Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[dashwildwood]

lets hope it hits the SE on feb 4 i will be 23 and i have never seen it snow on my birthday well that i can remember so that would be atleast 15-17 years matter of fact there has never been snow on the ground on my birthday

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Any takes from our Pro Mets about the data today?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It sure feels like winter in Houston today. Overcast...breezy...and temps. in the lower to middle 50s.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I feel that between now and Feb. 5th, that all the fronts we see will only be capable of bringing our temps. to normal or slightly below normal. I also expect a decent rain chance along each front. After Feb. 5th, though, I expect a big change. Between February 5th and 15th, I expect at least one arctic front to make it to Texas. With the front(s) I would expect at least one winter weather event in north texas and at least one "threat" of winter weather in central and SE Texas. I also would expect at least one hard freeze in Houston, as well as a high below 45. Now these are very early predictions, but this is my best judgement of what's coming. The worst case cold scenario in this building pattern would be an extreme cold snap with highs in Houston below 30 and snow/ice...but I am not predicting that...YET; but hey there is a chance for anything...but for now I think it gets cold (at least), just how cold is yet to be seen.

**Also, any input from pro mets would be great! Havn't heard from them in awhile.**

[txwatcher91]

Any takes from our Pro Mets about the data today?

Yeah, what happend to AFM and Jeff?

[Tyler]

Any takes from our Pro Mets about the data today?

Yeah, what happend to AFM and Jeff?

I think they have mentioned they are a bit busy at the moment. Don't worry, I'm sure we'll hear from them soon.

[Tyler]

I feel that between now and Feb. 5th, that all the fronts we see will only be capable of bringing our temps. to normal or slightly below normal. I also expect a decent rain chance along each front. After Feb. 5th, though, I expect a big change. Between February 5th and 15th, I expect at least one arctic front to make it to Texas. With the front(s) I would expect at least one winter weather event in north texas and at least one "threat" of winter weather in central and SE Texas. I also would expect at least one hard freeze in Houston, as well as a high below 45. Now these are very early predictions, but this is my best judgement of what's coming. The worst case cold scenario in this building pattern would be an extreme cold snap with highs in Houston below 30 and snow/ice...but I am not predicting that...YET; but hey there is a chance for anything...but for now I think it gets cold (at least), just how cold is yet to be seen.

**Also, any input from pro mets would be great! Havn't heard from them in awhile.**

I hope your right, more days like today would be great! A dreary, cool, and cloudy January day, just how I like them down here in Houston!

[PTrackerLA]

I just don't see any real cold for us materializing through the rest of the winter. Even the local met has referred it to "the winter without a winter" as he sees only normal to above normal temperatures through the spring. Can't remember the last winter without a hard freeze around here, our plants are going to be huge this summer!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just don't see any real cold for us materializing through the rest of the winter. Even the local met has referred it to "the winter without a winter" as he sees only normal to above normal temperatures through the spring. Can't remember the last winter without a hard freeze around here, our plants are going to be huge this summer!

I have a hard time believing that winter is almost over. With a nosediving NAO and AO, and cold air pooling in NW Canada and Alaska, as well as increasing snowcover across the plains (blizzard warnings in the northern plains tonight) I feel that we are being set up for an arctic outbreak sometime between Feb. 1st and Feb. 15th.

[Tyler]

I just don't see any real cold for us materializing through the rest of the winter. Even the local met has referred it to "the winter without a winter" as he sees only normal to above normal temperatures through the spring. Can't remember the last winter without a hard freeze around here, our plants are going to be huge this summer!

I can't believe everyone has forgotten December. I guess the extreme warmth has kinda outweighed the extreme cold. And any way, we aren't going to have an above normal spring. Long range forecasters are screaming a very cool March, and below average Spring, we are in a weak La Nina.

[PTrackerLA]

Yeah December might have been cold up until Christmas relative to normal but the lowest we officially hit was 30, not exactly extreme cold what so ever for around here. With no hard freezes I'll consider it a non-winter...so far.

[jeff]

Ouch...

Ensembles show a highly amplified ridge in the west (almost an omega block type pattern) with strong N to S flow across N Canada straight down the Rockies. This would support bitter cold flowing southward into the US sometime during the first week of Feb. To me this looks colder than the forecast last week, but I have only looked at the ensembles and the old GFS maintains a warm pattern through the period.

May be AFM can add a more indepth discussion as time is short on my end.

[Portastorm]

Ouch...

Ensembles show a highly amplified ridge in the west (almost an omega block type pattern) with strong N to S flow across N Canada straight down the Rockies. This would support bitter cold flowing southward into the US sometime during the first week of Feb. To me this looks colder than the forecast last week, but I have only looked at the ensembles and the old GFS maintains a warm pattern through the period.

May be AFM can add a more indepth discussion as time is short on my end.

Jeff ... good to see you check in! I saw the same thing this morning as I looked over the NCEP ensemble run. Looked like the coldest set of ensembles yet.

I guess a blast of winter the first 2 weeks of February is not out of the question. I remember several times back in the 80s when the Austin area experienced wintry weather during the same time period. Heck, for that matter, several years ago on Feb. 26-27 we had a major sleet/ice storm for 2 days that shut down the city!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I have to admit I'm confused with what value the ensembles have in medium and long range forecasting. I keep on seeing folks on here note that the ensembles show a change in the long range, but then the GFS or whatever shows just the opposite. Don't the models, like the GFS and EWCMF, use the ensembles to come up with ideas on the long range?

[jasons2k]

I have to admit I'm confused with what value the ensembles have in medium and long range forecasting. I keep on seeing folks on here note that the ensembles show a change in the long range, but then the GFS or whatever shows just the opposite. Don't the models, like the GFS and EWCMF, use the ensembles to come up with ideas on the long range?

Take anything beyond 5, especially 7 days with a 'grain of salt'. They flip back and forth all the time. They *can* help you see a pattern change down the road but as we have seen already this winter they will often get you all excited over nothing.

[millerblizzard1]

The ensembles also help you see where the different models agree or disagree on . If they agree in the ensembles it gives the pattern change more validity.

[jasons2k]

yeah and no body can forget about the amazing Februarys of the 1800s. Feb. 1895 was the host of the 20-30" Houston snowfall, and Feb. 1899 was when it got cold enough to freeze over galveston bay.

If I recall what I have read about this event correctly, Galveston Bay itself never froze over. A small portion of West Bay, in a section between the island and the mainland, partially froze over.

It would take quite a feat, much beyond even what happened in 1899, to actually freeze over Galveston Bay.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have to admit I'm confused with what value the ensembles have in medium and long range forecasting. I keep on seeing folks on here note that the ensembles show a change in the long range, but then the GFS or whatever shows just the opposite. Don't the models, like the GFS and EWCMF, use the ensembles to come up with ideas on the long range?

Take anything beyond 5, especially 7 days with a 'grain of salt'. They flip back and forth all the time. They *can* help you see a pattern change down the road but as we have seen already this winter they will often get you all excited over nothing.

the ensembles have been showing this cooler trend for quite awhile though. In fact, it has been showing cold around the first week of Feb. for probably a week now. When we start seeing this kind of consistency, then it begins to look more and more likely that it will happen. Keep in mind that Feb. 1st is now only 8 days out. Also, the NAO and AO are sinking into the negative values (good sign of an arctic outbreak down the plains), and Canada and Alaska continue to cool. all of these things are great signs of a major arctic outbreak in 7-14 days.

[amawea]

Whether the gfs sees it or not I see it. The cold air in Alaska and western Canada is something that hasn't been there this winter. I think its coming down based on the ensembles.