most due top ten

[JonathanBelles]

put together a top 10 list of the Us cities and another top 10 list for places in the world most due for a direct hit of a major hurricane...
us...my 2 cents: new orleans: its dodged direct hits many times, houston, tampa, new york, LA, honalulu, ancorage/jeaneu, philidelphia, phoenix, and augusta maine

[WindRunner]

I want to know how Anchorage and Juneau are the same place, and how Phoenix and LA as well as Anchorage/Jueau are going to get a direct hit from a major.

[JonathanBelles]

anchorage and juneau are close...pheonix from the south and west (gulf of california), and as seen in 2005 anything is possible

[Jim Cantore]

I'd replace Philly with the Jersey Shore

[WindRunner]

Anchorage to Juneau is over 600 miles as the crow flies - and no hurricane, much less a major, can make it over the Sierra Madres.

[JonathanBelles]

ok

[WindRunner]

Other than that, though, it's definately a good list.

[wxmann_91]

U.S. (from worst to not so bad)
1. New York City
2. New Orleans
3. Tampa/St. Pete
4. Miami
5. Houston/Galveston
6. Marathon/Key West/the Keys
7. Jacksonville
8. Mobile
9. Corpus Christi
10. Savannah

If I had more I would include Charleston, SC, Ocean Beach, MD, Atlantic City, NJ, Providence, RI, and the Norfolk area.


World (not necessarily overdue, but bad if a major TC did hit, and not in any particular order)
1. Bombay, India
2. Tokyo, Japan
3. Dhaka, Bangladesh
4. Shanghai, China
5. Taipei, Taiwan
6. Havana, Cuba
7. Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
8. San Juan, Puerto Rico
9. Kingston, Jamaica
10. Port-au-Prince, Haiti

[WindRunner]

Do you really think that the Savannah hit would be worse than a Norfolk/Bay Area hit? A huge storm surge from a storm moving NNW that makes landfall around Kitty Hawk would destroy the Outer Banks and Norfolk with winds and surge, and send a large surge up the bay to innundate both DC and Baltimore. Maybe this would work better in the doomsday thread, as that wouldn't be any one particular city that gets it bad there . . . never mind.

[wxmann_91]

Do you really think that the Savannah hit would be worse than a Norfolk/Bay Area hit? A huge storm surge from a storm moving NNW that makes landfall around Kitty Hawk would destroy the Outer Banks and Norfolk with winds and surge, and send a large surge up the bay to innundate both DC and Baltimore. Maybe this would work better in the doomsday thread, as that wouldn't be any one particular city that gets it bad there . . . never mind.

I don't know why I put Savannah higher up on the list, but probably because the chances of a major hurricane hitting Savannah is higher.

[JonathanBelles]

Do you really think that the Savannah hit would be worse than a Norfolk/Bay Area hit? A huge storm surge from a storm moving NNW that makes landfall around Kitty Hawk would destroy the Outer Banks and Norfolk with winds and surge, and send a large surge up the bay to innundate both DC and Baltimore. Maybe this would work better in the doomsday thread, as that wouldn't be any one particular city that gets it bad there . . . never mind.

I don't know why I put Savannah higher up on the list, but probably because the chances of a major hurricane hitting Savannah is higher.

really? i thought norfolks chances are higher

[WindRunner]

Yeah, I guess you have a point there. Norfolk's chances are less because the only angle a storm can hit them from is a very south-southeasterly one, as powerful storms generally do not form due east of Norfolk and head due west. So, in this sense, the chances of a storm hitting Savannah are much higher, historically, Savannah doesn't beat Norfolk by much in terms of storm hits, but it is definately more prone to a major.

[Derek Ortt]

Honolulu is one of the world places due to the high pop density, plus, the garbage that passes as a building code. That is one place where if there would be a high number of deaths, it would be due to wind, not water

[wxmann_91]

Honolulu is one of the world places due to the high pop density, plus, the garbage that passes as a building code. That is one place where if there would be a high number of deaths, it would be due to wind, not water

Oops

I forgot to put Honolulu on the list. I was remembering to put that but then my mind wandered off.

Good point Derek.

[AussieMark]

Would Atlantic City be bad if a cat 3 hit?

[senorpepr]

To say Anchorage and Juneau are the same is like saying New Orleans and Miami are the same. I mean--what's 600 little miles gonna do for ya.

[JonathanBelles]

it might be depends on the angle of impact but the city is also out on an outlet or barrier island

[wxmann_91]

Would Atlantic City be bad if a cat 3 hit?

Yes. Look at what has happened to Biloxi. Same fate befalls Atlantic City if a bonifide Cat 3 goes through the area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My take on worst to not so bad:

1. New york City
2. Wahsington DC (Because of the govermental impact it would have)
3. Houston/Galveston
4. Miami (not in top 3 since it has been hit recently)
5. New Orleans (not in top 3 since it has been hit recently)
6. Tampa
7. Boston
8. Jacksonville
9. Corpus christi
10. Brownsville
11. Key West (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
12. Biloxi (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
13. Mobile (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
14. Pensacola (not in top 10 since it has been hit recently)
15. NC/SC coastal cities
16. Maine coastal cities

Worst Case Scenarios for the top 3 cities:

NEW YORK:

The worst case for New York would be a storm that came right up the bay into the city as a minimal Cat. 4. This kind of storm would obliterate skyscrapper windows and cause a massive 30+ foot storm surge. Damage would top 150 billion and the death toll would likely top 1000.

WASHINGTON DC:

The worst would be a Cat. 4 that was expected to turn out to sea to suddenly turn towards the city overnight. This would leave little time for evacuation and the city would be caught off gaurd. If the storm hit with winds that high then many of DC's great monuments and landmarks might suffer serious damage. Also, important govermental buildings could recieve severe damage and loss of power/water. The nations governmental proceedures may come to a stand still, and god forbid if any high governemtal officials were injured or killed due to lack of readiness. This storm would probably cause 50+ billion and the death toll would likely top 200.

HOUSTON/GALVESTON:

The worst case scenario would be for a Cat. 5 to come right up Galveston bay and into Houston. Galveston would be obliterated with all structures destroyed by winds and/or surge. Surge would also drive all the way to south Houston. In downtown, 150mph wind gusts may tear apart skyscrappers, signs, trees, windows, billboards, rip roofs, move cars, and cause overall destruction. Damage would likely top 100 billion and the death toll would likely exceed 500.

[wxmann_91]

WASHINGTON DC:

The worst would be a Cat. 4 that was expected to turn out to sea to suddenly turn towards the city overnight. This would leave little time for evacuation and the city would be caught off gaurd. If the storm hit with winds that high then many of DC's great monuments and landmarks might suffer serious damage. Also, important govermental buildings could recieve severe damage and loss of power/water. The nations governmental proceedures may come to a stand still, and god forbid if any high governemtal officials were injured or killed due to lack of readiness. This storm would probably cause 50+ billion and the death toll would likely top 200.

I do not agree with that since a) Most government buildings are constructed extremely well, and b) How is a hurricane going to make it to D.C. in one piece (since it is about 50 miles inland)? The only way b. can be avoided is if a hurricane goes through Chesapeake Bay, and even then, it would weaken due to land interaction.