Is this year setting up like last?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is the Atlatnic setting up near last year...Like are the SST's near what they where at this time last year. In other things...


We need to keep track if it...

[mike815]

looks like their even higher in some places because winter really hasnt taken hold. its definetly something to watch.

[brunota2003]

Yesterday's SST map, 060113:

Last Year's SST Map, Same Time, 050113:

[mike815]

hmmm... so similar

[Scorpion]

Wow, last year was much warmer. However, we need to see how the comparison is around May.

[wxman57]

SSTs were only a small part of the reason for the tremendous activity in 2005. A major player from early on was the unusually low pressure across the central to NW Caribbean. I"ve heard it described as being similar to the monsoonal trof in the western Pacific. It provided an extra focus for development fom June through November.

So one big quesiton is whether the pressure in the Caribbean Sea will remain as low as it was last season. Will the Bermuda High ridge farther southwest and west and increase the shear a little bit down there? Too early to tell.

[mike815]

yup way to early but still sst about the same

[HURAKAN]

Not good, not good.

[CHRISTY]

looks to me like 06 is setting up to look almost like O5!I really cant imagine another season like 05 happening again but something tells me 05 was only the begining of things to come...I HOPE IAM WRONG!but its just my gut feeling.

[MiamiensisWx]

looks to me like 06 is setting up to look almost like O5!I really cant imagine another season like 05 happening again but something tells me 05 was only the begining of things to come...I HOPE IAM WRONG!but its just my gut feeling.

Psst! It is still early. Also, not all conditions are pointing towards a La Nina. In fact, the PDO has just turned positive. Also, La Nina is not the only factor.

[mike815]

thats interesting though la nina is here just not to strong yet yes again way too early but talking about doesnt hurt

[MiamiensisWx]

For now, I am thinking neutral conditions or a weak to possibly moderate La Nina. It is still very early, so my opinion will likely change.

[mike815]

i agree but la nina will get stronger still [/code]

[MiamiensisWx]

Interesting how things have been going up and down. When the PDO was positive - favoring a La Nina - the Atlantic and Pacific were trying to push more towards neutral conditions. At that time - around a few weeks ago - the Atlantic was cooling while the Pacific was warming. Now, however, the Atlantic is warming while the Pacific is cooling. This also strongly says a La Nina is here and is forming; however, the PDO has now turned neutral to positive, going against La Nina. Isn't that interesting? It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the coming months.

[Scorpion]

Seems that neutral conditions are worse than having a La Nina. La Nina the storms will likely recurve, neutral is like last year and '04.

[MiamiensisWx]

Also, La Nina is only one factor in terms of activity. 1995, which was very active, did not have as strong a La Nina as some other years.

[mike815]

very tru this is just one of the many building blocks for an active season just dont know how active

[whereverwx]

Interesting.

[mike815]

yeah its about the same as 2005 but yeah a bit cooler. hmmmm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The central Atlantic looks to be much cooler...About 8 degrees farther south.