Tasman Sea: TC Tam

[HURAKAN]

IMPRESSIVE!

[HURAKAN]

FROM THE PREVIOUS SLIDE!

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 012 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1303 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 20.0 South
170.8 West at 131200 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 20.0S 170.8W at 131200 UTC.

Cyclone moving southsoutheast at 20 knots and expected to accelerate
to 25 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 100 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 24.3S 169.5W at 140000 UTC
and near 29.8S 169.4W at 141200 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 011.


NO CHANGE!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A9 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 13/1957 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South
169.3 West at 131800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT EIR/VIS
imagery with animation. Cyclone moving south-southeast at about 23
knots and expected to accelerate further. Maximum 10-minute average
winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots. Winds over 33
knots within 120 miles of the centre in the sector from north through
east to southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection decreased and tops warmed significantly past 6 hours.
Warm dry air entrainment together with increasing shear influencing
system. Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap giving a T2.5. MET=2.0 and
PT=2.5. Thus T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24hrs. Tam remains under a divergent
250-hpa region. Outflow good to east and south but restricted
elsewhere. Cyclone caught under strong northwest steering regime.

FORECAST:
12hrs valid at 140600 UTC near 28.0S 168.1W mov SE at 23 kt with 45
kt close to the centre
24hrs valid at 141800 UTC near 32.5S 165.6W mov SE at 25 kt with 40
kt close to the centre

OUTLOOK:
36hrs valid at 150600 UTC near 39.5S 162.2W mov SE at 33 kt with 35
kt close to the centre
48hrs valid at 151800 UTC near 42.9S 162.7W mov SE at 30 kt with 30
kt close to the centre

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 140200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Gale Warning 014 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/1913 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [987hPa] was located near 23.6 South
169.3 West at 131800 UTC.
Position poor.
Repeat position 23.6S 169.3W at 131800 UTC.

Cyclone moving south-southeast at 23 knots and expected to accelerate
further.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 miles of the centre in the
sector from north through east to southwest and within 60 miles of
centre elsewhere.

Forecast position near 28.0S 168.1W at 140600 UTC
and near 32.5S 165.6W at 141800 UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to RSMC NADI. VOS reporting ships use
normal channels. Other vessels fax plus 679 6720190 or email naditcc
at met dot gov dot fj.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 012.

[MiamiensisWx]

Tam now looks slightly less impressive; in fact, TD 05F looks more impressive than Tam does currently, convection-wise!

[HURAKAN]

Tam now looks slightly less impressive; in fact, TD 05F looks more impressive than Tam does currently, convection-wise!

I fully agree!

[HURAKAN]

13/2052 UTC 25.7S 168.6W T3.0/3.0 TAM -- South Pacific Ocean


NOTHING NEW!

[P.K.]

From TCWC-Wellington, Meteorological Service of New Zealand:

WTNZ41 NZKL 140037
GALE WARNING 165
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE 988HPA]WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3 SOUTH
168.0 WEST AT 132300 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 26.3S 168.0W AT 132300 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE
SECTOR FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO SOUTH AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF
CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29S 167W AT 141100 UTC
AND NEAR 34S 166W AT 142300 UTC.
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 164.

NNNN

[P.K.]

Tam has crossed into the NZ area now.

Gale Warning 016 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 14/0054 UTC 2006 UTC.

REFER TO WARNING 165 ON TC TAM ISSUED BY TCWC WELLINGTON AT 132300
UTC.

All vessels within 300 nautical miles of the centre are requested to
send reports every three hours to TCWC WELLINGTON.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 014.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TAM) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 27.2S 167.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 40 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.2S 167.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 35.0S 164.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 45 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 43.2S 159.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 29.1S 166.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TAM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM
SOUTHWEST OF RAROTONGA, HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND
VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED HAVE CAUSED TC 06P TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVPACMETOCCEN). THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 5 FEET.//


THE JTWC THROWS THE TOWEL ON TAM AND SAYS, "THAT'S ALL FOLKS!"

[JonathanBelles]

wow i thought it was getting better organized

[P.K.]

WTNZ41 NZKL 140644
GALE WARNING 170
THIS AFFECTS OCEAN AREA/S: PACIFIC
TROPICAL CYCLONE TAM CENTRE 990HPA]WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0 SOUTH
166.5 WEST AT 140500 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 30.0S 166.5W AT 140500 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT 30 KNOTS, EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW NEXT 6 HOURS.

EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 MILES OF CENTRE IN EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 MILES OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 36S 165W AT 141700 UTC
AND NEAR 42S 164W AT 150500 UTC.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 165.

NNNN

[P.K.]

Extratropical:

GALE WARNING 175
This affects ocean area/s: PACIFIC

AT 141200UTC

Low 990hPa, formerly cyclone Tam, near 33S 168W, moving south 30kt.
Within 240 miles of low in eastern semicircle: Clockwise 40kt.
Area of gales moving south with low.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 170.

[HURAKAN]

Good Bye, Tam.

[HURAKAN]

14/1500 UTC 36.5S 163.2W EXTRATROPICAL TAM -- South Pacific Ocean

EVERYONE AGREES: EXTRATROPICAL!

[MiamiensisWx]

Tam is in the process of fading away!