED
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 230000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
AT 46N 159E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 45N 167E 43N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 171E TO 40N 176E 35N 178E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 171E TO 35N 170E 29N 162E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 700
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 50N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 37N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA
OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 130E 25N 132E 19N 128E 19N 121E 15N 111E 22N
112E 24N 117E 30N 122E 30N 130E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 11.3N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 50N 172W ESE 20 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
AT 46N 159E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 46N 159E TO 45N 167E 43N 171E.
WARM FRONT FROM 43N 171E TO 40N 176E 35N 178E.
COLD FRONT FROM 43N 171E TO 35N 170E 29N 162E.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 700
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240000UTC AT 50N 157E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 37N 150E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND
200 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA
OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 30N 130E 25N 132E 19N 128E 19N 121E 15N 111E 22N
112E 24N 117E 30N 122E 30N 130E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 11.3N 127.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 50N 172W ESE 20 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
128.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
128.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 127.6E, APPROXIMATELY 435 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS FAIR.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF 2006 THREATENS THE PHILIPPINES - AND THIS IS JANUARY AND WINTER IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE!!!
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday that tropical depression "Agaton" continues to threaten Eastern Visayas.
Agaton, the first tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year, was estimated at 360 kilometers (kms) east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte yesterday afternoon.
The weather bureau said Agaton has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and is moving west-northwest at seven kph.
PAGASA said that due to the weather disturbance, the Bicol region, Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
PAGASA, however, warned residents of the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao against heavy rains, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides in the said areas.
Aside from "Agaton," the weather bureau said that a weather system called the diffused tail-end of a cold front will be affecting northeastern Luzon, bringing mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers in the said area.
The rest of the country, PAGASA said, will have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.
Based on PAGASA’s severe weather bulletin no. 6, which was issued at 5 pm yesterday, "Agaton" is expected to be at 190 kms. East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar by this afternoon.
By tomorrow afternoon, it is expected to be at 90 kms. North of Guiuan while by Wednesday morning, the tropical depression is expected to be at 80 kms. North-northwest of Catbalogan, Eastern Samar.
Public storm warning signal (PSWS) number 1 has been raised over eastern and western Samar including Homonhon island and over Surigao del Norte, including Siargao and Dinagat islands.
Tropical depression "Agaton" was initially seen as a low pressure area (LPA) on the east of southern Mindanao last Friday afternoon and was upgraded into a tropical depression last Saturday morning.
Earlier, PAGASA Climatology and Agrometeorology chief Dr. Flaviana Hilario said that rainfall conditions in most parts of the country are expected to be "above normal" this year, adding that rainfall-causing weather systems such as the northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and the easterlies will likely affect the country from January to March this year.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said yesterday that tropical depression "Agaton" continues to threaten Eastern Visayas.
Agaton, the first tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year, was estimated at 360 kilometers (kms) east-northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte yesterday afternoon.
The weather bureau said Agaton has maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour (kph) near the center and is moving west-northwest at seven kph.
PAGASA said that due to the weather disturbance, the Bicol region, Visayas, and northeastern Mindanao will have cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms.
PAGASA, however, warned residents of the eastern sections of Visayas and Mindanao against heavy rains, which may trigger flashfloods and landslides in the said areas.
Aside from "Agaton," the weather bureau said that a weather system called the diffused tail-end of a cold front will be affecting northeastern Luzon, bringing mostly cloudy skies with scattered rainshowers in the said area.
The rest of the country, PAGASA said, will have partly cloudy to at times cloudy skies with rainshowers and isolated thunderstorms.
Based on PAGASA’s severe weather bulletin no. 6, which was issued at 5 pm yesterday, "Agaton" is expected to be at 190 kms. East of Guiuan, Eastern Samar by this afternoon.
By tomorrow afternoon, it is expected to be at 90 kms. North of Guiuan while by Wednesday morning, the tropical depression is expected to be at 80 kms. North-northwest of Catbalogan, Eastern Samar.
Public storm warning signal (PSWS) number 1 has been raised over eastern and western Samar including Homonhon island and over Surigao del Norte, including Siargao and Dinagat islands.
Tropical depression "Agaton" was initially seen as a low pressure area (LPA) on the east of southern Mindanao last Friday afternoon and was upgraded into a tropical depression last Saturday morning.
Earlier, PAGASA Climatology and Agrometeorology chief Dr. Flaviana Hilario said that rainfall conditions in most parts of the country are expected to be "above normal" this year, adding that rainfall-causing weather systems such as the northeast monsoon, tail-end of a cold front, and the easterlies will likely affect the country from January to March this year.
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Jim Hughes
- Category 3
- Posts: 825
- Joined: Sun Jul 24, 2005 1:52 pm
- Location: Martinsburg West Virginia
This does not surprise me at all. Favorable conditions are present from my perspective. Think about it. Epsilon and Zeta's repeatable time frame pattern and now this. Everything is almost identical as Epsilon and Zeta's time frame.
The only difference is the extremely nonfavorable MJO for the Atlantic. The only conducive area, during a phase 5 , is the Western Carribean , and it is showing a minor flare up in activity.
The MJO is favorable in the WPAC and and now we see this development when other things are favorable also. Even in January.
Jim
The only difference is the extremely nonfavorable MJO for the Atlantic. The only conducive area, during a phase 5 , is the Western Carribean , and it is showing a minor flare up in activity.
The MJO is favorable in the WPAC and and now we see this development when other things are favorable also. Even in January.
Jim
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 231200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 952 HPA
AT 49N 158E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1400 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 50N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 39N 161E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
29N 122E 25N 136E 18N 136E 18N 122E 12N 110E 20N 110E 24N 118E 29N
122E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.5N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231200.
WARNING VALID 241200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 952 HPA
AT 49N 158E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTH 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 1400 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241200UTC AT 50N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 984 HPA AT 39N 161E
MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
29N 122E 25N 136E 18N 136E 18N 122E 12N 110E 20N 110E 24N 118E 29N
122E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 11.5N 126.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 231800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 956 HPA
AT 48N 156E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 46N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 49N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 976 HPA AT 44N 165E
MOVING NORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 23N 135E 17N 130E 17N 120E 10N 110E 20N 110E 24N 118E 27N
120E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 11.8N 126.5E EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1036 HPA AT 34N 120E SE 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 231800.
WARNING VALID 241800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 956 HPA
AT 48N 156E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1400 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 240600UTC AT 46N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 49N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 976 HPA AT 44N 165E
MOVING NORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 23N 135E 17N 130E 17N 120E 10N 110E 20N 110E 24N 118E 27N
120E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 11.8N 126.5E EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
SUMMARY.
HIGH 1036 HPA AT 34N 120E SE 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 240600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
AT 50N 163E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 50N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 50N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 966 HPA AT 46N 158E
MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
26N 120E 25N 131E 18N 130E 19N 121E 10N 110E 18N 110E 23N 116E 26N
120E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 31N 169E 40N 180E
29N 180E 29N 169E 31N 169E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 123E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 34N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 44N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 240600.
WARNING VALID 250600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 960 HPA
AT 50N 163E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 241800UTC AT 50N 161E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 50N 165E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 966 HPA AT 46N 158E
MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
26N 120E 25N 131E 18N 130E 19N 121E 10N 110E 18N 110E 23N 116E 26N
120E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 31N 169E 40N 180E
29N 180E 29N 169E 31N 169E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 123E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 34N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1034 HPA AT 44N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 241200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 50N 160E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 49N 162E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 50N 166E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 27N 123E 18N 127E 19N 121E 10N 110E 18N 110E 23N 117E 27N
120E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 31N 172E 36N 180E
30N 180E 27N 172E 31N 172E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 121E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241200.
WARNING VALID 251200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 50N 160E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 1000 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250000UTC AT 49N 162E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 50N 166E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
27N 120E 27N 123E 18N 127E 19N 121E 10N 110E 18N 110E 23N 117E 27N
120E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 31N 172E 36N 180E
30N 180E 27N 172E 31N 172E.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 12N 121E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 35N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Coredesat
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 127.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A BREAKDOWN IN DEEP CONVECTION, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO BE SEPARATED FROM
THE CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY NEAR 240000Z ALSO DEPICTS CONVEC-
TION POLEWARD OF THE LLCC POSITION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT ALONG THE
WESTERN REGIONS OF THE PHILIPPINES. ADDITIONALLY, 850 MB VORTICITY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND IS BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 240000Z SUGGEST ONLY ENHANCED NORTH-
EASTERLIES WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO WEAK-
ENING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
REVEALS A BREAKDOWN IN DEEP CONVECTION, AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) TO BE SEPARATED FROM
THE CONVECTION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY NEAR 240000Z ALSO DEPICTS CONVEC-
TION POLEWARD OF THE LLCC POSITION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
HOWEVER MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PRESENT ALONG THE
WESTERN REGIONS OF THE PHILIPPINES. ADDITIONALLY, 850 MB VORTICITY
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND IS BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT 240000Z SUGGEST ONLY ENHANCED NORTH-
EASTERLIES WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY FLOW EQUATORWARD OF THE LLCC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINI-
MUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO WEAK-
ENING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE DECOUPLING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO POOR.
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-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 49N 160E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 51N 163E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 51N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 120E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 25N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 960 HPA
AT 49N 160E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING SOUTH 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 51N 163E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 51N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 120E WNW 10 KT.
HIGH 1032 HPA AT 43N 127E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 25N 174E ALMOST STATIONARY.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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Coredesat
98W's not dead yet! Reupgraded to fair:
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
123.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RENEWED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
NEAR AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT
IN A 242156Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.7N
123.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 118.0E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS RENEWED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
NEAR AN ORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT
IN A 242156Z AMSU-B SATELLITE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.
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Coredesat
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued!
WTPN21 PGTW 250530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/250521ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 118.7E TO 11.4N 111.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LLCC TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. ADDITION-
ALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUSTAINMENT IN A WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT
250028Z DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW RESULTING IN DEEPER CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EASTER-
LIES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, TRENDS OF 850 MB
VORITICITY HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE SINCE THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM
THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND DVORAKS FROM ALL FIXING
AGENCIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260530Z.//
WTPN21 PGTW 250530
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/250521ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.1N 118.7E TO 11.4N 111.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 242330Z INDI-
CATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N
118.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 117.7E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM SOUTH-
WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LLCC TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION. ADDITION-
ALLY, WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUSTAINMENT IN A WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND INCREASE IN RADIAL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT
250028Z DEPICTS CONVERGENT FLOW RESULTING IN DEEPER CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG EASTER-
LIES ALOFT AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE. ADDITIONALLY, TRENDS OF 850 MB
VORITICITY HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE SINCE THE LLCC HAS MOVED AWAY FROM
THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND DVORAKS FROM ALL FIXING
AGENCIES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260530Z.//
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 250600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 968 HPA
AT 50N 165E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 986 HPA AT 53N 176W
MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 116E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 28N 137E EAST 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 968 HPA
AT 50N 165E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1300 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER LOW 986 HPA AT 53N 176W
MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 12N 116E WEST 15 KT.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 28N 137E EAST 15 KT.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
JMA and JTWC links regarding this TD (USN-Invest 98W) can be found at the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update:
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm
http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm
0 likes
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P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
WWJP25 RJTD 251800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 40N 179E NE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 115E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1038 HPA AT 41N 105E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 165E TO 26N 172E 31N 180E 36N 174W 38N
166W.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
WARNING AND SUMMARY 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 40N 179E NE 15 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 13N 115E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1038 HPA AT 41N 105E ALMOST STATIONARY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N 165E TO 26N 172E 31N 180E 36N 174W 38N
166W.
JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
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