most due top ten

[Extremeweatherguy]

WASHINGTON DC:

The worst would be a Cat. 4 that was expected to turn out to sea to suddenly turn towards the city overnight. This would leave little time for evacuation and the city would be caught off gaurd. If the storm hit with winds that high then many of DC's great monuments and landmarks might suffer serious damage. Also, important govermental buildings could recieve severe damage and loss of power/water. The nations governmental proceedures may come to a stand still, and god forbid if any high governemtal officials were injured or killed due to lack of readiness. This storm would probably cause 50+ billion and the death toll would likely top 200.

I do not agree with that since a) Most government buildings are constructed extremely well, and b) How is a hurricane going to make it to D.C. in one piece (since it is about 50 miles inland)? The only way b. can be avoided is if a hurricane goes through Chesapeake Bay, and even then, it would weaken due to land interaction.

yes the buildings are constructed well, but with a monster storm minor damage would still be possible. Also, if we had a very large eye and it was angled right, then it may only weaken very slightly before reaching DC...especially if the storm was moving fast...and hurricanes do stay in one piece well past 50 miles inland. There have been cases where a hurricane was still a "hurricane" up to 200 miles inland...so 50 miles is nothing! I have seen 115mph Cat. 3 storms still be 90mph strong Cat. 1 storms up to 75 miles inland, so if it was a 140mph Cat. 4, then it could still be a 115mph Cat. 3 up to 75 miles inland (assuming that it did not have a large eye/go up cheesapeak bay/or move fast...if it did all these things then there may only be 5-10mph of weakening before reaching DC). Okay, may be my doomsday scenario for DC was slightly overdone for a probable scenario, but it is not impossible, even with a probable Cat. 1/2 in the city, then we would still be talking about widespread damage, power outages, etc. which may lead to some governmental problems.

[Brent]

put together a top 10 list of the Us cities and another top 10 list for places in the world most due for a direct hit of a major hurricane...
us...my 2 cents: new orleans: its dodged direct hits many times, houston, tampa, new york, LA, honalulu, ancorage/jeaneu, philidelphia, phoenix, and augusta maine

Huh?

[Derek Ortt]

DC is not coastal... so there would likely be 2 cats of weakening after landfall before reaching DC. Even at landfall, anything above a 3 is unlikely because the coastal waters near VA are cold and the hurricane would spend about 5 hours over shelf water before landfall

[milankovitch]

10 Worst Places for Worst Case Storms in Terms of Cost

1. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
2. New York City
3. Tampa/St. Pete
4. Houston/Galveston
5. Central Brevard County and Orlando
6. Cape Coral/Ft. Myers
7. West Palm Beach
8. Boston
9. Norfolk
10. New Orleans

Honorable Mentions: Corpus Christi, Florida West Coast, Savannah, Charleston, Beaumont/Port Arthur, DC to New York City, Sarasota, Jacksonville

10 Worst Places for Worst Case Storms in Terms of Loss of Life

1. New York City
2. Tampa/St. Pete
3. Houston/Galveston
4. Key West/Marathon
5. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
6. Cape Coral/Ft. Myers
7. New Orleans
8. Sarasota
9. Mobile
10. Central Brevard County and Orlando

[WindRunner]

They have had hurricane-force winds sustained with storms before. Storms like Isabel, though, which is the most recent to affect DC, brought a moderate TS to the area, and the only real damage was power lines and trees. A storm would have to be a real beast and moving pretty fast if there were to be a real wind impact on DC.

[Cookiely]

To say Anchorage and Juneau are the same is like saying New Orleans and Miami are the same. I mean--what's 600 little miles gonna do for ya.

Unless it was the size of Floyd. I can't picture in my mind what the effects would be in the GOM. Can you tell me if a storm like Floyd were in the center of the GOM what the effects would be from Florida to Texas?

[Cookiely]

1. Central Florida Atlantic coast
2. West Florida (Its been about 85 years since Tampa was hit by a major)
3. Georgia
4. South Texas Gulf coast
5. Outer Banks islands of NC
6. Central Texas Gulf coast
7. Florida Panhandle
8. Southeast Florida
9. Key West and the Florida keys
10. New York

[senorpepr]

To say Anchorage and Juneau are the same is like saying New Orleans and Miami are the same. I mean--what's 600 little miles gonna do for ya.

Unless it was the size of Floyd. I can't picture in my mind what the effects would be in the GOM. Can you tell me if a storm like Floyd were in the center of the GOM what the effects would be from Florida to Texas?

It wouldn't be nearly as bad as you think, but yeah--it would still be impressive.

[JamesFromMaine2]

My take on worst to not so bad:

1. New york City
2. Wahsington DC (Because of the govermental impact it would have)
3. Houston/Galveston
4. Miami (not in top 3 since it has been hit recently)
5. New Orleans (not in top 3 since it has been hit recently)
6. Tampa
7. Boston
8. Jacksonville
9. Corpus christi
10. Brownsville
11. Key West (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
12. Biloxi (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
13. Mobile (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
14. Pensacola (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
15. NC/SC coastal cities
16. Maine coastal cities

Worst Case Scenarios for the top 3 cities:

NEW YORK:

The worst case for New York would be a storm that came right up the bay into the city as a minimal Cat. 4. This kind of storm would obliterate skyscrapper windows and cause a massive 30+ foot storm surge. Damage would top 150 billion and the death toll would likely top 1000.

WASHINGTON DC:

The worst would be a Cat. 4 that was expected to turn out to sea to suddenly turn towards the city overnight. This would leave little time for evacuation and the city would be caught off gaurd. If the storm hit with winds that high then many of DC's great monuments and landmarks might suffer serious damage. Also, important govermental buildings could recieve severe damage and loss of power/water. The nations governmental proceedures may come to a stand still, and god forbid if any high governemtal officials were injured or killed due to lack of readiness. This storm would probably cause 50+ billion and the death toll would likely top 200.

HOUSTON/GALVESTON:

The worst case scenario would be for a Cat. 5 to come right up Galveston bay and into Houston. Galveston would be obliterated with all structures destroyed by winds and/or surge. Surge would also drive all the way to south Houston. In downtown, 150mph wind gusts may tear apart skyscrappers, signs, trees, windows, billboards, rip roofs, move cars, and cause overall destruction. Damage would likely top 100 billion and the death toll would likely exceed 500.

Well Maine Coastal cities would be me! we haven't had a hurricane here in Portland Maine since Bob back in 91 or 92 and thats one of the ways I got interested in weather and hurricanes was from Bob. If you ask me a Hurricane hitting Maine would be much worse then a hurricane hitting any part of florida since florida has the building codes for hurricanes where they get hit all the time unlike Maine! Yesterday we had winds gusting to like 50mph maybe 60mph at the highest and my roof was falling apart and you could see parts of it on the ground and we also lost power and that was only gusting to not even hurricane strength!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I feel are over due for a direct hit:

1. NYC
2. Boston
3. Galveston
4. Houston
5. Miami
6. Key West
7. East Port, ME
8. Newark, NJ (sp?)
9. Savannah
10. Fort Myers

[jasons2k]

Do you really think that the Savannah hit would be worse than a Norfolk/Bay Area hit? A huge storm surge from a storm moving NNW that makes landfall around Kitty Hawk would destroy the Outer Banks and Norfolk with winds and surge, and send a large surge up the bay to innundate both DC and Baltimore. Maybe this would work better in the doomsday thread, as that wouldn't be any one particular city that gets it bad there . . . never mind.

I dunno if a hit on Savannah would be worse than Norfolk, but it would be pretty bad. The shelf goes offshore quite a bit, unlike S. Fl., but more like the Gulf Coast. There is a lot of marsh and low-lying islands between Savannah itself and the barrier islands. The surge would be devastating for Savannah. Only the downtown area would be safe from a surge as it sits high on a bluff above the Savannah River.

[Javlin]

They have had hurricane-force winds sustained with storms before. Storms like Isabel, though, which is the most recent to affect DC, brought a moderate TS to the area, and the only real damage was power lines and trees. A storm would have to be a real beast and moving pretty fast if there were to be a real wind impact on DC.

Your right windrunner as soon as you said that a documentry came to mind.The Honor Guards at Arlington never left there post.Thay stayed put and walked there routes in tropical storm winds.Talk about duty.

[milankovitch]

I dunno if a hit on Savannah would be worse than Norfolk, but it would be pretty bad. The shelf goes offshore quite a bit, unlike S. Fl., but more like the Gulf Coast. There is a lot of marsh and low-lying islands between Savannah itself and the barrier islands. The surge would be devastating for Savannah. Only the downtown area would be safe from a surge as it sits high on a bluff above the Savannah River.

Maybe more extreme damage in Savannah but the population of the Norfolk area is a lot higher.

[AussieMark]

What about complacency issues on the Georgia coast?
Its been over 100 years since Georgia was last hit by a major.
and the last hurricane to hit the state was David back in 1979

[ROCK]

I feel are over due for a direct hit:

1. NYC
2. Boston
3. Galveston
4. Houston
5. Miami
6. Key West
7. East Port, ME
8. Newark, NJ (sp?)
9. Savannah
10. Fort Myers

I am not one to point out corrections because I make plenty myself BUT technically Galveston and Houston are one in the same. Got to get through GAL before you get to HOU.

here is my 2 cents....top 5

New York
Miami
Gal/ Hou
DC
Tampa

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree with James from Maine. I lost power at my house in the last storm. Our power grid up here isn't designed for great stress, or our building codes. Also people don't know how to prepare for those types of events up here, because they are not a yearly occurrence. A storm of the same size and strength would do a lot more damage in these parts than down South.

[lester]

Do you really think that the Savannah hit would be worse than a Norfolk/Bay Area hit? A huge storm surge from a storm moving NNW that makes landfall around Kitty Hawk would destroy the Outer Banks and Norfolk with winds and surge, and send a large surge up the bay to innundate both DC and Baltimore. Maybe this would work better in the doomsday thread, as that wouldn't be any one particular city that gets it bad there . . . never mind.

I never thought about that
Anyways (this is not in particular order, just off the top of my head)
1. NYC/Jersey Shore
2. New Orleans
3. Tampa
4. Miami
5. Galveston/Houston
6, Savannah
7. FL Keys
8. B-More/D.C
9. Outer Banks
10. Corpus Christi/US/MEX Border

[HouTXmetro]

HOUSTON/GALVESTON:

The worst case scenario would be for a Cat. 5 to come right up Galveston bay and into Houston. Galveston would be obliterated with all structures destroyed by winds and/or surge. Surge would also drive all the way to south Houston. In downtown, 150mph wind gusts may tear apart skyscrappers, signs, trees, windows, billboards, rip roofs, move cars, and cause overall destruction. Damage would likely top 100 billion and the death toll would likely exceed 500.

Damage would be much greater. You forgot about all the Chemical Plants in Pasadena/Baytown/Deer Park and La Porte that would be destroyed in such a scenario. Not only that, but Points East would be deluged by a massive storm surge possibly putting Port Arthor under water and crippling the entire TX/LA gasoline infrastructure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

HOUSTON/GALVESTON:

The worst case scenario would be for a Cat. 5 to come right up Galveston bay and into Houston. Galveston would be obliterated with all structures destroyed by winds and/or surge. Surge would also drive all the way to south Houston. In downtown, 150mph wind gusts may tear apart skyscrappers, signs, trees, windows, billboards, rip roofs, move cars, and cause overall destruction. Damage would likely top 100 billion and the death toll would likely exceed 500.

Damage would be much greater. You forgot about all the Chemical Plants in Pasadena/Baytown/Deer Park and La Porte that would be destroyed in such a scenario. Not only that, but Points East would be deluged by a massive storm surge possibly putting Port Arthor under water and crippling the entire TX/LA gasoline infrastructure.

very good points. That is why I said "damage would likely top 100 billion", because I thought that 100 billion would be the base for such a scenario. Honestly though, I completely forgot about the chemical plants and oil refineries while doing my prediction. If you take them into account then we would be talking about an economic disaster!

[yzerfan]

A big surge direct hit or a storm just missing to the west of Mobile would be extremely bad because of the funneling effect in Mobile Bay (wider mouth, narrow top of the bay) Most of downtown and a lot of homes along the Eastern Shore were well under water during Katrina, and that storm's worst passed significantly to the west of the city.