WPAC: PAGASA - Invest 98W - JTWC: TCFA CANCELLED

[JonathanBelles]

ok

[P.K.]

Nothing on the JMA page, this is all I can find on it. (Highlighted bit at the end)

WWJP25 RJTD 211800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211800.
WARNING VALID 221800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 990 HPA
AT 34N 147E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 34N 147E TO 34N 149E 34N 151E.
WARM FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 32N 156E 29N 158E.
COLD FRONT FROM 34N 151E TO 29N 147E 27N 141E 24N 136E.
WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 700 MILES OF LOW NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
600 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 45N 159E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 53N 159E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 900 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 300
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
NORTHERN PART OF SEA OF OKHOTSK.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
SOUTHERN PART OF EAST CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 45N 174E 45N 180E 37N 180E 41N 171E 45N 174E.
GALE WARNING.
EXPECTED NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING
OVER SEA OF JAPAN FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1000 HPA AT 54N 148E WEST SLOWLY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 129E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 36N 172E EAST 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

LOOKING NICE!

[JonathanBelles]

is there an official summary/advisory

[JonathanBelles]

can anyone get onto the pagasa site? is it down?

[mike815]

hmmm looking better still and sry i dont know

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

When will the JTWC upgrade?

[senorpepr]

When will the JTWC upgrade?

When it is time. Patience, young grasshopper.

(Seriously, 98W has to meet a checklist. Until it reaches enough "points" on that checklist, it will remain an invest. For what it's worth, this is, officially, a depression. Remember, JMA is the official agency. The JTWC's purpose is for military assets.)

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 220600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 220600.
WARNING VALID 230600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 972 HPA
AT 37N 154E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 35 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 37N 154E TO 39N 157E 40N 160E 39N 161E.
WARM FRONT FROM 39N 161E TO 36N 165E 34N 166E.
COLD FRONT FROM 39N 161E TO 37N 160E 35N 159E 30N 155E 27N 148E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND
700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230600UTC AT 47N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 55N 152E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 600 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 500
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 10N 128E NW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 37N 178E EAST 15 KT.
HIGH 1024 HPA AT 55N 180E ESE 10 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[senorpepr]

PAGASA's website is back up...

Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 p.m.) 350 kms east northeast of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte

Coordinates: 10.7°N, 128.7°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center
Movement: west northwest at 7 kph
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Monday afternoon:
190 kms east of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Tuesday afternoon:
90 kms north of Guiuan, Eastern Samar
Wednesday afternoon:
80 kms north northwest of Catbalogan, Eastern Samar

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So those large balls been they are forecasting it to strengthing?

[senorpepr]

Those "large balls" are just the forecast position. Their forecast indicates no strengthening as the system will be crossing Visayas.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.0N
129.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE
AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CYCLING CONVECTION LOCATED ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE POLEWARD
DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 221200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221200.
WARNING VALID 231200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 41N 159E FAR OFF EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHEAST 40 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 41N 159E TO 42N 162E 40N 166E.
WARM FRONT FROM 40N 166E TO 38N 168E 35N 170E.
COLD FRONT FROM 40N 166E TO 37N 164E 35N 161E 30N 158E 26N 150E.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1000 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231200UTC AT 49N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 150
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 55N 150E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 550 MILES OF LOW EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA
OF JAPAN.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 10N 128E WEST SLOWLY.
HIGH 1040 HPA AT 41N 105E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 221800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 221800.
WARNING VALID 231800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 964 HPA
AT 44N 161E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 30 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 44N 161E TO 43N 165E 41N 168E.
WARM FRONT FROM 41N 168E TO 38N 172E 35N 174E.
COLD FRONT FROM 41N 168E TO 38N 169E 33N 165E 29N 160E 28N 156E.
WINDS 30 TO 60 KNOTS WITHIN 1200 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 231800UTC AT 49N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER SEA
OF JAPAN.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER
WATERS BOUNDED BY 28N 121E 23N 132E 18N 129E 19N 121E 16N 112E 22N
112E 24N 118E 28N 121E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 55N 148E WEST 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 10N 127E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1044 HPA AT 54N 115E ALMOST STATIONARY.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

wow

[HURAKAN]

wow

[mike815]

its explodeing

[senorpepr]

My contacts in the central Philippines said that it's more pleasant there today thanks to Agaton. Temperatures are in the mid 70s rather than low 80s and the dewpoints are in the low 60s rather than low 80s.