Possible Subtropical Developement in Caribbean?!

[KatDaddy]

From the HPD Disc:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MDL FORM A SUBTROPICAL/
TROPICAL LOW NR THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY TO MID PD AS A CLOSED
CYCLONE DVLPS AT THE BASE OF A DEPARTING UPR TROUGH. THE UKMET AND
GFS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN... BUT ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM-CORE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATL IS QUITE SUMMERLIKE... CLOSER TO JUNE
THAN JAN. WHILE THE CAN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DVLPG TOO MANY TROP
CYCS...ANALOGS FOR THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD ARE INTRIGUING.
THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH CORRELATION IN THE ANTICIPATED D+8 UPR
PATTERN TO MID JAN 1951...MID-LATE JAN 1989...AND EARLY FEB 1999
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. A TROP CYC HAS BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE
HRCN REANALYSIS PROJECT FOR INCLUSION INTO THE DATABASE WHICH
DVLPD NE OF PUERTO RICO IN EARLY JAN 1951 WHILE A COUPLE FEEBLER
ATTEMPTS AT SUBTROP CYCGNS OCCURRED IN LATE JAN AND FEB THAT YEAR.
MORE RECENTLY IN MID-FEB 1989...THERE WAS A STRONG ATTEMPT AT
SUBTROPICAL CYCGNS NR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE THE SYS SHEARED
OUT AND MOVED SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE ATL
SUBTROPICS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SINCE NOVEMBER...THIS PSBL DVLPMT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. FOR NOW...AM HANDLING THIS WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND A SPOT LOW EARLY IN THE PD...WHICH RETROGRADES INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEK.

[cjrciadt]

From the HPD Disc:

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE CANADIAN MDL FORM A SUBTROPICAL/
TROPICAL LOW NR THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY TO MID PD AS A CLOSED
CYCLONE DVLPS AT THE BASE OF A DEPARTING UPR TROUGH. THE UKMET AND
GFS LOWER PRESSURES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN... BUT ARE NOT AS
ENTHUSIASTIC. THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM-CORE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATL IS QUITE SUMMERLIKE... CLOSER TO JUNE
THAN JAN. WHILE THE CAN HAS HAD A HISTORY OF DVLPG TOO MANY TROP
CYCS...ANALOGS FOR THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PD ARE INTRIGUING.
THERE HAS BEEN A HIGH CORRELATION IN THE ANTICIPATED D+8 UPR
PATTERN TO MID JAN 1951...MID-LATE JAN 1989...AND EARLY FEB 1999
FOR THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. A TROP CYC HAS BEEN SUBMITTED TO THE
HRCN REANALYSIS PROJECT FOR INCLUSION INTO THE DATABASE WHICH
DVLPD NE OF PUERTO RICO IN EARLY JAN 1951 WHILE A COUPLE FEEBLER
ATTEMPTS AT SUBTROP CYCGNS OCCURRED IN LATE JAN AND FEB THAT YEAR.
MORE RECENTLY IN MID-FEB 1989...THERE WAS A STRONG ATTEMPT AT
SUBTROPICAL CYCGNS NR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE THE SYS SHEARED
OUT AND MOVED SOUTH OF THE BAHAMAS. CONSIDERING HOW THE ATL
SUBTROPICS HAVE BEEN BEHAVING SINCE NOVEMBER...THIS PSBL DVLPMT IS
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. FOR NOW...AM HANDLING THIS WITH A SFC
TROUGH AND A SPOT LOW EARLY IN THE PD...WHICH RETROGRADES INTO THE
WRN CARIBBEAN BY NEXT WEEK.

What The!!!

[jasons2k]

That is very interesting. At this point, nothing would surprise me.

[JonathanBelles]

hmm

[Opal storm]

Never thought we would be talking about possible tropical development in the Caribbean in the middle of January!

[Opal storm]

[mike815]

huh?!!!! what the heck are they serious that sure would be something subtropical storm alberto

[JonathanBelles]

what r the coordinates?

[TheEuropean]

That would be crazy, but an very early start of a furios season?

[WindRunner]

Why am I not surprsied?

[mike815]

lol i know it shouldnt be a suprise i guess

[wxcrazytwo]

[southerngale]

THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM-CORE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE ATL IS QUITE SUMMERLIKE... CLOSER TO JUNE
THAN JAN.

Good heavens!

[CHRISTY]

wow......unreal but at the same time it would not surprise me at all because i think 2006 is going to be one hell of a season...

[JonathanBelles]

what r the coordinates?

[TheEuropean]

wow......unreal but at the same time it would not surprise me at all because i think 2006 is going to be one hell of a season...

It is quit possible that activity in 2006 will be near 2005:

http://portale.web.de/Schlagzeilen/msg/6039383/
(Dec., 29th 2005, in german)

[Ivanhater]

[JonathanBelles]

wow......unreal but at the same time it would not surprise me at all because i think 2006 is going to be one hell of a season...

It is quit possible that activity in 2006 will be near 2005:

http://portale.web.de/Schlagzeilen/msg/6039383/
(Dec., 29th 2005, in german)

i need a translator

[P.K.]

Here is a translation of that article.

Experts expect again bad hurricane season for 2006

In the year 2005 there were so many tropical storms that the alphabet for the designation was not sufficient any longer and had to the Greek alphabet to be changed over: Tropical storm Epsilon at the beginning of of Decembers.
Bochum - 2006 could be approaching according to estimate of Meteoroligists just as bad hurricane season as 2005. Already for ten years persist the phase with ever more and ever heavier storms on the North Atlantic, said hurricane expert Thomas Saevert of the weather service Meteomedia on Thursday of the dpa.

The strong hurricane activity can stop 20 to 30 years. Also the Kieler climatic researcher Mojib Latif as well as scientists in the USA and Great Britain forecast an again strong hurricane year.

"already the year 2005 exceeded, said almost all past weather records" Saevert retrospectively. Record also for the insurance: According to data of the rueckversicherers Munich back 2005 became the most expensive natural catastrophe year since it insurance give. More than 100 ,000 humans died. The economical damage amounted to more than 200 billion US dollar. To it the hurricane "Katrina" has alone a portion of 125 billion dollar. Damage at a value of 75 billion dollar developed for the world-wide insurance economy.

According to estimate by Saevert 2006 are to be counted on 17 to 20 tropical storms - of it 10 to 13 of hurricane - on the Atlantic. Five to sieved of it could reach wind velocities of 185 kilometers per hour. Since beginning of the recordings before approximately 100 years annually only ten storms were observed on the average, of it six of hurricane. Thus could belong 2006 to the five strongest hurricane years since beginning of recording. "something similar bad consequences as 2005 cannot be excluded."

In the USA a team is occupied around Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray with forecasts for the hurricane season coming in each case for several years at the university in Colorado. For 2006 the experts in a first publication expect about 17 tropical storms, of it nine of hurricane and among them again five strong of hurricane. The prognosis of a group of scientists in London looks similar.

The climatic researcher Mojib Latif of Leibnizinstitut for sea sciences at the University of Kiel made the global heating up responsible in an interview of the radio agency dpa/Rufa also for the increase the hurricane. "with it both intensity and frequency is meant", described Latif.

In the season 2005 altogether 26 tropical storms formed, of it for 14 of hurricane. The past records from the years 1933 with 21 storms and 1969 with twelve of hurricane were exceeded clearly. By the series of the eddy towers the residents of Munich back according to own data substantially more strongly met than first one accepted.

The enterprise - world-wide largest insurance of the insurance - saved and wants its profit goal owing to participation sales the dividend strongly to raise. The hurricane season led to billion-loads, yet one holds to the goal of a yield on equity from twelve per cent to taxes for this year, communicated the enterprise. The risen year's result is to be used to an increase of dividend around 1,10 euro on 3,10 euro. The focused yield on equity corresponded last to a profit goal of 2.6 billion euro for this year.

[mike815]

wow interesting article thanks for the translation i cnt believe it june like? unbielivable. But of course this shouldnt be supriseing with what is going on the past few years.