WPAC: PAGASA - Invest 98W - JTWC: TCFA CANCELLED

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.0N 134.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. A 200931Z QSCAT PASS REVEALS A POSSIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) COINCIDENT WITH THE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE
LIES IN A REGION OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH FAVORABLE
POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.






Over the past 24 hours the system has become better organized with strong convection forming near or over its possible LLC and some banding is evident in satellite images. If the current organization trend continues, it has a good change to become a tropical depression over the next 36 to 48 hours, maybe less! NOGAPS also shows a system developing in this area over the mentioned period of time. Even if it develops or not, the Central and Southern Philippines islands should expect heavy rain and some gusty winds as the system continues moving westward.

[Coredesat]

20/2033 UTC 6.9N 130.8E T1.0/1.0 98W

[HURAKAN]

21/0233 UTC 7.2N 129.7E T1.5/1.5 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like its getting close to become our first depression.

[senorpepr]

Officially it is our first depression.

According to JMA (Japan), TD 0601 has formed to the southeast of the Philippines.




PAGASA (Philippines) has issued the following:

Code: Select all

Weather
Issued At: 5:00 p.m., 21 January 2006
Synopsis :  At 2:00 p.m. today, a Tropical Depression "AGATON" was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 220 kms east northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur (9.0°N 128.3°E) With maximum sustained winds of 45 kph near the center. It is moving west northwest at 15 kph.

[/code]


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Looks like northern Mindanao and the eastern Visayas regions will be affected in the near future with the rest of Visayas and southern parts of Luzon getting into the action in a couple of days.

[senorpepr]

PASAGA has issued a Public Storm Warning for the following...

In Luzon: None.
In Visayas: Leyte, Camotes Island, and Samar Provinces.
In Mindanao: Surigao Provinces, Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, and Agusan Del Norte.

Expect 30-60 kph (19-37 mph) winds.

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tc_up.html

[mike815]

so this is not an invest anymore?

[senorpepr]

so this is not an invest anymore?

Officially, this is a tropical depression. However, JTWC and NRL are still carrying it as an invest.


I've updated the S2K Worldwide Tropical Update to show satellite imagery and links from JMA and PAGASA. When JTWC finally upgrades to 01W, it'll add those links.

http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/wpac.htm

[mike815]

ok thanks

[HURAKAN]

[P.K.]

According to JMA (Japan), TD 0601 has formed to the southeast of the Philippines.

TDs aren't numbered by the JMA.

The next name on the list is Chanchu. Just waiting for the first advisory from the JMA which should be out soon.

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 996 HPA
AT 33N 145E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 33N 145E TO 33N 146E 33N 147E.
WARM FRONT FROM 33N 147E TO 32N 150E 30N 153E.
COLD FRONT FROM 33N 147E TO 30N 145E 28N 141E 25N 138E 24N 135E.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 800 MILES OF LOW
FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 42N 158E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 1000 HPA
AT 54N 148E SEA OF OKHOTSK MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 400 MILES OF LOW.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 996 HPA
AT 51N 166E SEA EAST OF KAMCHATKA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN 500 MILES OF LOW NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 400
MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER EAST
CHINA SEA.
GALE WARNING.
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS
BOUNDED BY 36N 180E 39N 170E 47N 170E 44N 180E 36N 180E.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA.
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 09N 130E WNW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1020 HPA AT 33N 170E EAST 25 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

LOTS OF CONVECTION, BUT NO SIGN OF BANDS.

[senorpepr]

According to JMA (Japan), TD 0601 has formed to the southeast of the Philippines.

TDs aren't numbered by the JMA.

The next name on the list is Chanchu. Just waiting for the first advisory from the JMA which should be out soon.

That's right. I've said it before and I'll say it again... I shouldn't make posts just before going to bed.

I'll leave it as 0601 for now because A) I'm really too tired to make the needed changes to the webpage and B) there is a good chance I'll just have to change it back anyway.

But yes... TD aren't numbered by JMA.

[P.K.]

lol, that would explain why the JMA bit you posted was 35 degrees further north than the TD then. (I had noticed but didn't want to say anything )

[HURAKAN]

21/1433 UTC 9.2N 128.7E T1.5/1.5 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

NO CHANGE.

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have a west pacific tracking chart?

[JonathanBelles]

and is it agaton or chanchu?

[WindRunner]

and is it agaton or chanchu?

Agaton is the Phillipine center's name for it, which is not official. The JMA does the official naming for the WPAC, and that name will be Chanchu as soon as the storm reaches TS strength per the JMA.

[JonathanBelles]

ok so the phillipenes do the naming for td's? and Japan does naming for TS's and tyhoop's?

[HURAKAN]

ok so the phillipenes do the naming for td's? and Japan does naming for TS's and tyhoop's?

No. David Michael V. Padua, the owner of Typhoon2000.ph, a Philippine Meteorologist and/or weather enthusiast has designated a name list that he uses to name tropical depressions/tropical storm/typhoons. The Philippines don't do any type of naming.

These are his archives:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/archives.htm