Wave in western Caribbean

[Coredesat]

Sure, it's going to be absorbed, but for now, it looks better than ever. I can even make out a circulation.

[skysummit]

I'm afraid to even look at this on satellite loop. I don't think I will.

[Jim Hughes]

I'm afraid to even look at this on satellite loop. I don't think I will.

Good luck trying. The loops on GOES -East are currently having a glitch. They stopped a couple of hours ago. You can still get the latest single image though.



Jim

[TheEuropean]

Here is an update:



It's starting to go inland on Yucatan, while the coldfront is comming in from northwest.

TWD:
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
NEAR 18N83W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE ACROSS CUBA AND W
ATLC INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK BUT WELL DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 22N86W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W
AND IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF
83W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 82W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.

[drezee]

The trough is looking great in the visibles this morning...look for yourself...some swirly going on down there!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[mike815]

GEEZ holy cow

[Weatherfreak14]

. Looks like to close to land now for anything though. But sure does look impressive.

[mike815]

right it is but wow its jan.

[KatDaddy]

From the Jeff Master's Weather Underground Blog:

This strangest of winters has produced yet another oddity--a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that looks very much like something one would see at the height of hurricane season. Strong westerly winds aloft--typical for this time of year--have kept the Caribbean free of tropical disturbances ever since Tropical Storm Gamma dissipated in November. However, beginning yesterday, a split in the upper level wind flow coming across Central America created an area of low shear of 5-10 knots over the western Caribbean. This morning, an intense area of deep convection developed in this low-shear area, off the coast of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. This disturbance does have some upper-level cirrus clouds indicating outflow to the north, but not enough organization to be worried about looking for a surface circulation. Water temperatures are 26-27 C in the western Caribbean, which is warm enough to support a tropical storm. Wind shear is expected to remain low enough through Tuesday night to allow some slow development as the system moves west or west-northwest at about 15 mph. By Wednesday, wind shear is forecast to sustantially increase, and the disturbance's motion should bring it over Belize and Mexico's Yucatan. These factors make it unlikely we'll see a tropical depression. Still, it is quite remarkable that we are even talking about a system of this nature in January!

[mike815]

very good anyalisis by jeff the front and its closeness to yucatan will kill it but this is huge because of the pattern that actually would have alowed a TD to form

[HURAKAN]

Like many people have already said, "not bad for January."

[HURAKAN]

ONCE AGAIN, "NOT BAD FOR JANUARY!"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow its inland now but there appears to be a LLC...This is pretty cool...In if it would of stayed over water for another 12 hours. We might be talking about a tropcal storm.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its time to watch if it can move northwestward into the BOC. If so we could be watching something like JOSE.

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 87W/88W FROM 16N-22N. BROKEN/OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

1 PM EST discussion.They only mention the disturbance as a surface trough.If I was writting the discussion I would say it is a tropical wave.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

In whats that low level twist that formed as it moved inland? In is still spinning inland.

[JonathanBelles]

In whats that low level twist that formed as it moved inland? In is still spinning inland.

english?

[skysummit]

Just freakin unreal. My God what will this hurricane season be like.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems to me like they should start making hurricane season year round like they do in Asia. I mean this feature in the western caribbean is more like something we would see in early or mid June, NOT January.

[mike815]

that is incredible it looks good but over land geez