ARABIAN SEA: Remnants of TC 01A should make landfall in Oman

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HURAKAN
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ARABIAN SEA: Remnants of TC 01A should make landfall in Oman

#1 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 12, 2006 2:54 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N
80.1E, HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED SOUTH AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 80.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH OF COLUMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SLOWLY
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A LARGE WELL ORGANIZED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 120024Z
QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
WITH ASYMMETRICALLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

Image

12/1430 UTC 3.3N 80.1E T1.5/1.5 90B -- Bay of Bengal

It seems this disturbance will develop in the Arabian Sea over the next following days.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Jan 18, 2006 11:35 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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#2 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Jan 12, 2006 4:37 pm

Back to back January NIndian storms? Doesn't look bad right now.
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#3 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jan 12, 2006 6:13 pm

Image
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#4 Postby MiamiensisWx » Thu Jan 12, 2006 6:25 pm

Looking fairly good now!
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#5 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Fri Jan 13, 2006 4:31 am

WTIO21 PGTW 130830
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/130821ZJAN2006//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.2N 78.5E TO 5.9N 75.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.4N
78.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.1N
80.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 78.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL
DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 140830Z.//

NNNN
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 13, 2006 7:33 am

13/0830 UTC 4.9N 77.0E T2.5/2.5 90B -- Arabian Sea
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:25 pm

13/1430 UTC 5.1N 76.6E T2.5/2.5 90B -- Arabian Sea

AFTER A HOT BAY OF BENGAL, IT SEEMS THE ARABIAN SEA WILL HAVE THE FIRST CYCLONE OF THE YEAR FOR THE NIO!
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#8 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 13, 2006 1:31 pm

It looks well-established and fairly good currently on imagery!
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#9 Postby Hurricanehink » Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:06 pm

According to NRL, we have 1B! Only thing is that it's B, not A, but it's still the first of the season.
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#10 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:45 pm

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130821ZJAN2006//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 5.7N 76.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 5.7N 76.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 6.9N 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 7.5N 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 7.8N 71.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 8.0N 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 6.0N 75.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. A 131232Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE, 131512Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION. TC 01A
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU
36. HOWEVER, WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
130751ZJAN2006 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW
130800). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.

TC 1A IS HERE!
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#11 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 3:47 pm

cool something else to track.
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#12 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 13, 2006 4:20 pm

13/1930 UTC 5.7N 76.2E T3.5/3.0 90B -- Arabian Sea

TC 01A IS BOMBING!!!
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#13 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 13, 2006 4:26 pm

Image
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#14 Postby MiamiensisWx » Fri Jan 13, 2006 5:31 pm

Activity in the South Pacific and the Indian Ocean is very hot right now!
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#15 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 5:33 pm

yeah it sure is!
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#16 Postby P.K. » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:20 pm

WTIN20 DEMS 131640

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
------------------------
DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 13-01-2006 (.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700
UTC (.)

SUB:- DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A DEPRESSION HAS FORMED
OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 13 TH
JANUARY 2006 NEAR LAT.5.0 DEG N AND LONG 77.0 DEG E. THE SYSYTEM
IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION.


BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN
OVER SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA AND MALDIVES IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
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#17 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:41 pm

Image

20060114.0100.meteo5.x.ir1km.01ANONAME.40kts-994mb-62N-753E.jpg

LOOKING AND GETTING STRONGER!
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#18 Postby mike815 » Fri Jan 13, 2006 8:44 pm

yeah it looks like it is better much better tonight
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#19 Postby P.K. » Sat Jan 14, 2006 4:25 am

No. ARB/1/2006/01 Dated : 14th January, 2006

Subject : Deep Depression over Arabian Sea

A depression formed over southeast Arabian Sea in the evening of 13th January 2006. Moving in a west-northwesterly direction, it intensified into a deep depression and lay centered at 0830 hrs. IST of 14th January, 2006 near Lat. 5.5o N and Long. 75.5o E about 450 km southeast of Minicoy. The system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction.

Under its influence, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over southern parts of Lakshadweep islands during next 48 hours.
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#20 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jan 14, 2006 5:17 am

Image

WTIO31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 6.6N 73.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 73.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 7.4N 71.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 8.6N 69.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 9.8N 66.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 10.3N 64.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 6.8N 73.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST OF
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN CONVECTION, HOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE RADIAL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY FRAGMENTED. DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, TC 01A IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRIER AIR AND LESS
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.

WINDS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS!
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