Ohio: Mid month change or a January to forget?

[Gord_on_snow]

Time to get the Ohio people on this board out again as it looks like a potentially interesting question is setting itself up.

I've been doing my usual research...and apart from the teeny cold snap about to happen...it looks like this zonal flow will continue for a while.

But i've also been reading ideas about some big change to cold conditions around mid month...which is exactly what happened last January here.

So basically, as someone who is only going through their 2nd Ohio (and US) winter...i would like your views on this as you guys obviously have far more experience than me on winters here!

Also, can zonal weather be beneficial to Ohio in terms of snow during the winter?...i know back home in the UK zonality just brings mild and wet weather...but this continental climate is proving to be very different.

[carve]

Yes zonal here in ohio usually means milder weather.I have also been hearing mid-month for cold..But around here who knows.

[Gord_on_snow]

Thank you..i was pretty sure that zonal meant mild and wet here as well...though lets be honest, there has been overwhelming evidence of that recently!

I think the 'who knows?' with regards to any changes in weather is the best attitude to have. One thing i've learnt is that things can change so quickly around here.

The little cold snap we are having now isn't really that impressive but it was never meant to be.

The way forward for me is to take each weather event and each system at a time and see where we end up...if it gets to mid-March and it still hasn't changed...then i think then we can safely say its one to forget!

Anyway, if it must be zonal..we might as well have some more thunderstorms then, yes?

[Gord_on_snow]

Just to drag this old thread up...

..i think time is answering my original question.

If it must be mild though, why cant everyday be like today...its been beautiful!

Ok, scrap January then..

..what about February!

[therock1811]

Just to drag this old thread up...

..i think time is answering my original question.

If it must be mild though, why cant everyday be like today...its been beautiful!

Ok, scrap January then..

..what about February!

DISCLAIMER: The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Something tells me you have not heard what's happened last 24-36 hours. It looks like a good 2-4" snow could fall late tomorrow night according to the 12Z GFS and NAM. However the NAM had problems initializing today. But the GFS looks good with the 18Z putting out up to 1.75" in liquid precip for you into Saturday. This is, I believe, the start of that change to cold.

[Burn1]

Cold air will be confined to the west from 15th through rest of month

[Miss Mary]

I'm on a local Meteorologist Rich Apuzzo's wx email list. Here was his update, from yesterday. Also, here's his station's website:
http://www.wxix.com/Global/category.asp ... v=menu63_4


What's Up With Weather

It's back by popular demand, although it never went away. That's right, it's time for another What's Up With Weather update, and after some reallyboring weather, things are about to change. The weather pattern for the past few weeks has been generally west-to-east across thecountry, something we call Zonal Flow. In that kind of pattern, storms move quickly from west to east, producing little precipitation and causing
minor temperature changes. In fact, in the winter, this kind of pattern produces milder than normal weather across the Ohio Valley. Does that sound familiar? A storm moving east from the Rocky Mountains will end that pattern tomorrow and over the next few weeks, we will experience larger and
stronger storms with significant temperature swings. Could this pattern cause a major snowstorm to hit the Tri-State? Yes, it could, but that is not in the forecast yet.

Today will be gorgeous across the area as sunshine and southerly winds combine to push highs to around 60 degrees this afternoon. The mild air will continue tonight as the developing storm approaches, but after starting mild tomorrow, colder air will move into tomorrow afternoon and
evening. Rain will develop late tonight, with some locally heavy rain possible tomorrow morning and midday. A thunderstorm is also possible. However, as cold air pushes in Friday evening, the rain will change to snow and may accumulate a bit before ending on Saturday. The overnight computer models are all generating about an inch or so of snowfall, but the recent warmth will cause much of that to melt as it hits the ground. Temperatures will be below freezing by Saturday morning, so there will be some slick
roads and minor accumulations at that time.

This storm will explode along the east coast, producing widespread rain and snow from the Carolinas north into New England on Saturday. A few flurries may linger here, but this system will not spend much time in the Ohio Valley. However, this storm is the first of a series of stronger storms that will be common in the next 3 to 4 weeks. Instead of the storms I
described above, each system in the near future will be larger, produce more rain and snow and bring big changes in temperature. Today we will be near 60, but by Saturday afternoon, temperatures will hold to the low and
mid 30s, which is nearly a 30-degree change! Warmer air returns quickly Monday as the next large storm develops, but more rain is likely late Monday and Tuesday, ending as snow on Wednesday. Another strong storm will follow that one by the end of next week. This represents a big shift in our
weather pattern, and all it will take is for some colder air to mix in and we will have big Midwestern snowstorms.

With all of that in mind, I am getting outside for a walk today. First, I will record my audio version of this email that you can get on the FOX19 web site. Just go to http://www.fox19.com
http://www.fox19.com and click on our Podcast link. I will also send an update later today if the morning models show significant changes in this developing storm. I will, as always, have the latest forecast and a look at the stormy 7-day
forecast tonight on the Ten O'Clock News.

Keep your eyes on the sky and enjoy the changing weather!

Rich Apuzzo

[ohiostorm]

I don't see any changes to come here this month. It looks like it will remain zonal. We are forecasted some snow tomorrow but warmer weather returns by the start of next week. I think Feb and March will be out "winter" months.

[Gord_on_snow]

I hadn't seen those models runs before last night...

...but nothing happened! A very light dusting on my car was it!

I think that says it all about this month really.

I am done with Janaury, the next 2 weeks look awful...doesn't even look like there will be much sunshine so its not like we can even enjoy the milder air. Very depressing. No snow, no sun, the worst conditions in my opnion for Janaury.

But a month is a very long time in weather...and after Janaury, there is still a momth and two thirds of winter left.

[dawgpound]

Considering the price of natural gas in Ohio, we can be very thankful for the moderate temperatures we have been experiencing!

[Gord_on_snow]

After seeing last month's bill, i couldn't agree more!

Could use more days like yesterday though when the sun was glorious all day. If it must be mild, i'd like it if it was sunny too so we can make the most of it.

Today is just yucky and reminds me of back home in England!

That colder air seems to be spilling across Indiana pretty fast, much more than it did last weekend. Do you think tonight might pan out differently to last Friday or will it just be a few snow showers with no suitable ground to settle on again?

[jasons2k]

I wish my friends down here in Texas appreciated the nice weather we've been having (at least until today, now it's chilly again). At least you guys up north appreciate nice weather in January when you have it. I'm with you guys, I'll take mild/warm weather in the winter any day, unless I'm on a ski trip or something.

[WaitingForSiren]

To answer Gord, nothing more than a few snow showers are expected. The exception may be northern Indiana , as far as being close to where you are. They might get one to three inches. In this situation (ahead of a strong cold front), all the moisture gets pushed away along with the cold air, so all you get is leftover moisture or instability snow showers with the influx of cold air.

[gboudx]

I wish my friends down here in Texas appreciated the nice weather we've been having (at least until today, now it's chilly again). At least you guys up north appreciate nice weather in January when you have it. I'm with you guys, I'll take mild/warm weather in the winter any day, unless I'm on a ski trip or something.

I bet in July/August most folks in Tejas would be appreciative of a nice cool day below 90. I don't like it being near 80 during Winter. Why, because I know that our Winter is relatively short. I like cold weather because it's a nice respite from what I know will be hell during the Summer. Nice weather in January to me, is highs in the 50's, kind of like today.

[jasons2k]

I wish my friends down here in Texas appreciated the nice weather we've been having (at least until today, now it's chilly again). At least you guys up north appreciate nice weather in January when you have it. I'm with you guys, I'll take mild/warm weather in the winter any day, unless I'm on a ski trip or something.

I bet in July/August most folks in Tejas would be appreciative of a nice cool day below 90. I don't like it being near 80 during Winter. Why, because I know that our Winter is relatively short. I like cold weather because it's a nice respite from what I know will be hell during the Summer. Nice weather in January to me, is highs in the 50's, kind of like today.

Well it's 56 here, just stepped outside and my ears are still numb.

I love the heat....maybe I'm biased because I have a pool.

When I lived in Tampa, there was a saying "you don't want to live past Tarpon Springs...it gets too cold north of there". I've been in Texas since 1988 and still agree with whomever coined that one.

[WaitingForSiren]

You guys are all a bunch of whiney *******. Its like 20 degrees here with a windchill of 0 or so.

[jasons2k]

You guys are all a bunch of whiney *******. Its like 20 degrees here with a windchill of 0 or so.

Oh believe me, I endured plenty of days like that when I lived in Lubbock. Most people associate Texas with warm but that's not the case up in the Panhandle, where it's over 3,000 ft. up and nothing between there and Canada but a few barbed wire fences.

[gboudx]

You guys are all a bunch of whiney *******. Its like 20 degrees here with a windchill of 0 or so.

What's a whiney star?

[Gord_on_snow]

I have every right to enjoy all the weather i get here in Ohio!

I'm from England where its cool and damp all year round.

Remember, it took until 2003 for England to record its first ever offical 100F...England hasn't had a decent widespread snow event since 1996, (though some very localised events since have been pretty good).

Its very rare for temps to get below 20F or above 95F in England, some years 90F, (in 2004, i dont remember it getting above 80F all summer where i was living).

And heres the one thats more relevant this month, for the majority of the UK, Janaury has an average of one and a half hours of sunshine, for the whole month!

So as you can see, i have every right to enjoy whatever Ohio throws at me! Already this Janaury, we have had 3 nice, mild sunny days..thats something like 10 times the sunshine England gets this month already! (and one nice cold sunny day here in Ohio as well!)

I'm moving back to England this year....and unless theres some drastic climate change or the Atlantic jet stream shuts down or gets drastically altered...i'll be whinging again!

[Miss Mary]

Well, count me in - I'm whinging......which is actually spelled whining, I think.....

There's an article on CNN, or a major newsource website, about how each snowflake is different and unique. A proven fact now. I wanted to post that article and say....

now here's what we're missing - snowflakes!!! MIA!

Mary