Will New Orleans be hit by another major hurricane?

[JonathanBelles]

dum french (no offense)

[wxmann_91]

dum french (no offense)

Actually initially it was a small village on the highest land in the vicinity - the French Quarter, which is one of the few places in southeastern Louisiana above sea level (today). Not until we bought New Orleans did we expand it, into areas that would naturally flood and keep the land from sinking. Then we realized we made a big mistake when early in the 1900's several major floods occurred along the Mississippi and New Orleans was significantly flooded, so we decided to build levees. And thus began the flood prevention program and the beginning of the sinking for southeastern Louisiana.

So, in retrospect, we were the dumb ones.

[JonathanBelles]

true

[zoeyann]

Audrey2Katrina, actually thanks for the long post. My knowledge is limited, but I am interested and therefore love learning more

[JonathanBelles]

My knowledge is limited, but I am interested and therefore love learning more

same goes for me

[Pearl River]

This link will take you to a history of New Orleans.

http://www.madere.com/history.html

[JonathanBelles]

too much to read for me

[Derek Ortt]

or even worse would have been had Elena have tracked about 2 degrees to the south. It would have made landfall directly into the city, resulting in the shallow GOM waters surging directly into the city, not through the marshlands first. A Betsy going up the Mississippi would be nearly as bad, which is what was feared (a track of Katrina 20 miles west would have done that). Not only would the surge be higher, but people could not go into their attacs as the roofs likely would have been blown off by the cat 3 winds

[Ixolib]

or even worse would have been had Elena have tracked about 2 degrees to the south. It would have made landfall directly into the city, resulting in the shallow GOM waters surging directly into the city, not through the marshlands first. A Betsy going up the Mississippi would be nearly as bad, which is what was feared (a track of Katrina 20 miles west would have done that). Not only would the surge be higher, but people could not go into their attacs as the roofs likely would have been blown off by the cat 3 winds

At least they'd have been able to escape the rising water. To where, though, is the question...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Ahh, yes, Elena was a scary thing. I remember well the weird track that puppy took. First heading toward us much akin to a Betsy or Katrina, then a sharp turn back to Florida; all breathing a sigh of relief, then a hairpin turn and heading back toward Louisiana tracking almost parallel to the coast. Indeed, had this one tracked a little further south it would have been truly a disaster, and I do recall telling everyone I knew that if she didn't go into the Miss/Ala coast it could spell disaster for New Orleans. Fortunately we did not have to find out. I believe it was around the same time as Katrina as well some 20 years ago. Late August through September is the "brunt" of the season for the New Orleans area, although not the state as a whole. Audrey, after all, killed 350 plus in Cameron in June of '57.

A2K

[Pearl River]

If you want to see a worst case scenario for N.O go to :

http://www.nd.edu/%7Eadcirc/examples.htm

Scroll down until you see ADCIRC Examples and Feature Demonstrations

Then click on Hurricane Pam- a hypothetical hurricane

Hurricane Pam was a hypothetical, slow moving, Class 3 storm used as a worst-case scenario for New Orleans. The storm track and parameters were provided by the National Weather Service. The three movies show Pam as it approaches and passes New Orleans, at different zoom levels. Right-click on the image and select play to view the clip.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Thanks for the link, Pearlriver, I found it an interesting read. Already had studied most of that stuff in my La. History courses; but always room to add to the stock of info. I'll be waiting for the next installment.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yeah, I saw that scenario posted on an LSU link, looked at the Betsy one, and that one. Interesting. It shows the storm appearing to approach from just southeast of Grand Isle, then moving slightly west into Caminada Bay, and pushing water up through the Lafitte region and tracking like Katrina did (almost due North) and with it's easterly winds bringing enormous surge into both lakes Borgne and Pontchartrain. Of course it's experimental and hypothetical... but scary nonetheless.

A2K

[Pearl River]

A2K wrote

Yeah, I saw that scenario posted on an LSU link, looked at the Betsy one, and that one. Interesting. It shows the storm appearing to approach from just southeast of Grand Isle, then moving slightly west into Caminada Bay, and pushing water up through the Lafitte region and tracking like Katrina did (almost due North) and with it's easterly winds bringing enormous surge into both lakes Borgne and Pontchartrain. Of course it's experimental and hypothetical... but scary nonetheless.

Yes. It didn't look good for the Northshore either.

[Jim Cantore]

dont take this the wrong way... but the NGOM is the best place for a major to hit as it will not cause much damage in a relative sense... sort of what we saw with Dennis. It will be a set back for the areas, but the overall impact will be less than if one crashes into Corpus Christi. This was evidenced in Frances and jeanne when the stronger Jeanne caaused less damage than Frances as Jeanne hit an already devastated region

no its not

Kenedy County Texas is Remember Bret? a storm that could've done billions in damage? Held to 30 million

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yes. It didn't look good for the Northshore either.

I was wondering if you noticed that... the whole Northshore turned a very ugly shade of deep red--ominous isn't it. It would seem this particular "worst case" would be one coming from due south of the city and passing barely west, probably with the eyewall passing directly over Jefferson Parish: *sigh*... hopefully it'll not happen for those 10,000 years.

[Derek Ortt]

Kennedy County is only good if it is compact. A Katrina sized storm would devastate the populated areas to the north

[Pearl River]

A2K.

I was watching WWL News one night recently and they had a story about Dr.Kam-biu Liu from LSU. His backsground is in Paleotempestolgy-use of proxy records to study hurricane activity on a millennial scale. He said that we are actually on the end of a downturn in millennial hurricane activity and this is the beginning of an upswing in activity. Isn't that scary!

[Derek Ortt]

yes, I have heard about that as well. Unfortunately, Katrina and Rita seem to have delayed that study.

If we are starting a long-term active cycle, 2005 may just be par for the course

I wonder what the cause of these shifts will be. It would likely mean a reduction in WPAC activity. Maybe something with the planetary waves shifts or something

[Audrey2Katrina]

A2K.

I was watching WWL News one night recently and they had a story about Dr.Kam-biu Liu from LSU. His backsground is in Paleotempestolgy-use of proxy records to study hurricane activity on a millennial scale. He said that we are actually on the end of a downturn in millennial hurricane activity and this is the beginning of an upswing in activity. Isn't that scary!

Yes it is. The only consolation I can take is that people who deal in paleo-anything tend to be dealing in terms of geological timescales; and while this could mean bad news next year or decade, it could also still be off by at least several hundreds to thousands of years--and that there are frequently some in the same field who take a contentious viewpoint if for no better reason than the notoriety it'll garner them. Returning, yes, it is quite scary.

A2K