cold core but still noteworthy

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 6:26 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Their is a little twist just East of the Leeward Islands. I wonder if the GFS was picking up on this a few days ago.

#2 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:02 pm

Interesting. Thanks for the link.

mike815 · #3 Postby **mike815** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:06 pm

hmmm... yeah thanks for that ill keep an eye on it.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #4 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:08 pm

At 20 north/55 west. Lets see if it can develop some convection....

#5 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:20 pm

Well its lacking in deep convection but it is an interesting feature nonetheless. Its not impossible for this to become warm core but I would not bet $$ on it.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:27 pm

A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TO THE WEST CLOSER TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THE REFLECTION OF THIS UPPER LOW AS AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING
WESTWARD WILL INTERACT WITH THE MIGRATORY HIGHS MENTIONED ABOVE TO
PRODUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH MAY RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEED LOCALLY ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LOW REFLECTION OR INVERTED TROUGH SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SURGE IN THE MOISTURE...THUS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO AND OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

Interesting that the AFD of San Juan mentions this feature.We are expecting strong winds this weekend here in Puerto Rico because of the pressure gradient between the upper low and the strong high pressure in the western atlantic.

mike815 · #7 Postby **mike815** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:44 pm

very interesting cool something to watch at least maybe something will form after all.

#8 Postby **brunota2003** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:45 pm

hey, is that convection i see starting to develop??? uh oh...

#9 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 7:52 pm

wow 2 pop up disterbances in a week? in january?

Epsilon_Fan · #10 Postby **Epsilon_Fan** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 8:56 pm

hmmm, interesting.

A definite swirl in the clouds and some convection is popping up in the vicinity... it still looks fairly disorganized

mike815 · #11 Postby **mike815** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 9:04 pm

yeah but still its jan and were watching something this is just wow

ROCK · #12 Postby **ROCK** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 9:46 pm

anyone see a shear map lately? A blob to watch yes but I don't see it making its way to the surface IMO.

boca · #13 Postby **boca** » Wed Jan 18, 2006 9:50 pm

Its impressive just to see something out there especially at that lat and long in January.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jan 19, 2006 6:39 am

MID/UPPER LOW IS NEAR 16N56W MOVING W 5-10 KT PRODUCING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 52W-58W. OTHER
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND OVERCAST CLOUDS ARE S OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-58W. THE LOW HAS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION AS A TROUGH
ALONG ROUGHLY 10N50W 15N52W 18N57W 23N60W BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME ANY BETTER-DEFINED.

7 AM EST Discussion.Windy and scattered showers are going to the rule in the NE caribbean in the next couple of days.For sure a wind advisorie will be up here by friday especially in the higher elevations of Puerto Rico.

cold core but still noteworthy

cold core but still noteworthy

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