Any signs of a pattern change?

[Extremeweatherguy]

My sentiments as well. We might have to coldest outbreak of the winter still ahead of us but nothing extreme or record-breaking.

That's just my point. I remember posts here saying there would be a massive cold outbreak comparable to 1985 or 1989. What a bunch of nonsense that turned out to be...

I do not think that we will see an outbreak comparable to Dec. 1989 when we hit 7...but rather Feb. 1989 (the previous winter)..which was still cold (4 back to back days below 32..but we never got below 20). Plus, the difference between those last posts and this current issue is that it was never quite as cold in Alaska and Canada during those threats.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAO is expected to stay neutral through the end of the month, so I wouldn't look for anything other than brief cold snaps between now and then.

and with La Nina here, don't get your hopes up. Our winters usually suck during these years... like they haven't sucked enough in the last 3-4.

actually the NAO is forecast to go negative by the end of the month. Also, cold air is spilling into Alaska and temps. up that way are becoming below normal. Looks like a good threat of some bitter cold by late in the month and into February. In fact, Feb. looks like it may be very cold.

It keeps getting pushed back later and later...

well this time the cold air IS actually spilling into Alaska, and the poles have warmed (which actually means that it will get colder for us...see some of the other threads for more on this). The ensembles show a negative NAO and a negative AO in 15 days or less. Even Air Force Met is beginning to say that a colder pattern is Possible around the end of January and the beginning of February. He even said that it may resemble Feb. 1989...which hosted a nice arctic outbreak capable of 4 days of sub-freezing highs here in Houston. Winter is not over yet...and this is not just my opinion...but the opinion of many others as well as many pro mets I have either read posts from, or have accessed articles/posts from others sights from. No surprise here, but JB is also predicting a colder pattern. We are not even half way done with winter, so spring is in no way starting yet.

Actually, winter is over 1/2 done for Houston depsite the "Official" start date being Dec. 21st. That's just a date on a calendar. From purely a meteo. standpoint, the 3 coldest months of the year are Dec/Jan/Feb. The curve bottoms out in Houston the 1st 2 weeks of January and from here on out the averages begin to rise. The first full degree rise occurs 1/21 when the avg. high rises from 62 to 63. The average date of our last freeze is Feb. 25th - almost a full month before the "official" end of winter. So take using the solstice/equinox method to define the seasons with a grain of salt....they are really behind 3-4 weeks of what the weather is actually doing in most cases. Heck - even west Texas has their summer peaks in JUNE, right at the start of summer, and most places peak in July, right at the true heart of summer. Using the solstice method, you would expect summer to peak in late August but that's just not the case.

PS - even your pal JB agrees with me on this one. He has said in his column many times over the years the seasons would more accurately reflect the weather if they were broken into 3 calendar months (e.g., Winter = Dec/Jan/Feb; Spring = Mar/Apr/May, etc.) rather than the solstice/equinox system we blindly accept today.

yeah, but what does that have to do with the coldest air coming in 2-3 weeks possibly? Just because you claim that winter is 1/2 over is not helping the fact that we may be downright cold by the start of February. Also, in an above post of yours, you say that nothing extreme or record breaking is coming...How do you know? We are not close enough yet to make a statement on that either way. The cold air is spilling into Alaska and all it will take for us to see some record lows or record low highs would be for that air to be sent southward into Texas...which is a real possibility. Also, though the last official freeze usually occurs on Feb. 25th...that is really just an average. We've had a freeze at IAH as late as April 13th, And we have been as low as 19-22 in March before as well (officially the coldest at IAH is 22..but Hooks has seen 20). The largest snowfalls usually occur during the last weeks of winter here in Houston...in 1895 we had a 2-3 ft. blizzard...and in 1899 we had extreme cold, enough to freeze over parts of Galveston bay! Winter is by no means done with, and in fact, I think the worst is yet to come. If AFM is right about his Feb. 1989 prediction, then we could be talking about some of the coldest air in years...and that kind of situation WOULD BE extreme and record breaking.

Well of course any of those things could happen. I watched it snow on Easter day last year in DFW after a relatively mild winter. That's also why I said in response to Brent we still may yet have our coldest readings of the season. And yes this outbreak in a few weeks might be the one. But I don't see anything on the horizon or a setup that will bring us doom&gloom, miserable, record-breaking cold.

You have to remember a lot of these extreme events you keep referencing happen only once every 20, 50, or 100+ years. Purely from a statistical standpoint the odds of something like that happening are pretty darn slim. If you keep thinking every 2 or 3 weeks something like that is going to happen, you're going to be wrong most of the time. Sorry, but that's the truth. It would take something very unusual to happen, for example, for a repeat of last year's TX snowstorm so soon.

If I see -50F in Alaska AND a McFarland Block AND the polar vortex diving south, etc,. then I might be worried. But not yet...just because it hit -40 in Alaska doesn't mean Galveston Bay is about the freeze over.

I never said that Galveston bay would freeze over or that we would see a 100-yr. cold event...all I was pointing out was that just because winter is 1/2 over, that does not mean that record breaking or extreme cold is not coming. As for 1989...most think of December when Houston hit 7. That does not look likely to play out...but the events of Feb. 1989 look like they could be a possibility. We never hit 7 during that cold snap, but we did stay below 32 for 4 days and we did get a trace of snow. I am not saying that we will see a repeat of last christmas for the Texas coast, but I do see a little snow and a lot of cold a real possibility soon. And by record breaking, all it takes is for one record low to be set for that to occur...so really anytime a new record is set...it is "record breaking". I do not think that we will set an all-time record low or an all-time record cold high...but a few daily record lows / record-cold highs may break is all I am saying. Also, temps. in Alaska were actually as cold as -45 this morning, and they look like they could continue to drop before being sent southward in about 2 weeks. The coldest air of the season or in years is a real possibility, because remember, the last many years have not been too terribly cold, so the coldest air in years would not be too hard to achieve.

[jasons2k]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

People move down south for a reason - I prefer to keep it that way.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

[jasons2k]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

Well thanks for the clarification because on the previous page you sound an awful lot like you were predicting the same scenario, and in other threads you have stated you indeed wanted (actually "hoped") for the extreme cold to head this way.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

Well thanks for the clarification because on the previous page you sound an awful lot like you were predicting the same scenario, and in other threads you have stated you indeed wanted (actually "hoped") for the extreme cold to head this way.

Well I do hope for some cold weather just not a 7 degree 1989 freeze or anything THAT extreme. As for my official prediction on how cold it will get (as of now) I think we will see AT LEAST one high below 40 and one low below 27 by Feb. 5th. Now in the worst case scenario we could see multiple days that fall into that range, but I will not start predicting that kind of event until we get closer, but I will say that it is certaintly a possibility. I also think it would be nice to see some snow before the winter is through, but whether or not that will occur is still in question. If we go by climate probability I would have to say that it is highly unlikely, but if we go by the evolving pattern I would say that it is possible. Really we just need to watch how the next two weeks play out. If Alaska continues to get cold and if the pattern sets up to allow that cold to head straight for Texas, then that's when I might have to start predicting an extended freeze for SE Texas.

[jasons2k]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

Well thanks for the clarification because on the previous page you sound an awful lot like you were predicting the same scenario, and in other threads you have stated you indeed wanted (actually "hoped") for the extreme cold to head this way.

Well I do hope for some cold weather just not a 7 degree 1989 freeze or anything THAT extreme. As for my official prediction on how cold it will get (as of now) I think we will see AT LEAST one high below 40 and one low below 27 by Feb. 5th. Now in the worst case scenario we could see multiple days that fall into that range, but I will not start predicting that kind of event until we get closer, but I will say that it is certaintly a possibility. I also think it would be nice to see some snow before the winter is through, but whether or not that will occur is still in question. If we go by climate probability I would have to say that it is highly unlikely, but if we go by the evolving pattern I would say that it is possible. Really we just need to watch how the next two weeks play out. If Alaska continues to get cold and if the pattern sets up to allow that cold to head straight for Texas, then that's when I might have to start predicting an extended freeze for SE Texas.

OK, now you sound almost like JB himself. You toss out all these extreme and wild "possibilities", so that maybe just maybe a few weeks from now you can say "I told you so" but when pressed, you forecast something that during the last 2 weeks of January or the first week of February is nothing too unusual.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

Well thanks for the clarification because on the previous page you sound an awful lot like you were predicting the same scenario, and in other threads you have stated you indeed wanted (actually "hoped") for the extreme cold to head this way.

Well I do hope for some cold weather just not a 7 degree 1989 freeze or anything THAT extreme. As for my official prediction on how cold it will get (as of now) I think we will see AT LEAST one high below 40 and one low below 27 by Feb. 5th. Now in the worst case scenario we could see multiple days that fall into that range, but I will not start predicting that kind of event until we get closer, but I will say that it is certaintly a possibility. I also think it would be nice to see some snow before the winter is through, but whether or not that will occur is still in question. If we go by climate probability I would have to say that it is highly unlikely, but if we go by the evolving pattern I would say that it is possible. Really we just need to watch how the next two weeks play out. If Alaska continues to get cold and if the pattern sets up to allow that cold to head straight for Texas, then that's when I might have to start predicting an extended freeze for SE Texas.

OK, now you sound almost like JB himself. You toss out all these extreme and wild "possibilities", so that maybe just maybe a few weeks from now you can say "I told you so" but when pressed, you forecast something that during the last 2 weeks of January or the first week of February is nothing too unusual.

well JB is not always wrong you know. Also, it is not just me who sees the "possibility" of a major cold snap late in the month, there are many people that I have also heard predict this same type of scenario. Also, this scenario is not all that extreme. Just because it doesn't normally happen doesn't mean that it won't happen this winter. I am not saying that this WILL happen, I just think that there is an increased threat and that we should be ready if it does happen. In all truthfulness I can't wait until winter is over so that we can get into severe weather season and hurricane season, but it looks like we still will have a couple of months to wait as the pattern will be changing.

[Tyler]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

Well yes, I do not think we will see an exact repeat, but a very similar scenario looks very possible. May be something like 4 consecutive days below 40. I still think that WORST case though would be 4 consecutive days below 32. Looking at the latest models Alaska is REALLY going to cool down. Also...I am not *wishing* this to happen...I am only pointing out the facts and showing you what could happen.

Well thanks for the clarification because on the previous page you sound an awful lot like you were predicting the same scenario, and in other threads you have stated you indeed wanted (actually "hoped") for the extreme cold to head this way.

Well I do hope for some cold weather just not a 7 degree 1989 freeze or anything THAT extreme. As for my official prediction on how cold it will get (as of now) I think we will see AT LEAST one high below 40 and one low below 27 by Feb. 5th. Now in the worst case scenario we could see multiple days that fall into that range, but I will not start predicting that kind of event until we get closer, but I will say that it is certaintly a possibility. I also think it would be nice to see some snow before the winter is through, but whether or not that will occur is still in question. If we go by climate probability I would have to say that it is highly unlikely, but if we go by the evolving pattern I would say that it is possible. Really we just need to watch how the next two weeks play out. If Alaska continues to get cold and if the pattern sets up to allow that cold to head straight for Texas, then that's when I might have to start predicting an extended freeze for SE Texas.

OK, now you sound almost like JB himself. You toss out all these extreme and wild "possibilities", so that maybe just maybe a few weeks from now you can say "I told you so" but when pressed, you forecast something that during the last 2 weeks of January or the first week of February is nothing too unusual.

Its not like extremeweatherguy is forecasting anything. He's simply pointing out possibilities. It is possible sometime in February we could see a pretty cold outbreak. The long range on the ECMWF is looking encouraging for a return to colder weather begining late Jan. The current northern Europe ridge will start to break down, the polar vortex will FINALLY leave Greenland into a more favorable position, and hopefully a +PNA/-NAO can setup. Also, Alaska will fill up with some very cold air. It will be a gradual process to turn this ugly pattern into a favorable pattern for colder weather.

[Tyler]

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

Well for one thing, it would kill off almost all mosquitos around here, leading to lesser amounts for summer!

[mike815]

hmmm i guess

[Air Force Met]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

People move down south for a reason - I prefer to keep it that way.

I doubt this will be as cold as the Feb '89 as well...but...if the air pools and isn't tapped...it could be a similiar situation. What made Feb '89 unique was the size of the high. It sank over the area. The air wasn't as cold as other times...but because of the SW flow aloft...it kept it cold because we didn't get any solar insolation for those days....so we didn't warm up. We ended up with 4 days of overrunning that kept the temps cold rather than 4 days of 1983 bone chilling arctic air cold.

Also...in Feb '89...the air pattern wasn't that conducive to send the arctic air southward...but the high was so massive it just came down anyway.

So...we need to watch the temps in Alaska and any sign of building pressures in the yukon area.

[mike815]

yup big bunch of noncence

[Tyler]

yup big bunch of noncence

Your starting to get very annoying...

[Extremeweatherguy]

yup big bunch of noncence

Your starting to get very annoying...

Yeah. I don't really understand his comments or who they are directed towards. what is a bunch of nonsense? AFM's post? My post? Tyler's post? Someone else's post? mike815 you need to be a little clearer with your comments.

[Tyler]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

People move down south for a reason - I prefer to keep it that way.

I doubt this will be as cold as the Feb '89 as well...but...if the air pools and isn't tapped...it could be a similiar situation. What made Feb '89 unique was the size of the high. It sank over the area. The air wasn't as cold as other times...but because of the SW flow aloft...it kept it cold because we didn't get any solar insolation for those days....so we didn't warm up. We ended up with 4 days of overrunning that kept the temps cold rather than 4 days of 1983 bone chilling arctic air cold.

Also...in Feb '89...the air pattern wasn't that conducive to send the arctic air southward...but the high was so massive it just came down anyway.

So...we need to watch the temps in Alaska and any sign of building pressures in the yukon area.

Hmmm... thats interesting information. IAH has not been below 28 degrees since March 4th, 2002 (22 degrees). Since then, we haven't had any good shots of arctic air at all. I think anything that could send us down into the mid 20's will be a shocker in this area. I think in the upcoming pattern we have a shot of that happening. One thing is for sure, Alaska will be developing some very cold air in the coming days. We'll need to keep an eye out to see where it ends up heading...

[Tyler]

yup big bunch of noncence

Your starting to get very annoying...

Yeah. I don't really understand his comments or who they are directed towards. what is a bunch of nonsense? AFM's post? My post? Tyler's post? Someone else's post? mike815 you need to be a little clearer with your comments.

Yes, if he would back up his comments and maybe direct them towards something or someone, things would be different...

[Extremeweatherguy]

I would be very, very, very surprised if we came anything close to 4 consecutive days below freezing. Regardless of absolute lows, that's about as extreme as it gets for Houston.

And FWIW I can't for the life of me see why anyone would actually WANT something like that to happen. Dead plants aside (and boy there would be plenty) that's just plain miserable. Brrrrr. Yuck. Take a ski trip but don't wish such awful - and I do mean awful - bone-chilling cold for this normally mild city.

People move down south for a reason - I prefer to keep it that way.

I doubt this will be as cold as the Feb '89 as well...but...if the air pools and isn't tapped...it could be a similiar situation. What made Feb '89 unique was the size of the high. It sank over the area. The air wasn't as cold as other times...but because of the SW flow aloft...it kept it cold because we didn't get any solar insolation for those days....so we didn't warm up. We ended up with 4 days of overrunning that kept the temps cold rather than 4 days of 1983 bone chilling arctic air cold.

Also...in Feb '89...the air pattern wasn't that conducive to send the arctic air southward...but the high was so massive it just came down anyway.

So...we need to watch the temps in Alaska and any sign of building pressures in the yukon area.

Hmmm... thats interesting information. IAH has not been below 28 degrees since March 4th, 2002 (22 degrees). Since then, we haven't had any good shots of arctic air at all. I think anything that could send us down into the mid 20's will be a shocker in this area. I think in the upcoming pattern we have a shot of that happening. One thing is for sure, Alaska will be developing some very cold air in the coming days. We'll need to keep an eye out to see where it ends up heading...

I actually have had 27 in my backyard this winter in Spring (and Hooks airport in Tomball has also hit 27), but yes officially at IAH they have not seen below 28 since 2002. I think we will have a chance to break this spell though...the first will be next Tuesday night, but the best chance will be late this month into early February. Like you said, watching Alaska will be the key. If we see some arctic air heading our way then we may end up getting very cold, very fast. The next 5-15 days will be interesting to say the least.

[Tyler]

I actually have had 27 in my backyard this winter in Spring (and Hooks airport in Tomball has also hit 27), but yes officially at IAH they have not seen below 28 since 2002. I think we will have a chance to break this spell though...the first will be next Tuesday night, but the best chance will be late this month into early February. Like you said, watching Alaska will be the key. If we see some arctic air heading our way then we may end up getting very cold, very fast. The next 5-15 days will be interesting to say the least.

Ya, I've actually had 27 degrees this winter as well. Readings here in Kingwood are usually 3 to 5 degrees cooler than the airport.

[mike815]

32 here for one hr lol