Technically, No Texas landfalls in 04-05 record seasons

[HouTXmetro]

Despite record breaking hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005. Texas has not had a direct hit from any tropical systems in that period. If you include Rita, that's one but she came ashore in extreme SW Louisiana. What are the chances the bullseye could shift a little further west for 06?

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

[HouTXmetro]

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

Can you explain please?

[Huckster]

I am usually one to ignore ridiculous speculations given 8 to 10 months in advance (I am not "bashing" forecasts that particular basins will be active or inactive) as to what 50-100 mile stretches of the coast will be hit by a hurricane because some freakin' part of the ocean somewhere farted in January. After all, I was pretty sure (sarcasm intended) peninsular Florida was not going to be hit very much in 2005 per the weather weenies' citing of westerly surface winds at the onset of Hurricane Season 2005 (I don't think there were any westerly winds in FL at all during 2004, the year FL lost its innocence). I was also assured that Louisiana would be spared most of the serious landfalls of 2005 per Joe Bastardi (except when he insisted that Dennis was going to slam New Orleans (I guess that fantasy came true finally with Katrina)); 2005 was going to be an East Coast year, right, Joe?. I don't have the analytical skills or patience to evaluate his "forecasts" for landfall regions, but I do have to say, using my raw emotions, I'll be very skeptical about any claims that sound sensational. Who has actually issued a "Cape Verde forecast?" 1909 was a La Nina year. Texas kinda got hit hard. I know this is not scientific, but the older I get, the faster time passes, and the less I worry about what X-year might bring. 2007 will be here before I know it. Wait, we're still in 2006. Galveston was supposed to be wiped out last September (based on some predictions. It's still there.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

Can you explain please?

If most major storms form in the Eastern Atlantic this season, then a large majority of them will recurve...according to conventional wisdom, at least, Atlantic long-trackers like Georges, Ivan, and Frances are pretty rare. If there's a strong Cape Verde season, I'd assume the Bermuda High would have to be situated fairly far to the East to provide more favorable winds in the CV region...which in turn opens the backdoor for recurvature somewhere between Bermuda and the East Coast, like 1995.

That's just conventional tropical wisdom though. I wouldn't count on that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

Can you explain please?

If most major storms form in the Eastern Atlantic this season, then a large majority of them will recurve...according to conventional wisdom, at least, Atlantic long-trackers like Georges, Ivan, and Frances are pretty rare. If there's a strong Cape Verde season, I'd assume the Bermuda High would have to be situated fairly far to the East to provide more favorable winds in the CV region...which in turn opens the backdoor for recurvature somewhere between Bermuda and the East Coast, like 1995.

That's just conventional tropical wisdom though. I wouldn't count on that.

After the last 2 yrs...I wouldn't count on anything.

[mike815]

me either anything goes!

[ROCK]

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

Can you explain please?

If most major storms form in the Eastern Atlantic this season, then a large majority of them will recurve...according to conventional wisdom, at least, Atlantic long-trackers like Georges, Ivan, and Frances are pretty rare. If there's a strong Cape Verde season, I'd assume the Bermuda High would have to be situated fairly far to the East to provide more favorable winds in the CV region...which in turn opens the backdoor for recurvature somewhere between Bermuda and the East Coast, like 1995.

That's just conventional tropical wisdom though. I wouldn't count on that.

After the last 2 yrs...I wouldn't count on anything.

agreed. way to early to tell what pattern will set-up this summer. We know La Nina but where is that dam Bermuda high going to settle in. I stilll think Tx is will be visited at least twice this year. Just a hunch given the western trend of 05

[mike815]

yeah maybe it will be bad anyway but i think the high will be situated for more of an east coast threat and not so much gulf like 05. But we dont know still too early.

[vbhoutex]

I don 't have time to go into any detail or "fantasy" forecasts at the moment(I will later), but my initial thinking based on early indicators(mostly what I have read) is that indeed there will be a Cape Verde season this year and the East coast will see at least 2 hits imo. The GOM will continue active, but not as active as the last two years. That westward trend of landfalls in the GOM is starting to look exactly like that-a trend-and has me a little concerned since I live in Houston.

[Tyler]

Well, I for one am very thankfull that Houston has been spared. But, one of these days will be our turn. Its amazing to think nothing hit Texas in the 2004 and 2005 seasons, just simply amazing.

[hicksta]

Somone doenst remember the 1900 hurricane, which was a cape verde

Unlikely, if the Cape Verde forecast verifies.

Can you explain please?

If most major storms form in the Eastern Atlantic this season, then a large majority of them will recurve...according to conventional wisdom, at least, Atlantic long-trackers like Georges, Ivan, and Frances are pretty rare. If there's a strong Cape Verde season, I'd assume the Bermuda High would have to be situated fairly far to the East to provide more favorable winds in the CV region...which in turn opens the backdoor for recurvature somewhere between Bermuda and the East Coast, like 1995.

That's just conventional tropical wisdom though. I wouldn't count on that.

[MiamiensisWx]

Still, some easterly waves do make it across and make landfall in Texas. Allen from 1980 made it all the way across.

[Agua]

There was a stunning graphic put out by NOAA which was presented for the purpose of comparing the frequency of major canes in "non-active" seasons as compared to "active" seasons. I posted it on this board a couple of times.

The thing that REALLY stood out to me, and kinda freaked me out, was the complete paucity of major canes striking the TX coast. It was really weird.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My thinking is that we see many hurricanes grazing the east coast with 1 or 2 landfall this year (one in New England)...but I do not think that we will ONLY see that. I think we see a few homegrown storms in the Gulf or Caribbean which may become hurricanes, as well as 1 or 2 Cape Verde storms that make it to the Gulf. I have a feeling that Florida gets hit by 2 or 3 storms this year and that Texas sees 1 or 2. I also think that the devastated northern Gulf coast gets one storm, but I have a feeling it will be weak and fast causing little damage. As for Houston, I am going to predict that we AT LEAST see Tropical Storm Conditions similar to Rita, but I would not be surprised if we got a hurricane force wind recorded at a local airport (we are due). 2006 should be interesting for sure.

[Halogen]

I really don't think it's going to shift, considering La Nina this year.
I consider that Rita did make landfall on Texas, although it techinically didn't.

[southerngale]

I really don't think it's going to shift, considering La Nina this year.
I consider that Rita did make landfall on Texas, although it techinically didn't.

Yeah, I hear ya. We'll be recovering for a long time for the hurricane that didn't hit here. I can't afford for another hurricane to not hit Texas.



Funny how the eye went right over us, too. I hope they all stay far, far away from me!!

[Halogen]

O_O, obviously it will take a while to recover, but I don't recall seeing the eye over Texas in any image. Do you have a link to one by any chance?

[southerngale]

O_O, obviously it will take a while to recover, but I don't recall seeing the eye over Texas in any image. Do you have a link to one by any chance?

Umm, it tracked right over Southeast Texas and then north right through Jasper, where I had evacuated to. The NHC said it was over Jasper at 10am Saturday morning but the worst of the storm occurred for many hours overnight and into the early morning. At 10am, conditions were bad but the worst of it was over. It was a terrifying experience with it hitting in the dark.

[KatDaddy]

I feel the W and NW GOM will be much more active in 2006. Its was a quiet area compared to other locations.

Also note the shifting Westward trend. Ominous from a TX viewpoint.