Update of 2004+2005 map?

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Important note: I like to research hurricanes- It is mandatory for any
scientific research that you add statistical inference. That was my intention
when I made the post about x and standard deviations and normal curves.
But since the Atlantic works in cycles...this is very difficult to do and I just
can't figure it all out. I really just want to figure out what's going
on, but we humans lack enough weather data We have only
been keeping track of data since the mid-1800s, so it is
very difficult to analyze and come to conclusions regarding climate
shifts and cyclonic activity.

Last year I was advocating the anthropogenic global warming argument as a
major factor in storm intensification, but after reading many research papers
I realize that I really need to do more research and see more data before I can
make such conclusions.

[JonathanBelles]

and...

[WindRunner]

Important note: I like to research hurricanes- It is mandatory for any
scientific research that you add statistical inference. That was my intention
when I made the post about x and standard deviations and normal curves.
But since the Atlantic works in cycles...this is very difficult to do and I just
can't figure it all out. I really just want to figure out what's going
on, but we humans lack enough weather data We have only
been keeping track of data since the mid-1800s, so it is
very difficult to analyze and come to conclusions regarding climate
shifts and cyclonic activity.

Last year I was advocating the anthropogenic global warming argument as a
major factor in storm intensification, but after reading many research papers
I realize that I really need to do more research and see more data before I can
make such conclusions.

It was a pretty good inference from what I could see - now is that three std. dev. number approximated (what, through a hypothesis test?), or is there actually somewhere to get such data? If there was, that'd be great!

[wxmann_91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

[wxwatcher91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

[wxmann_91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Important note: I like to research hurricanes- It is mandatory for any
scientific research that you add statistical inference. That was my intention
when I made the post about x and standard deviations and normal curves.
But since the Atlantic works in cycles...this is very difficult to do and I just
can't figure it all out. I really just want to figure out what's going
on, but we humans lack enough weather data We have only
been keeping track of data since the mid-1800s, so it is
very difficult to analyze and come to conclusions regarding climate
shifts and cyclonic activity.

Last year I was advocating the anthropogenic global warming argument as a
major factor in storm intensification, but after reading many research papers
I realize that I really need to do more research and see more data before I can
make such conclusions.

It was a pretty good inference from what I could see - now is that three std. dev. number approximated (what, through a hypothesis test?), or is there actually somewhere to get such data? If there was, that'd be great!

I was just running a comparison to a normalized curve. Of course
my comparison is not fitting...but the 3 std. thing means less than
.3% chance that a given location gets a landfall

[Extremeweatherguy]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

lol. but i beat you this time! 16! OH WAIT! It is actually 31 now since there are 2 quote boxes in one!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

Just wondering how probability would stay constant. It is less during el
nino years and higher during years of strong bermuda highs and la nina...
so based on these and other conditions...shouldn't the probability change
over any difference in time given variability of weather conditions (troughs,
highs, locations and strengths of these and similar factors?)...

The probability should change from time to time but always remain very low...
but still vary within that range of very low based on meteorological factors,
IMO.

[wxmann_91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

16

I don't understand the bolded portion. IMHO a hurricane striking an area doesn't go up or down. It's a random event, completely independent. So yes the probablility of NYC getting hit vs. NOLA getting hit is different, but just because because NYC hasn't been hit doesn't mean it's probability of getting hit in 2006 will increase or decrease, and likewise, just because NOLA was hit in 2005 doesn't mean anything for the probability of it getting hit in 2006. And yes - good point about within 20 miles of a point instead of just a point.

Earthquakes are different because sometimes one leads to another... but most other disasters... the probability doesn't increase or decrease just because an event hasn't occurred for any # of years.

[wxmann_91]

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

Just wondering how probability would stay constant. It is less during el
nino years and higher during years of strong bermuda highs and la nina...
so based on these and other conditions...shouldn't the probability change
over any difference in time given variability of weather conditions (troughs,
highs, locations and strengths of these and similar factors?)...

The probability should change from time to time but always remain very low...
but still vary within that range of very low based on meteorological factors,
IMO.

Well yes, but what I meant is if all other factors are constant. Less hurricanes and/or a weak Bermuda High, those are all variables that will undoubtedly change the probability of any given area to be hit.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

Just wondering how probability would stay constant. It is less during el
nino years and higher during years of strong bermuda highs and la nina...
so based on these and other conditions...shouldn't the probability change
over any difference in time given variability of weather conditions (troughs,
highs, locations and strengths of these and similar factors?)...

The probability should change from time to time but always remain very low...
but still vary within that range of very low based on meteorological factors,
IMO.

Well yes, but what I meant is if all other factors are constant. Less hurricanes and/or a weak Bermuda High, those are all variables that will undoubtedly change the probability of any given area to be hit.

True...if all other factors
are constant, the probability of a place being hit will stay constant.

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

so much fun quoting

[wxmann_91]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

so much fun quoting

That's why there is a thread to it LOL - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80467

[JonathanBelles]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

so much fun quoting

That's why there is a thread to it LOL - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80467

thans funny

[Ivanhater]

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

now it's 15...lol...soon each comment using these quotes will take up a full page.

So no part of the basin has been unscathed in the last 2 years.

Ha! Not true! Sarasota, FL remains unscathed. For over 100 plus years now we haven't had a direct hit.

Of course, would I want to wager on us escaping this year? Uh, no.

With the exception of tropical storms and
category 1 hurricane conditions, Tampa Bay is relatively unscathed.
There's probability for you...last time a major direct hit took
place was 1921, and before that 1848. Hopefully our luck
won't run out...it would not surprise me either way though
given the extensive number and gradient conditions of variables
that determine the paths of cyclonic systems.

The chance of a direct hit from a major is x%, and depending
on a series of variables x is calculated. But I know of
no way to calculate x, except that x is a very small number,
likely less than 10.

If I attempt to determine this analytically through statistical theory, the
chance of x <10 is greater than 99.7%...you must consider
a range outside of three standard deviations about some
center value- based off a normal curve- but hurricanes
do not follow "normalized" curves...historical data base
comparative analysis illustrates a cyclical nature...
so in short- it is exceedingly complicated and arduous
to determine x.

well folks i need to get some sleep lol

HUH

Yeah I agree there...HUH is right.

ya lost me

Sorry- My brain was fried from studying for an AP Statistics
Test and I sort of mixed and jumbled it up.

But it's a great application of statistics to hurricanes.

I was really high when I wrote that.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA....MUWWAAHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAHA!!!!

ok....

wow...

that box is gonna get really big

I think I'll add one more quote box thingy.
I want to dedicate this post to Hurricane Opal of 1995.

lol

What's the record for # of quotes? 14 now.

OK fine, I'll add some scientific theory into this quote. If you flip a coin 100 times, and every time it has landed on heads, what is the chance of landing tails the next time. Still 50-50. Sure, the law of averages does even out, but it doesn't matter. For any given location/city, the probablility of a hurricane severly impacting that location remains constant, whether it has been hit the previous year or it hasn't been hit 100,000 years. You can't predict when that law of averages starts evening out. It could be 100 years later, or it could be tomorrow.

Some food for thought that you can comment on with additional Quote Boxes.

yeah thats true. so then think about though the probability of a hurricane striking an exact point TECHNIQUELY is 1 over infinitely because there is an infinite number of points to chose from. so then the best bet is to figure the probability of a hurricane striking within 20 miles of a point or something of that sort.
oh and also the probability of a hurricane striking a location changes as years pass because the probability of a storm striking a location is determined by how many times it has been struck in a particular amount of time. so the probability of a storm stiking a location actually GOES DOWN as years pass without any hurricanes.

yay 15 now

LOL you two posted at the same time. A race of quotes...

so much fun quoting

That's why there is a thread to it LOL - http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=80467

thans funny

[whereverwx]

wow, this is getting off topic

[JonathanBelles]

wow, this is getting off topic

no duh