Is this year setting up like last?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

The Loop Current looks healthy...

[mike815]

water temps arnt everything Epsilon showed us that.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The real change is from 35 to 60 west. The SST's are around 2 to 3 degrees colder. The LOOP current looks to be some what stronger. Also near the Cape verdes might be a little warmer about a degree.


La nina is going to help kill shear across the Eastern/Central Atlatnic. But the cooler water is going to slow down development. So waves are still going to get more west then normal. The Caribbean maybe 1/2 a degree cooler in the big thing like wxman said will be the pressure. That loop will tell if we get Katrina's,Rita like storms.

[mike815]

thanks for that analysis so your saying weaker storms because waters will be cooler maybe sst will go up more like 2005

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm saying cooler sst's, but on the other hand La nina. Which means lighter shear over the central to eastern Ataltnic. In the end of the day these waves like last year will develop in the Caribbean,Western Atlatnic,Gulf.

The change is even so the central Atlantic is cooler...With lighter shear cyclones will still be able to develop this year out there. So we will get long trackers but they will be fairly weak systems intill 50 or 60 west. The caribbean looks near what it was. Also the Western Atlantic maybe even slightly warmer north of Cuba. So expect a active season.

What amazes me is that loop current in the gulf. Its like twice as big as it was last year. In 2 to 3 degrees warmer. Thats going to be interesting.

[mike815]

ok thanks yeah i noticed that too very interesting

[JamesFromMaine2]

I'm saying cooler sst's, but on the other hand La nina. Which means lighter shear over the central to eastern Ataltnic. In the end of the day these waves like last year will develop in the Caribbean,Western Atlatnic,Gulf.

The change is even so the central Atlantic is cooler...With lighter shear cyclones will still be able to develop this year out there. So we will get long trackers but they will be fairly weak systems intill 50 or 60 west. The caribbean looks near what it was. Also the Western Atlantic maybe even slightly warmer north of Cuba. So expect a active season.

What amazes me is that loop current in the gulf. Its like twice as big as it was last year. In 2 to 3 degrees warmer. Thats going to be interesting.

If you ask me its way to early to tell what the SSTs will be once we get to the heart of Hurricane season! Between Nov. and Dec. the SSTAs increased .20C atleast! Theres still a few months before hurricane season and alot can change either way!

[milankovitch]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /cfs_fcst/



Found this site that models future SSTs

[boca]

let's see how things pan out.

[mike815]

yeah but that will change i think who knows in a few much that is very interesting though warmer waters dont mean everything other pieces of the puzzle are not yet know yet

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting... the SST model above shows warmer waters in areas of Pacific, including slightly warmer waters along the equatorial Pacific. Time and more information will tell, however.

[mike815]

yeah so that will certintly change keep watching it though

[MiamiensisWx]

The SST model seems to show a warming trend of the Pacific forecasted, beginning in around April. Very interesting... this may be important later on.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

If that model is right in fact the Eastern Pacific warms up. While the Atlatnic cools off some....I think the season could turn out with less then 16 storms for 2006. But that loop current is looking powerful. So if any storm gets in there then its going to go boom.

[mike815]

hmmmm i dont think so but an interesting thought sea temps arnt everything

[CHRISTY]

[img]Yes I see that. Actually there are 2 groups of disturbed weather down there between Venezuela & Africa right now. But the shear just to the east of them will stop both of them dead in their tracks. Doesn't June (even May) make you a little nervous. I really can't imagine what this year is going to bring. I was a quite relieved to see the dust from the dust storms in Africa inhibiting tropical development for the last hurricane season. It killed the Cape Verde Season. But not really when you think about it. The dust in the atmosphere didn't kill the lows, it just kept the lows coming off Africa from developing that far out. [/img]

[mike815]

yes but the main thing also was the atlantic trough that killed these waves off and the ones that survives developed into monsters over here.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

It is all about patterns. January is still way too early to tell if it is setting up like last year or not. While the SST map does look similar, it can drastically change from last year in the next 5 months. Do not be fooled.

Also, La Nina conditions and Neutral conditions provide approximately the same amount of activity on average, with La Nina actually being slightly less in the hurricane/major hurricane column. I don't know how many times I, senor, or others have to say that.

[JamesFromMaine2]

It is all about patterns. January is still way too early to tell if it is setting up like last year or not. While the SST map does look similar, it can drastically change from last year in the next 5 months. Do not be fooled.

Also, La Nina conditions and Neutral conditions provide approximately the same amount of activity on average, with La Nina actually being slightly less in the hurricane/major hurricane column. I don't know how many times I, senor, or others have to say that.

even so it doesn't hurt for us to start talking/watching it now this early!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Yes, but there is no reason for certain people to be looking at this data and screaming armageddon, which scares people half to death. Speculation is good, but saying it WILL happen is not. Just keep that in mind.