Doomsday storms

[Jim Cantore]

[Ixolib]

Those depictions do, in fact, present some very scary scenarios for each of the fictional landfalls!! I guess it's a good thing we're not in "season" right now or some folks might be getting freaked out about right now!!

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Only problem I see for track 4 is that storms tend to be "flying" up here. Bob for example was a cat 2 when it made landfall and it was still a 60 mph TS when the center was over my area later that day. Any typical storm hitting NYC as cat 5 would still be a cat 3 at the cat 1 position you show, or if it hit as a cat 4 would still be a cat 2; simply because it wouldn't have enough time to weaken that much at a forward speed of about 40 mph, or even higher.


PS: Other wise fantastic work

[JonathanBelles]

some of those look like katrina and rita

[Hurricaneman]

IMO scenerio 4 seems quite unlikely if impossible

[Derek Ortt]

scenario 2 and 3 happened (track wise) in 1947 and 1985

[hicksta]

Strength wise your off alot, no way a cane can hold cay 5 into New York or for a long time.

[MiamiensisWx]

This would truly be a nasty - yet realistic - storm for New York City (as well as New England and the Mid-Atlantic area)...



The storm is 650 miles wide at landfall and makes landfall in Newark, New Jersey, with 125MPH sustained winds at landfall. At it's peak intensity, the storm is a Category Five with 165MPH winds at two periods when it is north of Puerto Rico and the islands of the Caribbean and when it is east of the Bahamas.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Your numbers are a bit off. No way a 125 mph, 650 mile wide storm could go down to a TD in the time you showed. Check out the below storm.





It made landfall at NYC as a 85 mph cat one at point 38 on the map, it still had winds of 60 mph at point 41 on the map (as it lefted Northern Maine in other words). As I stated before storms tend to travel at an average of about 40 mph up here. There is little chance it couldn't make the trip across New England in less than 12 hours tops.

[Jim Cantore]

Only problem I see for track 4 is that storms tend to be "flying" up here. Bob for example was a cat 2 when it made landfall and it was still a 60 mph TS when the center was over my area later that day. Any typical storm hitting NYC as cat 5 would still be a cat 3 at the cat 1 position you show, or if it hit as a cat 4 would still be a cat 2; simply because it wouldn't have enough time to weaken that much at a forward speed of about 40 mph, or even higher.


PS: Other wise fantastic work

I figured by that time It would be rapidly becoming extratropical

[Jim Cantore]

IMO scenerio 4 seems quite unlikely if impossible

I screwed that one up a bit

[MiamiensisWx]

Oh... thanks for telling me on that, Hybridstorm_November2001. I think a made a mistake by winding down the intensity after landfall too quickly. Other than that, is it fairly realistic?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yup. Sorry if I came across as a bit of an ass LOL. Just I'm helping to do a study on this very subject right now (New England and Maritimes hurricanes). We have found thus far that they tend to loss roughly 40 mph of their sustained wind speed by the time one has crossed most of the region if it makes landfall say around Long Island/Cape Code area, and is moving at the usual high speed.

[Jim Cantore]

heres 3 more (a bit more realistic)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think a cat5 could move at 40 or more mph. It would form its own shear.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I tend to agree. I also doubt one could get up to NYC/Long Island and still be a 5 at landfall, but this is the Weather Channel’s idea not mine

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Map looks a lot better. In theory anyhow. Like I said I still think a cat. 5 in that area could not happen, though who can say for sure

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A cat5 moving at 40 mph wind shear its self apart. Remember the cape verde systems that move 20 mph westward.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Yup. For awhile Bertha in 1996 was moving to fast to really strengthen. It didn't take off until it reached the Bahamas, and slowed down. Still in these cases the storms tend to be mere embryos. Once a storm gets large and established. I do not think fast motion will harm it that much. Especially if it is moving in the same direction as the Upper level flow regime. Look at the great New England Hurricane, Hurricane Carol, and Hurricanes Edna and Gerda. All were still monsters when they got up here, and all were racing to the finish line as they say.

[Jim Cantore]

If you note in the NYC storm it struggles early on due to that

then it slows and bombs