SE Indian Ocean: TC Daryl

[P.K.]

High development potential in three days.

BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Saturday the 14th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows in the outlook area at the current time.
However a tropical low, 1001 hPa, currently over land to the west of Borroloola
in the Northern Territory, is expected to move slowly westwards over land during
the next few days. The movement of this low into the Kimberley combined with an
active northwest monsoon is expected to enhance rainfall over the Kimberley and
Top End in the next few days.

There is a high chance that this low would form into a tropical cyclone if it
was to move off the west Kimberley coast. This could occur on or after next
Tuesday, but is not likely during the intervening period.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Sunday : low
Monday : low
Tuesday : high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Saturday 14 January 2006

A tropical low, 1001 hPa lies inland just west of Borroloola. The low is
embedded in a monsoon trough which is becoming more active.

The low is expected to drift steadily westwards over land for the next few days,
reaching the Kimberley on Monday. There is a high probability that the low will
develop into a tropical cyclone if it moves off the west Kimberley coast during
Tuesday. However, the low is not expected to pose a threat to the Northern
Territory.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[P.K.]

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:00pm WST on Sunday the 15th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows in the area at the current time. However
a monsoon trough lies across the Kimberley and into the Northern Territory. A
tropical low embedded within the monsoon trough is expected to move westwards
from the Northern Territory into the Kimberley during the next two days. The
movement of this low combined with an active northwest monsoon is expected to
enhance rainfall over the north Kimberley and Top End during the next few days.

There is a high chance that this low would form into a tropical cyclone if it
was to move off the west Kimberley coast. This could occur on Tuesday but is
more likely thereafter. Alternatively the low may remain over the Kimberley as a
monsoon low. Either scenario is expected to lead to heavy rainfall in the
Kimberley.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Monday : low
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[P.K.]

IDW10800
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK FOR NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA
Issued at 1:23pm WST on Monday the 16th of January 2006
For the area between LONGITUDES 110 - 129 EAST

There are no significant tropical lows in the area at the current time. However
there are indications that a tropical low will move westwards over the Kimberley
and may move off the west Kimberley coast later in the outlook period. The
development of the low combined with an active northwest monsoon is expected to
enhance rainfall over the Kimberley during the next few days.

There is a high probability that the low will form into a tropical cyclone if it
moves off the west Kimberley coast. Alternatively it is possible the low will
remain over the Kimberley as a monsoon low. Either scenario is expected to lead
to heavy rainfall in the Kimberley.

DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL
Tuesday : low
Wednesday : moderate
Thursday : high

** NOTE: Development potential is an estimate of the probability of **
** tropical cyclone development within a 24 hour period. **
** LOW = 10% or less MODERATE = 20-40% HIGH = 50% or more

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK


TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LONGITUDES 125 EAST - 142 EAST
Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Monday 16 January 2006

A tropical low, 1000 hPa, lies well inland near the WA/NT border. The low is
expected to move westwards during the next few days and may move off the west
Kimberley coast later on Wednesday or on Thursday. Cyclone formation will be
likely if the low moves over water. It is not expected to pose a threat to the
Northern Territory, but could affect the Northwest Kimberley.

The potential for development into a Tropical Cyclone over the next
few days is estimated to be:
Tuesday: low,
Wednesday: moderate,
Thursday: high.


NOTE: Development Potential is an estimate of the probability of tropical
cyclone development for each day... Low = 10% or less, Moderate = 20% - 40%,
High = 50% or more.

DARWIN Regional Forecasting Centre.

[HURAKAN]

INVEST 94S: JUST EXPLODING! VERY AMAZING IMAGE!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do you think its going to become a strong cyclone?

[P.K.]

IDW24100
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 3:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 17 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A cyclone WATCH is current for a tropical low for coastal areas between Wallal
and Wyndham.

At 3pm WST a tropical low was inland over the Kimberley. The low is poorly
defined at present and lies approximately 200 kilometres south southwest of
Kalumburu and 290 kilometres east northeast of Derby and was stationary.

A tropical cyclone may develop if the low moves off the west Kimberley coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Tuesday or Wednesday but may
develop on Thursday. Rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to be widespread
and heavy in parts during the remainder of the week.

Details of the tropical low at 3pm WST.

Location of centre : within 50 kilometres of
Latitude 16.0 South Longitude 126.0 East.
Recent movement : stationary.
Central Pressure : 995 hPa.

The State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People in coastal areas between Wallal and Wyndham should listen for
the next advice.

The next warning will be issued at 9pm WST Tuesday 17 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/wa/cyclone

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So they write Advisories on systems over land?

[senorpepr]

So they write Advisories on systems over land?

That wasn't an "advisory." That was an outlook saying the potential is there for devleopment once it moves off-shore.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

ok...Do you think it has a good chance at developing.

[P.K.]

DW20400
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

PRIORITY

WIND WARNING
for coastal waters between Broome and Kuri Bay
Issued at 3:30 pm WST on Tuesday, 17 January 2006

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

At 2:00 PM WST a tropical low was located inland, within 100 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal zero degrees South [16.0 S]
longitude one hundred and twenty six decimal zero degrees East [126.0 E]
about 90 nautical miles east southeast of Kuri Bay and 135 nautical miles east of Cockatoo Island.
Recent movement near stationary.
Maximum winds 25 knots.
Central pressure 995 hectopascals.

Strong Wind Warning
For coastal waters between Broome and Kuri Bay
Clockwise winds increasing to 25/33 knots on Wednesday. Scattered squalls to 45 knots. Seas rising to 2m and swell rising to 2m in the north.

The next warning will be issued by 9:00 PM WST 17 January.

[senorpepr]

ok...Do you think it has a good chance at developing.

It has a really good chance to develop once it pulls away from land.

[P.K.]

IDW24100
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 3
Issued at 9:00 pm WST on Tuesday, 17 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A cyclone WATCH is current for a tropical low for coastal areas between Wallal
and Wyndham.

At 8pm WST a tropical low was located over the Kimberley. The low is poorly
defined at present and lies approximately 230 kilometres north northeast of
Derby and 250 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and drifting slowly
westwards.

A tropical cyclone may develop if the low moves off the west Kimberley coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Wednesday but may develop by
Thursday. Rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to be widespread and heavy in
parts during the remainder of the week.

Details of the tropical low at 8pm WST.

Location of centre : within 100 kilometres of
Latitude 15.5 South Longitude 124.7 East.
Recent movement : slowly westwards.
Central Pressure : 995 hPa.

The State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People in coastal areas between Wallal and Wyndham should listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 3am WST Wednesday 18 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[HURAKAN]

I thought it was the massive convective area outside Australia, but I see they still tracking a low pressure that is inland but about to move over water.

[P.K.]

IDW24100
BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OFFICE

Media: The Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 2:55 am WST on Wednesday, 18 January 2006
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A cyclone WATCH is current for a tropical low for coastal areas between Wallal
and Wyndham.

At 2am WST a tropical low was located over the Kimberley. The low is poorly
defined at present and lies approximately 230 kilometres north northeast of
Derby and 250 kilometres west southwest of Kalumburu and drifting slowly west
northwestwards.

A tropical cyclone may develop if the low moves off the west Kimberley coast.
Gales are not expected in coastal areas today but may develop by Thursday.
Rainfall over the Kimberley is expected to be widespread and heavy in parts
during the remainder of the week.

Details of the tropical low at 2am WST.

Location of centre : within 100 kilometres of
Latitude 15.5 South Longitude 124.7 East.
Recent movement : slowly west northwestwards.
Central Pressure : 995 hPa.

The State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People in coastal areas between Wallal and Wyndham should listen for
the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 9am WST Wednesday 18 January.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It appears its about ready come off the coast.

[Coredesat]

Most of the convection is already off the coast, but the center still appears to be inland.

[P.K.]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0644UTC 18 JANUARY 2006

GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0600UTC a developing tropical low was located near Kuri Bay on the west
Kimberley coast within 30 nautical miles of
Latitude 15.5 south
Longitude 124.4 east
Recent movement: almost stationary.
Maximum winds: 30 knots.
Central pressure: 992 hPa.


AREA AFFECTED
Within 90 nautical miles of the centre.


FORECAST
The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours causing
30/45 knot clockwise winds. Rough to very rough seas, moderate swell.

At 1800UTC 18 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 15.9 south 123.8 east
Central pressure 985 hPa.
Winds to 40 knots near centre.
At 0600UTC 19 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 16.4 south 123.0 east
Central pressure 982 hPa.
Winds to 45 knots near centre.

Next warning issued by 1300UTC 18 January 2006.

WEATHER PERTH

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WIND WARNING
for coastal waters between De Grey and Kuri Bay
Issued at 5:50 pm WST on Wednesday, 18 January 2006

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

At 5:00 PM WST a tropical low was located near Kuri Bay on the west Kimberley coast, within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal five degrees South [15.5 S]
longitude one hundred and twenty four decimal zero degrees East [124.0 E]
about 110 nautical miles north northeast of Derby and 170 nautical miles west southwest of Kalumburu.
Recent movement almost stationary.
Maximum winds 30 knots.
Central pressure 991 hectopascals.

Forecast to be within 80 nautical miles of
latitude sixteen decimal four degrees South [16.4 S]
longitude one hundred and twenty three decimal zero degrees East [123.0 E]
at 2 PM WST on Thursday.

Gale Wind Warning
Within 90 nautical miles of centre. Clockwise winds increasing to 30/45 knots on Thursday. Scattered squalls to 55 knots. Seas rising to 3.0m and swell rising to 3m.

Strong Wind Warning
For coastal waters elsewhere between De Grey and Cape Leveque
Southeast to southwest winds 25/33 knots north of Broome, extending west to Wallal by 2 AM WST Thursday and further extending west to De Grey by 2 PM WST Thursday. Squalls to 50 knots in thunderstorms. Seas rising to 2.5m, swell to 1.0m.
For coastal waters elsewhere between Cape Leveque and Kuri Bay
North to northwest winds 25/33 knots. Squalls to 50 knots in thunderstorms. Seas to 2.5m, swell to 1.0m.

The next warning will be issued by 9pm WST Wednesday 18 January.