I need some mythbusting help

[terstorm1012]

I'm 15 but I've read/watched worse

Here's a few sites you can use for your story as reference:

I'll post these in Hurricane Preperation to hopefully be stickied, along with the New Jersey evac routes when I find them.

http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/readyn ... zones.html
http://chps.sam.usace.army.mil/USHESdat ... report.htm
http://www.nysemo.state.ny.us/PIO/publi ... repare.asp
http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:RX ... Plan&hl=en
http://www.whoi.edu/home/about/currents ... canes.html
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/fedagenc ... _9-26.html

AND one real gorgeous map: http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/pdf/hurrica ... nglish.pdf

MORE: http://www.csc.noaa.gov/hez_tool/mapper.html
http://www.pbsj.com/what/Core/geoinfo/p ... mSurgeNYC/

[Extremeweatherguy]

a magnitude 5 quake as a way of planning for a disaster? That, to be honest, is a total jokeThere differences between a 5 and a 6 are exponential (had a 5 in Ohio the same day Georges hit the Keys... little damage)

yes, the sky scrapers will hold in a mag 5 quake, likely in a 6 as well

I NEVER mentioned them collapsing as the winds wont be strong enough (even the surge for the ones on the coast wont collapse)

also, NYC is not just Manhattan. A cat 3 will likely put JFK airport under 20-30 feet of water based upon model simulations. West LI on the coats would be leveled, except for the sky scrapers, which would be gutted

After Hurricane Jeanne hit the east coast of Florida, I did see partial building collapses on high rise condos and hotels with large slabs of the walls falling/collapsed. Also, I have seen pictures of condos/hotels being more than half collapsed during other coastal storms.

[Halogen]

I honestly don't see five hundred thousand people dying, plus NYC has really good emergency plans. If a Category Three hit NYC (Considering a Cat 5 would be almost impossible, unless someone heated the Atlantic Ocean or it could fit in the Gulf Stream), then my guess would be skyscrapers get serious damage, Part of the Empire State Building *COULD* be ripped off, and (obviously) most/all of the windows would come out. Since NYC is more surge prone than MS, and MS got a 30 foot storm surge from Katrina, which was a three at landfall, NYC would probably get it worse, however water would receed very quickly, unlike New Orleans (New Orleans is basically a low-lying bowl). I could see about 30,000 deaths, but nothing higher.

Then again, I can be and I probably am totally wrong.

[mike815]

yeah i know what your saying though either way it still would be very bad maybe cripling

[terstorm1012]

I drew a great map of NYC and LongIsland's SLOSH model output during my lunch hour....well I didn't really draw it, New York State did and put the data out for free and I just put it into ArcView and manipulated the colors...but I am off 'till Tuesday...when I go back I'll send you the map if someone else hasn't already, HurFloyd.

[Derek Ortt]

people would also be caught on the roads during the storm since there is no way to evacuate in time and the warning very short, meaning we would likely see a high death toll from the wind itself

[Jim Cantore]

and the many people with no vechicle to leave in would be trapped

millions would be trapped in a watery death pool

[mike815]

geez that leaves a nasty image.

[NC George]

Long Island flooding - that's where your 100,000+ deaths would occur.

As a side note, Derek, Rhode Island and Providence Plantations (the actual name of the state) is in between Conn and Mass, so it wouldn't hit there the same time as NJ.

[wxmann_91]

Some ideas for your project if you need it:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 92#1170892

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 123#987123

[Derek Ortt]

I am well aware of where RI is

Its just that a very fast moving storm hitting near NYC and Sea Bright would still produce about 8-10 feet of surge into RI as the wind field expands. It would likely be larger than was Wilma when it came into Florida

[mike815]

yup