South Pacific: TROPICAL CYCLONE URMIL

[HURAKAN]

Man, that thing really blew up... I guess they call them cyclones down in the SPac... if not typhoons?

Yes, Typhoons are only called in the Western Pacific. The Atlantic, Eastern, and Central Pacific use Hurricanes. The rest, the Indian Sea and the South Pacific call them Tropical Cyclones. Many people referred to the Brazilian system in 2004 as Tropical Cyclone, but I don't know if in the future they will continue using this term for the South Atlantic in the case of another system forming down there!

[HURAKAN]

By the way, Invest 91P has dissappeared from the NRL page which means that it's in the process of being renamed TC Urmil (07p).

[Epsilon_Fan]

Many people referred to the Brazilian system in 2004 as Tropical Cyclone, but I don't know if in the future they will continue using this term for the South Atlantic in the case of another system forming down there!

Yup, I've heard it was unofficially called Hurricane Catarina but there are people wanting to call it Cyclone Catarina... I like hurricane personally since they are so rare anyway

[HurricaneBill]

Yes, Typhoons are only called in the Western Pacific. The Atlantic, Eastern, and Central Pacific use Hurricanes. The rest, the Indian Sea and the South Pacific call them Tropical Cyclones. Many people referred to the Brazilian system in 2004 as Tropical Cyclone, but I don't know if in the future they will continue using this term for the South Atlantic in the case of another system forming down there!

And contrary to popular belief, Australians never used to call cyclones "willy-willys". I think that is what they refered to dust devils as.

However, I did read somewhere that they used to call cyclones "cock-eyed bobs". I don't know whether that is true or not.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140222ZJAN2006//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07P (URMIL) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.3S 172.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 25.2S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 29.0S 168.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 31.6S 163.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 172.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07P (URMIL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-
WARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW OVER A RAPIDLY
MOVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 07P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING POLEWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BY TAU 36, IT WILL
BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATE BY TAU
48. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
140221Z JAN 06 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS22 PGTW
140230). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06P (TAM) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/0806 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [990hPa] centre was located near 17.8S
173.2W at 140600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving
southsoutheast 18 knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum
10-minute average winds estimated at 40 knots close to the centre
increasing to 45 knots in the next 12 hours. Expect winds over 33
knots within 100 miles of centre.

Primary band continues to wrap tightly around LLCC. Fanning of cirrus
indicates improved outflow channels to the south and west, and
becoming good elsewhere. Dvorak analysis based on a 0.6 log-10 spiral
wrap, gives a DT=PT=3.0 and MET=2.5, yields T3.0/3.0/D1.0/12hrs.
Urmil lies under divergent 250-hpa flow ahead of an approaching
trough. Environmental shear is around 10 to 20 knots, however
resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational
speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Global models that have
captured the system move it rather rapidly southeast with some
initial intensification.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 21.7S 172.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 45
kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 25.5S 170.6W mov SSE at 25kt with 45
kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 29.8S 167.7W mov SE at 28kt with 40kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 160600 UTC near 34.4S 164.1W mov SE at 30kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will
be issued around 141400 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

URMIL SEEMS A PRETTY ROUND SYSTEM!

[HURAKAN]

14/0826 UTC 18.5S 173.2W T3.5/3.5 91P -- South Pacific Ocean

GETTING STRONGER!

[P.K.]

Er, 990mb? That storm's gotta be stronger than 40kts.

I wish all the basins used the same system.

If the NHC used the WMO standard 10 minute averages all the sustained wind speeds reported would be the same all over the globe. I like the way all the different RSMCs give different names though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Pk is the 10 minute winds a more accurate way to tell how strong a storm is? Meaning it is a better system then the one minute winds. If not then why change???


I don't understand the 10 minute winds to say for my self. How do you get from get 1 minute to 10 minute winds?

[P.K.]

If you use a longer observation period you pick up longer frequency changes of a lower magnitude so the mean wind speed will be lower.

If you did want to standardise global TC wind speeds the NHC would have to change rather than the other RSMCs.

To convert one minute averages to ten minute averages multiply them by 0.871.

[P.K.]

Storm Warning 018 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1243 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8 South
172.8 West at 141200 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 19.8S 172.8W at 141200 UTC.
Cyclone moving south at 20 knots and expected to accelerate further
and curve southsoutheast.
Cyclone intensifying.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre
Expect winds over 33 knots within 90 miles of centre.
Forecast position near 23.6S 171.4W at 150000 UTC
and near 27.6S 169.2W at 151200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 017.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this has strengthen more then forecasted. But still 2006 has not catched up to what a few of last years storm did.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Last year had monsters!

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/s_p ... index.html

[mike815]

wow those are some monsters whats new a storm getting stronger than forecasted lol

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 14/1401 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone URMIL 06F [975hPa] centre was located near 19.8S
172.8W at 141200 UTC. Position fair based on HR MTSAT EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving south
at 20 knots and expected to curve southsoutheast and accelerate
further. Maximum 10-minute average winds estimated at 60 knots close
to the centre, winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and over
33 knots within 90 miles of centre.

Urmil has undergone explosive development in the last 6 hours.
Primary band has completely wound around LLCC. Dvorak analysis based
on a 1.1 log-10 spiral wrap, gives a DT=PT=4.0 and MET=3.0, yields
T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24hrs breaking constraints. Urmil remains under
divergent 250-hPa flow ahead of an approaching trough. Outflow good
in all quadrants. Environmental shear is around 20 knots, however
resultant shear is negligible given the increasing translational
speed of the cyclone. SST around 29C. Urmil is expected to be steered
southsoutheast by deep north to northwest winds into an increasingly
sheared enviroment. Latest satellite image indicates slight warming
of convective cloud tops.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 150000 UTC near 23.6S 171.4W mov SSE at 20kt with 60
kt close to the centre.
24hrs valid at 151200 UTC near 27.6S 169.2W mov SSE at 25kt with 60
kt close to the centre.

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 160000 UTC near 32.1S 165.8W mov SE at 30kt with 50kt
close to the centre.
48hrs valid at 161200 UTC near 36.6S 162.0W mov SE at 35kt with 40kt
close to the centre.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone URMIL will
be issued around 142000 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

14/1426 UTC 20.8S 172.7W T4.0/4.0 URMIL -- South Pacific Ocean


A "HURRICANE" IN OUR HANDS!

[P.K.]

Storm Warning 019 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/1912 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone Urmil [980hPa] centre was located near 22.3 South
171.9 West at 141800 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 22.3S 171.9W at 141800 UTC.
Cyclone moving southeast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate
further.
Cyclone weakening.
Expect sustained winds of 55 knots close to the centre decreasing to
45 knots in the next 12 to 24 hours.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 20 miles of centre and
over 33 knots within 100 miles of centre.

Forecast position near 26.4S 170.3W at 150600 UTC
and near 28.0S 169.6W at 151800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI and TCWC Wellington. For
RSMC Nadi: VOS reporting ships use normal channels. Other vessels fax
plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 018.

[HURAKAN]

14/2026 UTC 22.8S 172.0W T3.0/4.0 URMIL -- South Pacific Ocean


THE ROLLER COASTER IS NOW GOING DOWN!

[Epsilon_Fan]

looks like it's on the downswing