Dooms day hurricane Miami...(My thinking)

[HouTXmetro]

Nothing is impossible, but a Cat 5 making landfall in any portion of the Gulf Coast (aside from the west coast of Florida and Mexico) is pretty hard to achieve. Reason, a cane traveling north or northwest is unfavorable for hurricanes to maintain their intensity, since most shear is from a westerly or southwesterly direction, meaning that the shear vector is perpedicular to the storm motion vector, enhancing its negative effects. Add in low Heat Content and dry continental air being entrained into a hurricane's circulation and it's no wonder why hurricanes struggle in the north and northwest GOM so much.

Normandy, Carla peaked at Cat 5 right before making landfall, so it was weakening as it was making landfall.

I agree. Even if you have a perfect shear environment the low heat content and dry air entrainment is enough to knock them down a notch. We saw this with Katrina (per the NHC) when her north western side started to take on some dry air prior to landfall. Not saying it can't happen but there is a reason why only 4 cat5's have made landfall in the US. Even that could be argued.

Let's say there was Upper low/ disturbance in advance of an approaching Hurricane. Would the moisture already inplace help to minimize dry air entrapment?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nothing is impossible, but a Cat 5 making landfall in any portion of the Gulf Coast (aside from the west coast of Florida and Mexico) is pretty hard to achieve. Reason, a cane traveling north or northwest is unfavorable for hurricanes to maintain their intensity, since most shear is from a westerly or southwesterly direction, meaning that the shear vector is perpedicular to the storm motion vector, enhancing its negative effects. Add in low Heat Content and dry continental air being entrained into a hurricane's circulation and it's no wonder why hurricanes struggle in the north and northwest GOM so much.

Normandy, Carla peaked at Cat 5 right before making landfall, so it was weakening as it was making landfall.

I agree. Even if you have a perfect shear environment the low heat content and dry air entrainment is enough to knock them down a notch. We saw this with Katrina (per the NHC) when her north western side started to take on some dry air prior to landfall. Not saying it can't happen but there is a reason why only 4 cat5's have made landfall in the US. Even that could be argued.

The only cat. 5's I can think of that made a US landfall are Andrew, Camille, and the Labor day storm. What was the 4th? Katrina? Katrina was only a Cat. 3 at landfall. But anyways, those three may be the only to hit in the last 100-150 years, but really that is just scratching the surface. What about the prior thousands, millions, or even billions of years. Supposedly during the earth's last warming trend, cat. 5 intensity storms would have been quite common. Could we be heading towards a similar period. Either way...it does not take a Cat. 5 to destroy an area...as we saw, Katrina a Cat. 3 devastated the gulf coast and Rita a cat. 3 washed away miles of once beautiful beach. Even a strong Cat. 3 (lets say 125mph) moving at 25mph would still be powerful enough (if a good eyewall structure) to bring Cat. 1/2 force winds to much of the Houston metro with gusts over 110mph likely. Anything over a strong Cat. 2 making landfall on the upper Texas coast and moving quickly inland towards Houston would bring hurricane force winds to Houston (at least in gusts).

[cajungal]

Well, I hope that never, ever comes to play! August 26th is the day Andrew hit us here in Louisiana after crossing Homestead. Several times that a Hurricane hit south Florida, they hit us in Louisiana after. Betsy- Key Largo, then Grand Isle, LA. Andrew-Homestead, then Morgan City, LA. Katrina- Ft.Lauderdale, then Buras, LA.
At the beginning of the 2005 season, we were discussing the Katrina scenerio and you know it actually came to play. The 2005 hurricane season made me sick and this is my first time posting on the tropical forum in months! I hope 2006 in nothing like 2005 for the Gulf Coast!

[cajungal]

Floydbuster forecasted near the start of the 2005 season that a hurricane was going to hit New orleans. Not more then 3 months later it happen. I'm just saying.

I forecasted the same thing. I mentioned it in chat one night only about 2 weeks before Katrina hit, and everyone got mad at me. It was a gut feeling. Just knew that New Orleans would get hit near the 40 year anniversary of Betsy. Just like the gut feeling that said that Rita would not hit Houston. Gut feeling said TX/LA border.

[HouTXmetro]

Floydbuster forecasted near the start of the 2005 season that a hurricane was going to hit New orleans. Not more then 3 months later it happen. I'm just saying.

I forecasted the same thing. I mentioned it in chat one night only about 2 weeks before Katrina hit, and everyone got mad at me. It was a gut feeling. Just knew that New Orleans would get hit near the 40 year anniversary of Betsy. Just like the gut feeling that said that Rita would not hit Houston. Gut feeling said TX/LA border.

what does your gutt tell you about this season? Who will be hit by a major hurricane

[cajungal]

I really don't know right now. It is January and I have not really been focused on hurricane season. I am trying to take a break after the horrible 2005 season. This is the first time I even went to the tropical forum in a very long time. I am thinking another North Carolina hurricane. Then, another hurricane hit around Key Largo, Fl, second hit possibly around the Morgan City, LA area around Labor Day weekend. These are just hunches. I just hope that nobody gets hit, but chances are somebody will be affected once again.

[wxmann_91]

Nothing is impossible, but a Cat 5 making landfall in any portion of the Gulf Coast (aside from the west coast of Florida and Mexico) is pretty hard to achieve. Reason, a cane traveling north or northwest is unfavorable for hurricanes to maintain their intensity, since most shear is from a westerly or southwesterly direction, meaning that the shear vector is perpedicular to the storm motion vector, enhancing its negative effects. Add in low Heat Content and dry continental air being entrained into a hurricane's circulation and it's no wonder why hurricanes struggle in the north and northwest GOM so much.

Normandy, Carla peaked at Cat 5 right before making landfall, so it was weakening as it was making landfall.

I agree. Even if you have a perfect shear environment the low heat content and dry air entrainment is enough to knock them down a notch. We saw this with Katrina (per the NHC) when her north western side started to take on some dry air prior to landfall. Not saying it can't happen but there is a reason why only 4 cat5's have made landfall in the US. Even that could be argued.

Let's say there was Upper low/ disturbance in advance of an approaching Hurricane. Would the moisture already inplace help to minimize dry air entrapment?

If and only a hurricane was moving west and the upper-low was moving as fast or faster than the hurricane.

[Jim Cantore]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

am I mistaken or hasnt Miami been hit by a cat 5 before?

[Extremeweatherguy]

How could there be 400,000 deaths in Miami when in 2004 only 379,724 people lived in Miami.

I do not doubt though that if Miami were to get the north quadrant of a cat 5 some high-rises would collapse. More realistically let's suppose a hurricane makes landfall at Miami with a pressure of 900mb. Camille made landfall with 905mb and Miami seems more condusive for a low landfall pressure. Second to the Keys Miami is probably the second most likely place in the US to see a landfall pressure that low. In my opinon a worst case system would be a large one resembling Katrina or Rita at their peak intensity ~ 900mb with 175mph winds. In this scenario damage I think would be at least 150 billion. Needless to say it would be bad and I think more expensive than Katrina. Keeping in mind Katrina and Andrew I really can't see ANY way how the death toll could be 400,000 (In Florida even). I hope I'm right that there is no possible way the death toll from a worst case Miami hurricane would exceed 5,000. I must admit though that high-rise collapse makes me extremely nervous. Wouldn't most people no longer be in them? Is anybody familiar with Miami evacuation procedure? Are people in the downtown high-rises told to go some where, I'm not sure on this one.

I think that greatest potential for loss of life would be with a Labor Day repeat (extremely rapid intensification) since there is no where to go on the Keys and people would have little warning. Another teriffying prospect is the St. Pete area being hit with a 25+ foot surge. When it comes to loss of life surge beats wind hands down. However, when it comes to cost Miami-Dade is the biggest potential disaster I think.

am I mistaken or hasnt Miami been hit by a cat 5 before?

no. Andrew actually hit south of Miami and it's Cat. 5 wind were in such an extremly small pocket that they would have only been felt at the extreme coast and only in a very small area. Most of the hard hit area south of Miami saw Cat. 3/4 winds...but in the actual city of Miami they only saw Cat. 1/2 winds during Andrew...so really, because of Andrew's size, they dodged a bullet so to speak.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1926 Miami hurricane cat5.

[Extremeweatherguy]

1926 Miami hurricane cat5.

no that was actually a Cat. 4...plus it once again hit south Miami. Also, in 1926 the population was much lower, without all the skyscrapers, so the dooms day scenario would not have been possible then.

Here is a link on the 1926 hurricane:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Miami_Hurricane

[Jim Cantore]

I made tracks for doomsday storms

heres a simalar one to yours




this would be a horrible storm indeed

[Derek Ortt]

the 1926 hurricane did hit the city of Miami.

The eye crossed the coast in Coconut Grove, the southern part of the city, placing the worst of the winds in the center of the city

[ROCK]

Nothing is impossible, but a Cat 5 making landfall in any portion of the Gulf Coast (aside from the west coast of Florida and Mexico) is pretty hard to achieve. Reason, a cane traveling north or northwest is unfavorable for hurricanes to maintain their intensity, since most shear is from a westerly or southwesterly direction, meaning that the shear vector is perpedicular to the storm motion vector, enhancing its negative effects. Add in low Heat Content and dry continental air being entrained into a hurricane's circulation and it's no wonder why hurricanes struggle in the north and northwest GOM so much.

Normandy, Carla peaked at Cat 5 right before making landfall, so it was weakening as it was making landfall.

I agree. Even if you have a perfect shear environment the low heat content and dry air entrainment is enough to knock them down a notch. We saw this with Katrina (per the NHC) when her north western side started to take on some dry air prior to landfall. Not saying it can't happen but there is a reason why only 4 cat5's have made landfall in the US. Even that could be argued.

The only cat. 5's I can think of that made a US landfall are Andrew, Camille, and the Labor day storm. What was the 4th? Katrina? Katrina was only a Cat. 3 at landfall. But anyways, those three may be the only to hit in the last 100-150 years, but really that is just scratching the surface. What about the prior thousands, millions, or even billions of years. Supposedly during the earth's last warming trend, cat. 5 intensity storms would have been quite common. Could we be heading towards a similar period. Either way...it does not take a Cat. 5 to destroy an area...as we saw, Katrina a Cat. 3 devastated the gulf coast and Rita a cat. 3 washed away miles of once beautiful beach. Even a strong Cat. 3 (lets say 125mph) moving at 25mph would still be powerful enough (if a good eyewall structure) to bring Cat. 1/2 force winds to much of the Houston metro with gusts over 110mph likely. Anything over a strong Cat. 2 making landfall on the upper Texas coast and moving quickly inland towards Houston would bring hurricane force winds to Houston (at least in gusts).

You are right "officially" 3 have hit the US (per the NHC) and I realize Katrina was not a 5. HOWEVER, it could be argued ( and I think you support the argument) that there is a possilblity that more than 3 cat5 have hit the US mainland over the years. Furthermore, I am not in the least downplaying a cat 3. I have seen their wind and surge damage and its not pretty but I digress. The point of my response was to point out the fact that only a few cat 5 ever make landfall because?? You need almost perfect conditions all the way up to the coast. Favorable shear environment, high SST's, moving fairly fast, ect ect. Like I said there is a reason why we dont see more cat 5 landfalls.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the 1926 hurricane did hit the city of Miami.

The eye crossed the coast in Coconut Grove, the southern part of the city, placing the worst of the winds in the center of the city

Ok, yes you are right..the strongest winds did hit downtown...but back in the 20's Miami was not the city of today, so to say that the doomsday scenario has already happened is not accurate. Now if the same storm were to hit in 2006, then yes it would be the doomsday scenario. According to wikipedia; if the same storm were to hit Miami today, then damage would top 98 billion dollars! And the 26' storm was only a Cat. 4! Imagine what a direct Cat. 5 hit (on downtown Miami) would do!

[Derek Ortt]

plus, that 1926 hurricane scored a direct hit on Pensacola as well, devastating the city more so than even Ivan did (maybe not the beaches since Ivan practically levelled those areas)