Phoenix, one week away from a historic mark

[azsnowman]

Phoenix and the lower desert areas of Arizona is but one week away from an ALL time record......101 days WITHOUT rain, can you BELIEVE this horse hockey? I mean 101 DAYS without ANY MOISTURE.........

Recent tree ring studies by the USDA Forest Service has indicated that this drought is the WORST EVER......I will pull up some info.to verify this statement.

Dennis

[millerblizzard1]

Truly a remarkable yet absoultely horrible weather event. The long term consequenses are scary.

[TT-SEA]

Well... we cannot stop getting hammered up here.

Our mountains are buried. Absolutely buried.

Mount Baker ski resort closed earlier this week because of too much snow!!

Just up the road from my house at just 3,000 feet they have 100+ inches of snow on the ground and its still snowing.

We have the complete opposite of drought up here.

[TT-SEA]

Just up I-90 from my house right now...

[Portastorm]

Just up I-90 from my house right now...

Oh, if we could only replicate this image to happen on Interstate 35!

[azsnowman]

:( Truly a remarkable yet absoultely horrible weather event. The long term consequenses are scary.

It is....in my 39 years
on the mountain, I've NEVER
seen it so dry, the BIG snow
we had a coupla days ago (2.1")
is a FAR cry from normal. Normal to
date snowpack SHOULD be
85" now and we've had
2.1"..........truly an
apocoliptic event in the making! I'm
keeping my eyes to the East, waiting
for the END...................................................

Dennis

[azsnowman]

One more day and the record will be tied.......then ON to the HISTORY, the driest in OVER "500" years, not DAYS but YEARS.....can you BELIEVE this horse hockey

Dennis

[arizonasooner]

So how long do you think we go without rain???

If we go past March, things could get really ugly.

Maybe August 5th or thereabouts for the next rain in PHX??? That would be close to 300 days. Wow.

[Aslkahuna]

I'll have to check, but I believe that the longest stretch without measureable rain in the US is something like 769 days in the Mojave Desert of SE CA. Last night I was discussing this with the two Mets from TUS who were here for the SKYWARN meeting and will be discussing this with my son who plans to do a paper on ENSO teleconnections with the monsoon. It's been my experience that post Niño monsoons tend to start late, are erratic and severe while Niña monsoons tend to start earlier and are less erratic and severe. That said, however, erratic is a trademark of monsoons worldwide.

Steve

[Stratosphere747]

This may sound like a strange question, but does Phoenix even experience dew in the mornings?

[azsnowman]

Steve, my bets are on the 769 days...the way things are going it wouldn't suprise me ONE BIT for us NOT to see ANY MONSOON activity this summer.......no, I'll take that back, there WILL be "Dry Thunderstorms" to set the nations largest wildfire into motion. My bets are we will have a fire in May that will wipe the White MOuntains off the face of the earth and leave it looking WORSE than the moonscape of the Rodeo Chediski Fire................I dropped a cigarette on the ground this afternoon in the yard and it caught the friggin GRASS on fire, now mind you, this was AFTER the snow we had yesterday.........that's just how DRY it is, it REALLY and TRULY BITES the big one..................

Dennis

[wxmann_91]

The huge snows/rains in the Pac NW, and the bone-dry south - signs of a La Nina. Good luck getting rains since La Nina is expected to get stronger in the next few months before winding down.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, monsoons in La Niña years in the past have been decently wet. Phoenix can get dew at night after a winter rain and we've even been known to have heavy frost and fog in the desert after same. Also, in the Summer when the dewpoints are elevated (in the 60's and 70's) dew can also occur.

Steve

[azsnowman]

http://www.azfamily.com

Longest dry spell in Phoenix

09:04 AM Mountain Standard Time on Friday, January 27, 2006
By Royal Norman / 3TV meteorologist



Today marks the day that we've had 101 days straight without a drop of rain in Phoenix. That ties the current record, which was set back in 1999-2000. The last time it rained here was Oct. 18, 2005. Tomorrow, we will set a new record of 102 days without rain. And the next day, and the next day, we'll keep adding to that unenviable record until we get some rain.


The record keepers like to point out that there is another dry streak that's significantly longer for Phoenix. The "granddaddy" of dry streaks for the Valley is 160 days without "measurable" rain. In other words, how long it's been since we received .01 inches or more of rain. I guess they figure a few drops of rain here and there don't matter.


So we break the first streak, 101 days in a row without any rain, and we set our eyes on the prize of 160 days in a row without measurable rain.


So, 101 days without rain is bad, but it could be worse. Tucson's record dry streak without rain is 114 days. A few years back, San Diego set a new dry streak, more than 180 days without rain. In the United States, the longest dry streak is 767 days at Bagdad, Calif. And for the entire planet, the longest dry streak we're aware of is the Atacama Desert, which is near the Andes in Chile. It's said that some parts of that desert haven't seen rain in 400 years!


I'm just trying to figure out how they managed to track that record.

[azsnowman]

The way it's going I'm NOW placing my bets on the next rain in Phoenix will be 2406 .......seriously, "Stormin' Royal Norman" said tonight that there's NOTHING on the HORIZON for the NEXT 90 DAYS That'll break the ALL time record of 160 days without a doubt...........it's ONLY a matter of time before thw whole mountain(s) go up in flames

Dennis

[azsnowman]

102 days and counting........God have MERCY on US "PLEASE PRAY!"

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

Well, my memory was good but just not good enough since I missed the US record by 2 days. In another venue and in e-mails plus in discussions in an Internet location I can not disclose, I have frequently brought up the spectre of 1999-2000 since I note the similarities in many ways to the 1999 monsoon and Fall of 1999 and 2005. As far as what lies ahead, in 2000 we strangely wound up with the only wetter than normal year in the period from 1996 through the present year but that was because we had four wet months during the year including the wettest June in living memory and an astonishing October. August and November were also wet but the rest of 2000 was dry. However, at this point in time I am not going for anything like 2000. I fear that ongoing drought will suppress whatever gain in monsoon rainfall I might expect from the current La Niña.

Steve

[P.K.]

Over 100 days without rain?? Wow, can't image that.

[Aslkahuna]

Strangely enough, although the Atacama is bone dry it's not a hot desert but lies inland from an upwelling zone of cold water and thus gets lots of fog. This is how people can live there as they harvest the fog for water which they store and use as needed. From the nature of the mineral deposits in the Atacama, they can tell when and if it has ever rained at any given location.

Steve

[TT-SEA]

The other end of the extreme here... 19+ inches of rain at our house since mid-December.

Some snow as well... but mostly rain.


Here is Lake Sammamish just east of Seattle and just west of our house. Notice the submerged docks...





But check out our local ski resort just 15 miles the other way with 100+ inches on the ground...





Here is their web site...
http://www.summit-at-snoqualmie.com/winter/index.asp


Incredible snow for only being around 3,000 feet.