CPC January Update for ENSO,La Nina Next 3-6 Months

[cycloneye]

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
January 12, 2006

Synopsis: Developing La Niña conditions are expected to continue during the next 3-6 months.

Equatorial SST anomalies greater than +0.5ºC were restricted to the region between Indonesia and 165ºE during December, while negative anomalies less than –0.5ºC were observed at most locations between the date line and the South American coast (Fig. 1). By the end of the month the SST departures were negative in all of the Niño regions (Fig. 2). During the last several months surface and subsurface temperature anomalies have decreased in the region between 180ºW and the South American coast (Fig. 3). During the same period persistent stronger-than-average low-level equatorial easterly winds were observed over the central Pacific.Since early November there has been a persistent pattern of enhanced tropical convection near 130ºE (Indonesia) and suppressed convection near the date line (180ºW). Collectively, the present oceanic and atmospheric anomalies are consistent with the development of La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific.

Over the past several months most of the statistical and coupled model forecasts have trended towards cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific through mid-2006. The spread of the most recent statistical and coupled model forecasts (weak La Niña to ENSO-neutral) indicates some uncertainty in the outlooks (Fig. 4). However, current conditions (stronger-than-average easterly winds over the central equatorial Pacific) and recent cooling trends in observed oceanic conditions support the continuation of La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific during the next 3-6 months.

Based on current conditions in the tropical Pacific, the most recent SST predictions,and on results from historical studies on the effects of cold episodes, we expect wetter-than-normal (drier-than-normal) conditions to prevail over Indonesia (central equatorial Pacific) during the remainder of the NH winter. That pattern of tropical precipitation favors a northward shift in the position of the jet stream over the eastern North Pacific during winter, which is usually accompanied by drier-than-normal conditions over southern California and Arizona. However, given the late onset of La Niña there is considerable uncertainty as to whether or not typical La Niña impacts will be experienced in the West during the remainder of NH winter.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... _advisory/


For the first time Climate Prediction Center in it's monthly updates says a true la nina is now in the equatorial pacific.

[HURAKAN]

Let see how much will this affect the amount of tropical cyclones in the 2006 hurricane season. It seems it's going to be another extraordinary catastrophic and intense year. Lets start preparing for the worse and praying for the best.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WOW looks like LA nina is coming!!!! That means a strong Cape Verde season....Also means this season should looks like 2004 or maybe more like 1995.

[Derek Ortt]

2004 was actually weakly el ninoish

1996 was la ninish, as were 1998 and 1999


NC took it hard those seasons

[Jim Hughes]

Well it's about time they WOKE UP and smelled the coffee. I have said this time and time again. Any one who has ever followed their outlooks over the past decade or more should know that they hardly ever actually tell you there is an ENSO phase out there until the damn thing is looking them square in the face.

Sorry if this sounds harsh but it is the truth. La Nina conditions were in the making months ago and they basically sat on their hands. Their job is to forecast and they need to quit being afraid of being wrong.

Why call it an outlook when it's already here. The Pacific NW should have been aware of these La Nina condtions a while back.



Jim

[weatherlover427]

This is a shame. More drought out west and more hurricanes in the Atlantic. Just what we don't need.

[Jim Hughes]

This is a shame. More drought out west and more hurricanes in the Atlantic. Just what we don't need.

Your right it is a little worrisome but the one bright side is the PDO is not in phase with it. It seems tilted to neutral and maybe even a slight positive phase is trying to show up. Not to sure what this means in the long run. I need to clear the cobwebs and look over things better. I have currently been on a hiatus from all types of weather forecasting....needed to get away from it for a while. To stressful for my liking......


Jim

[cycloneye]

WOW looks like LA nina is coming!!!! That means a strong Cape Verde season....Also means this season should looks like 2004 or maybe more like 1995.

If La Nina hangs on until the summer months it will guarantee another active Atlantic Hurricane season.The question is how active the 2006 season will be with La Nina conditions and then looking at the other parameters how they will be some favorable and others not.A bad scenario for the 2006 season would be a perfect combination of La Nina to Neutral ENSO conditions,Warmer than average sst's in the Atlantic,Lower than average low pressures.Which of those parameters will be favorable or not when the summer months roll in? We will know by then what pattern shapes up so let's continue to watch how all the factors evolve in the next 6 months.

[windycity]

its hard for me to read the sst charts.What are the sst compaired to 04 or 05? Are they still above normal? What about the burmuda high? I know i ask olot of questions ,sorry!!!!

[cycloneye]

Above are two loops of the most recent La Nina events.1988-1989,1998-1999.

[Scorpion]

Interesting that in total number of storms 96, 98, and 99 were not very impressive, at least compared to 04 which was weak Nino. I thought La Nina raised the number of named storms.

[cycloneye]

Interesting that in total number of storms 96, 98, and 99 were not very impressive, at least compared to 04 which was weak Nino. I thought La Nina raised the number of named storms.

Yes La Nina is a big factor in terms of active Atlantic hurricane seasons.However also shows that not necessary La Nina is a cause for much more Atlantic Hurricane activity but other factors are the ones that make a season be very active or not.

[NCHurricane]

2004 was actually weakly el ninoish

1996 was la ninish, as were 1998 and 1999


NC took it hard those seasons

Thanks for the reminder, Mr. Orrt.

I hope this doesn't hold true this year though.

[Derek Ortt]

la nina tends to yield a higher percentage of major hurricanes (NOT QBO)

[mike815]

yes it does thats what i dont like may not be as many storms as 05 but a lot more very nasty major storms.

[JonathanBelles]

everytime i turn around it sound like theres worse news

[HurricaneJoe22]

yea, it's called life

[mike815]

yeah i know what u mean it seems to get worse all the time.

[AussieMark]

Look at 1999

12 named storms
8 hurricanes
5 major hurricanes

about 66.67% of named storms in 1999 became hurricanes
about 62.5% of hurricanes in 1999 became majors

[JonathanBelles]

ouch