how would you revise the SS scale

[LSU2001]

It is important to remember that the public does not have to rely on the SS scale alone. Before Katrina the NWS issued this warning.(Below) IF joe public chooses to stay put in the face of such warnings what would changing the SS scale accomplish. I would venture to guess that the majority of everyday folks do not even understand the scale or what it is supposed to do.
JMHO\
TIM

DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA

A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL OLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

[StormSkeptic]

Interesting discussion. A fews things which come out of all the good points people are making:
- Each hurricane presents a different destruction potential. In some cases it is the wind, others surge, some flooding. This destruction potential varies by the strengh, size and speed of the hurricane, as well as, local variations, including inland terrain (e.g., flat vs. mountains) and coastal configuration (as many have pointed out which has a great influence on surge heights.) As such, no rating, even a complex one, will be able to completely capture all these facets. Also, the reality is that the public are not Hurricane experts and a simple rating is probably best.
- Wind speed, while not perfect, is still probably the best proxy for the current strength of a storm if using a simple rating system. However, using the max 1-minute speed that not only may occur over a very small part of the storm, but will rarely be felt beyond the immediate coastline, does not really represent the strength of the storm. Thus, some modifications to this would seem in order. Wouldn't go away from the Cat rating scale, since this is well ingrained in the public's minds - but redefining the criteria to take into account the size of the storm would make sense. Also, since most storms are asymetric, especially when hitting a coast, there becomes this false understanding of what it is like and what destruction true hurricance force sustained winds can do. For example, when a CAT 1 storm hits the coast to the left of the eye, it is unlikely that sustained hurricane force winds would be felt. Even to the right of the eye, these winds would only be felt at the very immediate coast, probably in the eye-wall. Yeet, everyone will be under a hurricane warning
- Since much of the destruction in a hurricane is local dependent - the storm rating will never fully capture this.


Thus, I think 2 things should be done - revise the SS scale and capture the local aspects of the storm with local warning levels:

1) Recalibrate the wind criteria to relate to the mean windspeed in the core of the storm and thus be more representative of the storm surge potential and the conditions most people will actually experience.
2) Develop specific warnings, beyond a hurricane warning, with levels for the other aspects of the storm. For example, have a minimal, moderate, strong and severe surge warning. These can be refined to smaller areas and take local topology into account. Also, maybe have levels of warnings (I think they do this in other parts of the world, such as Taiwan where they have levels) to better scale the hurriance warning. SOmething like hurricnane warning, major hurricane warning, and sever hurricance warning. These can be applied even within the same storm, so those areas that will be affect by the core of a major hurricane, would have the warning level, other areas, a hurricane warning and then tropical storm warning. But even in a storm like Katrina, areas under jsut a hurricane warning, may be also under a severe surge warning or severe flood warning.

[docjoe]

. When an advisory gives the details on a storm it may say, for example, maximum sustained winds of 135 MPH. Most likely these winds are confined to a small area of the eyewall. Since we know that the winds don't maintain a constant speed around the eyewall or windfield this is not indicative of the entire eyewall or windfield. Different areas will have markedly different winds depending on their location in the storm. Would it make sense to give an estimate of average windspeed to be expected by most people at landfall while not diminishing the fact that you have 135 MPH winds in the storm. For example maybe the NE quad has 135 winds, the SE quad has 125 , the NW quad has 110 and the SW has 100. One could then say that while the highest winds are 135 the average windspeed in the eyewall is 115-120 and most likely the right of the foward motion of the storm will have highest winds. After this was done then smarter folks than I could find a way to incorporate this into an effective warning classification system!!

docjoe...yes i know this is a repeat from an earlier thread

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I agree with many of the posters here. I would integrate size, especially of the hurricane force wind field, with speed of travel. It is quite clear than an Ivan sized system moving at roughly the same speed as an Andrew size system with the same sustained winds will cause more damage due to the longer duration of destructive conditions.