2006 Gray's abstract.

[OuterBanker]

I traveled so much last year during hurricane season I didn't really get to participate in many of the topics here. This year I will not be traveling as much so I will participate more. I digress, let me get to the subject of the post.

After reading his 2006 predictions I was floored by his numbers. Every single indicator is postive for a very active year. But what really got to me (maybe I'm obsessing a bit because of my lacation) were the years that he used a comparables (1961, 1967, 1996, 1999, 2003). Now 1961 and 67 are fine (most were fish) but 96, 99, and 03 brought Bertha, Fran, Dennis, Floyd, and Isabel. Of course I'm sure that the comparables are only for the conditions that were present, not the pattern. I just hope that local forcasters don't pick up on this. I can see them scaring away tourist away now.

[wxmann_91]

Now 1961 and 67 are fine (most were fish)

I'd want to disagree with that. 67 was the year of Beulah and 61 the year of Carla, Hattie, and Esther.

Most fishes, yes, but not fine. One significant hurricane making landfall is already one too many.

[JonathanBelles]

is it just me or ar dr. grays predictions normally low?

[Extremeweatherguy]

yes they seem to be over the last few years...but he gets the general "idea" right most of the time.

[Epsilon_Fan]

I'm sure nobody could have predicted what happened last season, thats for sure

[JonathanBelles]

true

[EDR1222]

It will be interesting to see how 2006 unfolds
based on his predictions and some of the years
he is drawing comparison to. Some of the
experts feel that the steering patterns that were
prevalant from the mid 90's through 2003 made a
flip flop during 2004. They say it is unlikely, though
not impossible, for the patterns to revert back to what
they were during those years anytime soon. But I suppose
2005 wasn't much like 2004 either with regards
to steering patterns, so I guess
we will find out soon enough in the coming years.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I will be in Florida (Merrit Island) for most of the summer so I am hoping to get a good glancing blow or two by a TS or weak hurricane during my time there. I do not want a serious storm though, because I do not want damage to my beachhouse, but some good 60-70mph gusts would be fun. Then, I am hoping for another hurricane in the fall when I return to Houston, but I pray that whatever happens that it is not paralyzingly damaging and that it does not take any lives just some good hurricane force gusts inland in spring which would make for some good film and good watching.

[Andrew92]

Seeing 1961, 1967, 1999, and 2003 as analogs, I can't help but think that Texas had better watch out in 2006:

1961 - Carla
1967 - Beulah
1999 - Bret (hits unpopulated area, but still was a C3)
2003 - Claudette (despite being "only" a C1)

-Andrew92

[Extremeweatherguy]

Seeing 1961, 1967, 1999, and 2003 as analogs, I can't help but think that Texas had better watch out in 2006:

1961 - Carla
1967 - Beulah
1999 - Bret (hits unpopulated area, but still was a C3)
2003 - Claudette (despite being "only" a C1)

-Andrew92

very good point. Carla was supposedly one of the worst to hit TX...so a repeat of that would be scary.

[Margie]

I'm sure nobody could have predicted what happened last season, thats for sure

Nobody did, apparently. The idea was that activity would go down from 2004.

A met I know says that he is thinking 2006 will have about the same amount of activity as 2004 (which was 15-8-6). My numbers for 2006, from early Dec, based only on climatology as I don't have any forecast experience, are 15-8-3. The Graycast from early Dec is 17-9-5.

I won't change my numbers unless any storms form before June 1st (I didn't count that in my guess).

[brunota2003]

but in '04 AND '05, the storms didnt form intell June, and we had a butt load in '05...

[Margie]

but in '04 AND '05, the storms didnt form intell June, and we had a butt load in '05...

No but the current pattern in the ATL hasn't changed that much and it is possible that we will see some early TC forming in the same way as Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta, prior to June. If we do, I will increase my 2006 prediction by that much.

[brunota2003]

i say 25/15/8 but many of those should be Cape Verde's...

[flashflood]

I will be in Florida (Merrit Island) for most of the summer so I am hoping to get a good glancing blow or two by a TS or weak hurricane during my time there. I do not want a serious storm though, because I do not want damage to my beachhouse, but some good 60-70mph gusts would be fun. Then, I am hoping for another hurricane in the fall when I return to Houston, but I pray that whatever happens that it is not paralyzingly damaging and that it does not take any lives just some good hurricane force gusts inland in spring which would make for some good film and good watching.

You may want to try and hope for the opposite. I have a house in Spring, as well as in FL too. I ended up missing two Hurricanes because I was in the opposite location. I was in FL when Rita was heading to TX, and I was in Spring when Wilma was heading to FL.

[Weatherfreak14]

Dr. Gray always seems to have low forcast. I guess its to make sure it aint too high.