How much storm surge: Category 3 Hit Tampa Bay?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I live in Northeast St. Petersburg at an elevation of 10 ft.

If Category 3 brings surge into Tampa Bay...how high will
the water go...most of the water goes up into the bay...into
Tampa...but how much would go into Northeast St. Petersburg?

[JonathanBelles]

i live in kenneth city or northwest st. pete with an elevation of 14ft and i live in a level d or last to evacuate

i would almost say pinellas county is gone if any hurricane hits tampa bay but here is a site featuring surge effects http://www.pinellascounty.org/emergency ... gories.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I live at the very eastern edge of this county...I am underwater in a
Category 1!!!!!!

[mike815]

wow good graphics yes it would be bad it has happened before it will happen again but now its heavilly populated

[Ixolib]

That map is unreal. We're moving to that area (Wife's already there) and will live somewhere in eastern Pinellas since the wife has to commute to Brandon every day.

Daughter now lives in Largo (she lost everything in Katrina and hauled butt outta here!!) Can't really tell from the above graphic, but is Largo one of the "higher" areas??

Just a little off topic, but do any of you resident members know of anyone who might have a house for long-term rent in the area? Wouldn't mind being near the Gandy...

[MiamiensisWx]

Amazing graphics. I can't imagine what any hurricane or tropical storm might do there, especially a hurricane.

[mike815]

yes now that there has been soo much buildup here it would be unbelievable thank god charley turned

[Ixolib]

yes now that there has been soo much buildup here it would be unbelievable thank god charley turned

Ain't that the truth.

I wonder, though, what the surge would have been with a Charley-type storm. Surge didn't seem to be an overwhelming issue for those in Punta Gorda or the outer islands, although it did have an impact. Is the surge potential significantly greater for Tampa Bay than it is for Charlotte Harbor (besides the extreme difference in population and urban congestion).

[JonathanBelles]

That map is unreal. We're moving to that area (Wife's already there) and will live somewhere in eastern Pinellas since the wife has to commute to Brandon every day.

Daughter now lives in Largo (she lost everything in Katrina and hauled butt outta here!!) Can't really tell from the above graphic, but is Largo one of the "higher" areas??

Just a little off topic, but do any of you resident members know of anyone who might have a house for long-term rent in the area? Wouldn't mind being near the Gandy...

largo is one of the higher areas

[wxman57]

I keep trying to point out that surge is not a direct function of the tiny area of peak wind in a hurricane (I.E., the SS rating). A Cat 3 like Katrina could produce a surge into Tampa Bay as large or larger than that Cat 5 graphic. It's all about the SIZE of the hurricane. Charley had the intensity, but not the size to produce a large surge. Katrina lacked the peak core intensity, but its size pushed a very large volume of water into MS coast. Tampa Bay is one of the most surge-vulnerable areas of the U.S. Coast - along with the New Orleans/MS Coast and the Houston/Galveston area.

[JonathanBelles]

yea dennis (meteorologist) says surge in a cat 1 is like that of a cat 3 in tampa bay

[wxman57]

yea dennis (meteorologist) says surge in a cat 1 is like that of a cat 3 in tampa bay

That's not what I was saying. But, yes, it's true that the surge into Tampa Bay would be double or more (for the same size hurricane) what would be experienced along the outer beaches like over in Clearwater.

[Opal storm]

yea dennis (meteorologist) says surge in a cat 1 is like that of a cat 3 in tampa bay

That's not what I was saying. But, yes, it's true that the surge into Tampa Bay would be double or more (for the same size hurricane) what would be experienced along the outer beaches like over in Clearwater.

I think that's the same for Pensacola too.The surge was much higher along the bay than it was on the beaches during Ivan.

[JonathanBelles]

yes any 90+degree bay will get hit harder than any straight beach

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

So during a storm the size of Ivan or Katrina,
the surge if it is Cat 3 would be anywhere from 18-23 feet
and if it hits Cat 5 in the GOM prior to some weakening
before landfall, 25-35 feet?

[Scorpion]

I highly doubt the water will go up as high as those maps say.

[Ixolib]

I highly doubt the water will go up as high as those maps say.

Sounds like what everyone used to say around here - until Katrina came along...

[wxman57]

So during a storm the size of Ivan or Katrina,
the surge if it is Cat 3 would be anywhere from 18-23 feet
and if it hits Cat 5 in the GOM prior to some weakening
before landfall, 25-35 feet?

Actually, a storm like Katrina moving NE into Tampa Bay could conceivably produce a surge closer to 20-28 feet into Tampa Bay. But don't assume a Cat 5 would produce a significantly higher surge just based upon the peak core wind, particularly if the Cat 5 winds were blowing only over a small part of the ocean. Only a Cat 5 with a very large core of Cat 4-5 winds would produce a much higher surge than a Cat 3 like Katrina.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

It's not all size - Camille was tiny. Don't get too comfortable just because a storm might be Charley-sized.