SE Indian Ocean: TC Daryl

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like we got a upgrade from the JTWC on the NRL site.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

18/2033 UTC 16.2S 122.4E T2.0/2.0 94S

[P.K.]

Cat 2, 50kt sustained winds.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 13
Issued at 8:40 am WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Kuri Bay and De Grey. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas from
De Grey to Onslow, extending inland to include Tom Price.

At 8am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
140 kilometres north northwest of Derby and
215 kilometres north northeast of Broome and
is moving southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in coastal areas between
Kuri Bay and Broome today, and may extend south to Wallal later tonight. Heavy
rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to continue, especially in western
parts.

Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to continue to intensify during the next few
days as it moves to the southwest.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 5AM WST.
Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 16.1 South Longitude 122.6 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 980 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by midday WST Thursday 19 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga
including Broome should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Onslow should listen for the next
advice.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

----------------------------------------

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0031UTC 19 JANUARY 2006

HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Daryl was located within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude 16.1 south
Longitude 122.6 east
Recent movement: southwest 4 knots.
Maximum winds: 50 knots.
Central pressure: 980 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in
northern quadrants.


FORECAST
Within 40 nautical miles of the centre: winds increasing to 60 knots by 1200UTC
19 January and to 70 knots by 0000UTC 20 January with very rough to very high
seas and heavy swell.

Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in
northern quadrants: Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough
seas, moderate to heavy swell.

At 1200UTC 19 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 17.0 south 121.4 east
Central pressure 970 hPa.
Winds to 60 knots near centre.
At 0000UTC 20 January: Within 90 nautical miles of 17.9 south 120.4 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 70 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 0700UTC 19 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181951Z JAN 06//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 122.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 122.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.1S 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.6S 120.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.8S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 122.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08s (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM
WEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC08S IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GREATER STEERING
INFLUENCE IS PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL
TURN MORE POLEWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE PROVIDED BY A PASSING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 181951ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 182000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z AND 200300Z.//



JTWC'S FIRST ADVISORY.

[HURAKAN]

19/0233 UTC 15.9S 122.7E T2.5/2.5 94S -- South Indian Ocean


DVORAK CONFIRMS A CYCLONE OF TS INTENSITY!

[JonathanBelles]

am i correct in saying 35 kts = 64 mph

[senorpepr]

I've added JTWC and NRL links to reflect 08S.


http://tropicalupdate.storm2k.org/
http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/seio.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

35 knots=40 mph.

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 14
Issued at 11:35 am WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Kuri Bay and De Grey. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas from
De Grey to Onslow, extending inland to include Tom Price.

At 11am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
165 kilometres northwest of Derby and
190 kilometres north of Broome and
is moving southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.

Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in coastal areas between
Kuri Bay and Broome today, and may extend south to Wallal overnight or early
tomorrow. Heavy rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to continue, especially
in western parts.

Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to continue to intensify during tonight and
Friday as it moves to the southwest.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 11AM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.3 South Longitude 122.5 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 6 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 978 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 3PM WST Thursday 19 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Onslow should listen for the next
advice.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

Pressure down 2 mb, winds stay the same!

[P.K.]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 15
Issued at 2:45 pm WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Port Hedland. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal
areas from Port Hedland to Exmouth, extending inland to include Nanutarra and
Tom Price.

At 2pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
170 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
390 kilometres north northeast of Wallal and
is moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour over the past 12 hours.

Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in coastal areas between
Cockatoo Island and Broome for the remainder of today. Gales may extend south to
Wallal early Friday and to Port Hedland later on Friday. Heavy rainfall over
the Kimberley is expected to continue, especially in western parts.

Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to continue to intensify during tonight and
Friday as it moves to the southwest.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 2PM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.5 South Longitude 121.8 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 976 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 6PM WST Thursday 19 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Bidyadanga and Exmouth should listen for the
next advice.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

FLASH TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 16
Issued at 5:35 pm WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Port Hedland. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal
areas from Port Hedland to Exmouth, extending inland to include Nanutarra and
Tom Price.

At 5pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was relocated by radar and was about
40 kilometres west northwest of Beagle Bay and
130 kilometres north of Broome and
was moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected in the
Beagle Bay area for the next few hours, before gradually easing this evening.
Gales with gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in remaining coastal
areas between Cockatoo Island and Broome tonight. Gales may extend south to
Wallal and Port Hedland during Friday. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue in
parts of the Kimberley.

Tropical Cyclone Daryl is expected to continue to intensify during tonight and
Friday as it moves to the southwest.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Daryl at 5PM WST.
Location of centre : relocated to be within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.8 South Longitude 122.3 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 976 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 9PM WST Thursday 19 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and Exmouth should listen for
the next advice.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[P.K.]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 17
Issued at 8:55 pm WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Whim Creek. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal
areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth, extending inland to include Nanutarra and Tom
Price.

At 8pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
80 kilometres west northwest of Beagle Bay and
135 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
was moving west southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected in the
Beagle Bay area this evening, before gradually easing by morning. Gales with
gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in remaining coastal areas between
Cockatoo Island and Broome tonight.

Gales may extend south to Port Hedland later on Friday as tropical cyclone Daryl
moves to the southwest and steadily intensifies.

Details of tropical cyclone Daryl at 8PM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.8 South Longitude 121.9 East.
Recent movement : West southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 976 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by Midnight WST Thursday 19 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Kuri Bay and Cape Leveque
including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and Exmouth should listen for
the next advice.

[P.K.]

Times are GMT+8

[HURAKAN]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 18
Issued at 11:55 pm WST on Thursday, 19 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Whim Creek. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal
areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth, extending inland to include Nanutarra and Tom
Price.

At 11pm WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
105 kilometres west northwest of Beagle Bay and
150 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
was moving west at 12 kilometres per hour.

Destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected to
gradually ease in the Beagle Bay and Cygnet Bay areas. Gales with gusts to 110
kilometres an hour are possible in remaining coastal areas between Cockatoo
Island and Broome overnight.

Gales may extend south to Port Hedland later on Friday as tropical cyclone Daryl
moves to the southwest and steadily intensifies.

Details of tropical cyclone Daryl at 11PM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.7 South Longitude 121.7 East.
Recent movement : West at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 976 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 3AM WST Friday 20 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cockatoo Island and Cape
Leveque including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle
Bay should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and Exmouth should listen for
the next advice.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

It seems Daryl intensifying phase has ended for now.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 121.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 121.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.5S 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 18.3S 119.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.2S 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 20.1S 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 121.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAMPI SOUND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE CURRENT STEERING
FLOW IS RATHER WEAK, AS THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LARGE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT. NONETHELESS, TC 08S SHOULD CONTINUE
TO TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS IT REMAINS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STEERING RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTH AUSTRALIA. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED
DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND AND SUSTAINED MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z
AND 201500Z.



It seems Daryl will have a very similar path to the one Clare had a week ago. Flooding in Western Australia will be accentuated.

[JonathanBelles]

is that spot in australia a prime landfall spot?

[P.K.]

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 3:00 am WST on Friday, 20 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Whim Creek. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal
areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth, extending inland to include Nanutarra and Tom
Price.

At 2am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
125 kilometres west of Beagle Bay and
150 kilometres north northwest of Broome and
was moving west at 8 kilometres per hour.

The risk of destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour are expected
to gradually ease in the Beagle Bay and Cygnet Bay areas this morning. Gales
with gusts to 110 kilometres an hour are possible in coastal areas between
Cockatoo Island and Broome.

Gales may extend south to Port Hedland later today as tropical cyclone Daryl
moves to the southwest and steadily intensifies.

Details of tropical cyclone Daryl at 2AM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 16.8 South Longitude 121.5 East.
Recent movement : West at 8 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 975 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 130 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 6AM WST Friday 20 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cockatoo Island and Beagle
Bay including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and Bidyadanga,
excluding Derby but including Broome, should start taking precautions.
People in coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and Exmouth should listen for
the next advice.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[P.K.]

Pressure down to 970hPa, gusts up to 155km/hr.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 20
Issued at 5:55 am WST on Friday, 20 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE is now current for coastal areas
between Cockatoo Island and Mardie. A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas
from Mardie to Exmouth, extending to the inland Pilbara to include Nanutarra and
Tom Price.

At 5am WST TROPICAL CYCLONE DARYL was estimated to be
155 kilometres west northwest of Broome and
175 kilometres west of Beagle Bay and
was moving southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.

The risk of destructive winds with gusts to 130 kilometres per hour is expected
to ease in the Beagle Bay and Cygnet Bay areas this morning. Gales with gusts to
110 kilometres an hour are possible in coastal areas between Cockatoo Island and
Broome extending south to Port Hedland tonight and to Mardie tomorrow morning as
Daryl continues to move to the southwest.
Residents along the Pilbara coast are warned of the potential risk of very
destructive winds on Saturday if the cyclone intensifies as expected.

Details of tropical cyclone Daryl at 5AM WST.
Location of centre : within 40 kilometres of
Latitude 17.2 South Longitude 121.0 East.
Recent movement : Southwest at 12 kilometres per hour.
Central Pressure : 970 hPa.
Maximum wind gusts : 155 kilometres per hour.
Severity Category : 2.

The next warning will be issued by 9AM WST Friday 20 January.

The State Emergency Service advises of the following alerts:
YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cockatoo Island and Beagle
Bay including One Arm Point, Cape Leveque, Lombadina, Djarindjin and Beagle Bay
should take action in preparation for possible destructive wind gusts.
BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Cape Leveque and excluding
Derby but including Broome, Bidyadanga, Sandfire, Wallal, Pardoo, Port Hedland,
South Hedland, Whim Creek, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Karratha and
Dampier should start taking precautions.
People in coastal communities between Cockatoo Island and Exmouth and in the
inland Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

[Coredesat]

19/2033 UTC 16.9S 121.1E T3.0/3.0 DARYL

Dvorak up to T3.0 for Daryl.

[HURAKAN]

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (DARYL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.1S 121.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 121.0E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 18.3S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 19.5S 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 20.5S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 21.2S 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
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72 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 22.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 120.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S (DARYL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH STRENGTHENING
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A 191701Z TRMM PASS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS, TC 08S IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST LINE AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO LEARMONTH. THE
INTENSITY WILL INCREASE HOWEVER DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
IT WILL STRENGTHEN AT LESS THAN A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//








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