Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[Portastorm]

That 1895 storm, I just can't picture that in my mind. I have trouble picturing 20 inches of snowfall in Houston. If that happened, I might explode, I don't know. Just unbelievable. I wonder how ingredients came together so well to produce not just 1 foot, but almost 2 feet of snow!!! Boggles the mind.

Nor can I believe it reached 8 degrees in Galveston in 1899. Man...

I know some people who went through the Feb 1960 storm, they have some interesting stories, they even have some pictures from it, interesting stuff!

What an amazing year stretch of weather that must have been for Galvestonians ... to go from 8 degrees in winter to the infamous 1900 hurricane. I seem to recall reference to the arctic outbreak when I read "Isaac's Storm."

On another note ... the 6z and 12z runs from today's GFS hold up any arctic air from impacting the southern Plains. Don't know what to make of this development. The ensembles also look a little warmer ... but some suggest the literal weight of this dense, cold air may overwhelm the more zonal upper pattern ... kinda like what AFM has been referring to earlier.

Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[weatherrabbit_tx]

That 1895 storm, I just can't picture that in my mind. I have trouble picturing 20 inches of snowfall in Houston. If that happened, I might explode, I don't know. Just unbelievable. I wonder how ingredients came together so well to produce not just 1 foot, but almost 2 feet of snow!!! Boggles the mind.

Nor can I believe it reached 8 degrees in Galveston in 1899. Man...

I know some people who went through the Feb 1960 storm, they have some interesting stories, they even have some pictures from it, interesting stuff!

What an amazing year stretch of weather that must have been for Galvestonians ... to go from 8 degrees in winter to the infamous 1900 hurricane. I seem to recall reference to the arctic outbreak when I read "Isaac's Storm."

On another note ... the 6z and 12z runs from today's GFS hold up any arctic air from impacting the southern Plains. Don't know what to make of this development. The ensembles also look a little warmer ... but some suggest the literal weight of this dense, cold air may overwhelm the more zonal upper pattern ... kinda like what AFM has been referring to earlier.

Link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

parts of galveston bay had ice as I read, however the main channel didnt, that was so might cold stuff in 1899

[weatherrabbit_tx]

was thinking if galveston had 7 or 8 degrees, guess houston area was below zero?

[Extremeweatherguy]

the zones from Joe Bastardi says no arctic air over the next week, but starting Feb. 1st he expects the southern plains to enter a very stormy and very cold period and that we will see many weather headaches down this way. AFM what is your latest prediction on the possible events coming up? Has anything changed? or do you still expect the same things you did yesterday?

[Air Force Met]

the zones from Joe Bastardi says no arctic air over the next week, but starting Feb. 1st he expects the southern plains to enter a very stormy and very cold period and that we will see many weather headaches down this way. AFM what is your latest prediction on the possible events coming up? Has anything changed? or do you still expect the same things you did yesterday?

Haven't really had a chance to look really good at it. I still expect it after the 1st as well....but I am still not sold on a due south shot. I am still thinking that most goes east of us.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

the zones from Joe Bastardi says no arctic air over the next week, but starting Feb. 1st he expects the southern plains to enter a very stormy and very cold period and that we will see many weather headaches down this way. AFM what is your latest prediction on the possible events coming up? Has anything changed? or do you still expect the same things you did yesterday?

That sounds about right. Most of the models to date haven't showed the air hitting Texas till after the 1st. Still along way out.

If it's any comfort to we that are wanting some more cold. The NWS busted on this mini cool snap we are going through. It was supposed to be in the mid 60's today and we barley got to 60 around noon and the temp dropped from there to about 50 by 5PM. If we are damp on Sunday I would expect them to bust again on the temps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

good point cctxhurricanewatcher. Tomorrow, I bet the 56 forecasted in Houston turns out to be more like 52...especially if we see that 100% chance of rain they are calling for. I wouldn't even be surprised if we didn't get much above our expected low tonight (48)...especially if the rain starts early.

[richtrav]

not only did it get down to 8 degrees in Galveston in 1899, it did it at about 10:30 to 11 am in the morning, with a cloudy sky and a good wind coming out of the north. I think it was only abot 3 degrees colder in Houston. But really I doubt any of us will live to see anything like that happen, it was certainly less than a 100-year event in Texas

[beachbum_al]

So does this mean that in February the South East is going to see very cold temps with lots of rain. This winter has been so strange here in Alabama which I am sure is the same for all over the southeast. Little rain compared to the normal rainfall for this area during this time of year. Temps way above normal. I am beginning to think it is actually May.

[Portastorm]

I'm not sure what to think anymore of the much ballyhooed turn to winter that we all have been discussing. None of the operational models show it now. Coldest air gets shunted east after Feb. 1st. In fact, the last two GFS runs almost blow torch the southern Plains. Ensembles also look more mixed.

Can't help but think .... once again .... Lucy conned me into thinking she would hold the football while I kick it. I ran to kick it AND .... well, you know the rest.

[Johnny]

That has been the pattern for us here in the South this winter which isn't unusual at all. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we didn't get anymore arctir air down here this winter. Hey, we live in Southeast, Texas By God!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

We'll get cold, again. I'm sure we'll freeze and go into the real cold in February. However, the beautiful thing about the South, is once it's over, we'll start to moderate and head for Spring. And then, again, we'll head into tropical season...OMG. I don't EVEN want to think about a hurricane for, at least, another decade!!!

[beachbum_al]

But it seems like we have had more rain and colder weather than this in South Alabama than we have had this year.

[gboudx]

I'm not sure what to think anymore of the much ballyhooed turn to winter that we all have been discussing. None of the operational models show it now. Coldest air gets shunted east after Feb. 1st. In fact, the last two GFS runs almost blow torch the southern Plains. Ensembles also look more mixed.

Can't help but think .... once again .... Lucy conned me into thinking she would hold the football while I kick it. I ran to kick it AND .... well, you know the rest.

Let's see some consistency and continuity before thinking Lucy will pull the ball again.

[boca]

The AC been on all week.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm just worried that the models may be losing the cold shot in the long range only to surprise us with it again in about 5 days. Seems like the GFS loves to do that...it will show a massive shot of arctic air..lose it..and then 5 days later it's back. I am not ready to call off the cold shot in early Feb. until I see about a weeks worth of runs that do not support it.

[mike815]

lol cold shot this front comming in early this week is pathetic lol

[Portastorm]

I'm just worried that the models may be losing the cold shot in the long range only to surprise us with it again in about 5 days. Seems like the GFS loves to do that...it will show a massive shot of arctic air..lose it..and then 5 days later it's back. I am not ready to call off the cold shot in early Feb. until I see about a weeks worth of runs that do not support it.

The GFS is picking it up again, albeit today's 6z run. In fact, at the end of the operational run, it shows a massive snowstorm for Texas! .... and that and $1.80 will get you a venti hot coffee @ Starbucks!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm just worried that the models may be losing the cold shot in the long range only to surprise us with it again in about 5 days. Seems like the GFS loves to do that...it will show a massive shot of arctic air..lose it..and then 5 days later it's back. I am not ready to call off the cold shot in early Feb. until I see about a weeks worth of runs that do not support it.

The GFS is picking it up again, albeit today's 6z run. In fact, at the end of the operational run, it shows a massive snowstorm for Texas! .... and that and $1.80 will get you a venti hot coffee @ Starbucks!

well lets hope i'm near a starbucks when the storm hits! or else I might get stuck in the huge snow drifts!!! lol. But yeah thats good that the GFS is starting to pick up on the cold again...I knew it would come back around...lets just hope that this time it doesn't change again.

[BReb]

The GFS is all over the map on this thing- one run it's hitting the southeast on Feb. 4, the next run it's whacking west Texas a couple of days later. We shall see.