0z GFS VERY intresting

#121 Postby **gboudx** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:44 pm

Portastorm, the DFW NWS broached that idea in this morning's AFD. Since they mention it, I think it has credibility because they have been very hesitant to jump on any precip for the DFW CWA lately.

I just know that one day I will wake up, go to the DFW NWS website and not see any kind of Fire Danger/Red Flag Warning/Fire Statement for my area.

#122 Postby **Portastorm** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:48 pm

gboudx wrote:Portastorm, the DFW NWS broached that idea in this morning's AFD. Since they mention it, I think it has credibility because they have been very hesitant to jump on any precip for the DFW CWA lately.

I just know that one day I will wake up, go to the DFW NWS website and not see any kind of Fire Danger/Red Flag Warning/Fire Statement for my area.

Yes gboudx, I did see that as well and DFW's discussion primed my interest in checking out the ensembles.

I hope that "one day" for you (and us) comes sooner rather than later!!

Johnny · #123 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 1:49 pm

So what is JB saying now? I'm sure he is backing off a bit his pattern ideas?

#124 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 2:26 pm

12z euro finally came around today...MEGA trof at 144 and 168..hope for TX

Extremeweatherguy · #125 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 4:17 pm

deltadog03 wrote:12z euro finally came around today...MEGA trof at 144 and 168..hope for TX

Also, the GFS had been on a warming trend...but now is back on a cooling trend for the next 15 days. Looks like we could be back to normal or below normal temps. starting next week and continuing through January. The biggest concern is in the next few days. Looks like a "chance" of severe weather on Thursday and Friday, but the cooling behind the front looks tricky. The Euro shows lots of cooling, while the GFS is modest. I will make a prediction of at least one day below 60 this upcoming weekend. BTW, The NWS is forecasting a freeze for Northern and NW Houston tonight (First in a long time)!

Extremeweatherguy · #126 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 4:19 pm

Johnny wrote:So what is JB saying now? I'm sure he is backing off a bit his pattern ideas?

No, he still expects a cooler and wetter pattern to develop over TX in the next 2 weeks. Looking at some of this afternoon's model runs...he may just be right.

#127 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 4:31 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:12z euro finally came around today...MEGA trof at 144 and 168..hope for TX

Also, the GFS had been on a warming trend...but now is back on a cooling trend for the next 15 days. Looks like we could be back to normal or below normal temps. starting next week and continuing through January. The biggest concern is in the next few days. Looks like a "chance" of severe weather on Thursday and Friday, but the cooling behind the front looks tricky. The Euro shows lots of cooling, while the GFS is modest. I will make a prediction of at least one day below 60 this upcoming weekend. BTW, The NWS is forecasting a freeze for Northern and NW Houston tonight (First in a long time)!

Crapola! 31 is now my forecasted low. I'll be covering the plants tonight. Not fun for me.

#128 Postby **Air Force Met** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 5:28 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Crapola! 31 is now my forecasted low. I'll be covering the plants tonight. Not fun for me.

Very nice day outside...just got back from a nice walk...45 minutes and hardly any sweat :wink:

Just wish we would have picked up a little more rain this morning.

#129 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 7:08 pm

Yes, today was indeed a beautiful day :-)

I'll we watching the thermometer tonite though.

Very odd - DFW's forecasted low is 36. Above freezing for almost all the DFW CWA. IAH's forecasted low is also 36. Yet the pinpoint forecast for my zipcode is 31. I normally run 1 degree below IAH on calm, clear nights, but that's not what they have for tonite. We'll see...

Extremeweatherguy · #130 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 7:30 pm

jschlitz wrote:Yes, today was indeed a beautiful day I'll we watching the thermometer tonite though.

Very odd - DFW's forecasted low is 36. Above freezing for almost all the DFW CWA. IAH's forecasted low is also 36. Yet the pinpoint forecast for my zipcode is 31. I normally run 1 degree below IAH on calm, clear nights, but that's not what they have for tonite. We'll see...

Yeah, I noticed that too. The problem for me though is that I usually run 4-6 degrees below what IAH is recording on cold nights, which means it looks like my backyard will be getting a freeze regardless. I think my backyard is in a small cold pocket...it always seems to be colder than areas around it. I will have frost and be 36 sometimes in my backyard when it is 41 at IAH...this only occurs to nights when we get good radiative cooling...on nights when we see an advective freeze...I am usually only 1 degree below IAH. Tonight looks like a radiative cooling night though.

Extremeweatherguy · #131 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 8:14 pm

JB thinks models are way underdone with the cold next week. He thinks that the coldest airmass since early December makes it all the way to south Texas next week. we'll see..

UPDATE: The last few GFS runs have began to trend back colder with next weeks cold front and associated arctic origin air. If JB is right though...it is still way to warm...but at the very least the GFS looks to support highs below 60 on Tuesday the 17th. Latest Euro also shows a similar scenario...may be even a little colder.

#132 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 10:05 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Yes, today was indeed a beautiful day I'll we watching the thermometer tonite though.

Very odd - DFW's forecasted low is 36. Above freezing for almost all the DFW CWA. IAH's forecasted low is also 36. Yet the pinpoint forecast for my zipcode is 31. I normally run 1 degree below IAH on calm, clear nights, but that's not what they have for tonite. We'll see...

Yeah, I noticed that too. The problem for me though is that I usually run 4-6 degrees below what IAH is recording on cold nights, which means it looks like my backyard will be getting a freeze regardless. I think my backyard is in a small cold pocket...it always seems to be colder than areas around it. I will have frost and be 36 sometimes in my backyard when it is 41 at IAH...this only occurs to nights when we get good radiative cooling...on nights when we see an advective freeze...I am usually only 1 degree below IAH. Tonight looks like a radiative cooling night though.

Well, here is the latest:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CLR SKIES OVER SE TX THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ONLY CHG FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

Time to go cover my hibiscus plants. At least I don't need to worry about the Majesty Palms.

One thing I don't quite get though. The dewpoint is 36 and the wind is calm. Some drier air will need to filter in from somewhere/somehow or it can't get below the mid 30's. I wonder why they are forecasting low 30's with the dewpoint that high.

Extremeweatherguy · #133 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 10:11 pm

jschlitz wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
jschlitz wrote:Yes, today was indeed a beautiful day I'll we watching the thermometer tonite though.

Very odd - DFW's forecasted low is 36. Above freezing for almost all the DFW CWA. IAH's forecasted low is also 36. Yet the pinpoint forecast for my zipcode is 31. I normally run 1 degree below IAH on calm, clear nights, but that's not what they have for tonite. We'll see...

Yeah, I noticed that too. The problem for me though is that I usually run 4-6 degrees below what IAH is recording on cold nights, which means it looks like my backyard will be getting a freeze regardless. I think my backyard is in a small cold pocket...it always seems to be colder than areas around it. I will have frost and be 36 sometimes in my backyard when it is 41 at IAH...this only occurs to nights when we get good radiative cooling...on nights when we see an advective freeze...I am usually only 1 degree below IAH. Tonight looks like a radiative cooling night though.

Well, here is the latest:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
900 PM CST TUE JAN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CLR SKIES OVER SE TX THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ONLY CHG FOR THE UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER MIN TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

Time to go cover my hibiscus plants. At least I don't need to worry about the Majesty Palms.

One thing I don't quite get though. The dewpoint is 36 and the wind is calm. Some drier air will need to filter in from somewhere/somehow or it can't get below the mid 30's. I wonder why they are forecasting low 30's with the dewpoint that high.

just checked and it is 38 degrees in my backyard right now. I expect that I am around 30 at sunrise...with 32 at Hooks and 33 at IAH. Would not be surprised to even see 32 at IAH though. This freeze kind of snuck up on us. It was not expected until about 6 hrs. ago. This will be the first freeze in weeks.

ALSO: I have seen dewpoints that high in the evening sometimes and then I wake up and it is much lower. I think what happens is that the temp. tends to repidly drop to that dewpoint, and then after that, they begin to slowly decend together. Usually in this type of situation..4-6 degrees is the most the temp. will fall past the dewpoint on a great radiational cooling night (unless more dry air is filtered in). I guess we will see...

Johnny · #134 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 10:30 pm

36 here in Conroe at the present time (9:30 pm). I do expect to hit the freezing mark since it is a bit colder right now than it was last Friday night at this time. We got down to 30 this past Saturday morning. We will see if JB is right or not but I'd like to know where he thinks this cold is coming from?

Extremeweatherguy · #135 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Jan 10, 2006 11:33 pm

Johnny wrote:36 here in Conroe at the present time (9:30 pm). I do expect to hit the freezing mark since it is a bit colder right now than it was last Friday night at this time. We got down to 30 this past Saturday morning. We will see if JB is right or not but I'd like to know where he thinks this cold is coming from?

well cold air is starting to spill into Alaska and Canada and many models now show significant cooling in both regions over the next 2 weeks. Tonights Euro run shows a good temp. drop over Alaska between today and a week from now. This is certainly possible, because the other side of the world (Aisa and Europe) are seeing their coldest winter in years. over 40 feet of snow are in some places of China and New Dehli is seeing thier first freeze in 70 years. If this kind of cold teloconnects to the US, then we may be in for quite a cold end to January.

Extremeweatherguy · #136 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 7:52 am

my forecast for last night was pretty much right on. It is 30 at my house this morning with lots of frost, and it is 32 at Hooks and 34 (but may drop to 33 at 7am) at IAH. This is the coldest morning in weeks, and I will actually have to wear a jacket to begin the day. This afternoon though we warm into the upper 60s and it feels nice. Also wanted to point out that this morning we are colder than Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Boston.

#137 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 8:08 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:my forecast for last night was pretty much right on. It is 30 at my house this morning with lots of frost, and it is 32 at Hooks and 34 (but may drop to 33 at 7am) at IAH. This is the coldest morning in weeks, and I will actually have to wear a jacket to begin the day. This afternoon though we warm into the upper 60s and it feels nice. Also wanted to point out that this morning we are colder than Chicago, Dallas, St. Louis, Denver and Boston.

Are you near a field? Even though I am all the way down in Angleton, I run about the same as IAH as far as lows are concerned when radiational cooling is involved due to the fact I am near a cow pasture. Matter of fact, this morning...I was colder. We were 32 at the house...LBX was 30....they are in the middle of the woods with fields on either side.

Johnny · #138 Postby **Johnny** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:01 am

At 8 a.m. it was 29 degrees at my house in central Montgomery County. It MIGHT of been a degree cooler around 7 a.m....nothing all that unusual. When I think of cold here in Southeast, Texas...it brings me back to the short cold snap back in early December. Thick cloud cover, strong wind out of the north/northwest, and temperatures struggling to get out of the low to mid 30's. Like I tell my wife...if it's gonna get cold, that's what I consider cold. When you have to have ideal rediational cooling to get temperatures down to near or just below freezing, man, that stuff is for the birds! :Pick:

lol

Seriously, I love windy and cloudy days where the temperatures hold in the 30's or 40's. We've had a couple of days like that this winter and that is winter weather for us here in Southeast, Texas. I'd like to see a few more days like that before winter is done with this year. If it's not gonna happen I say the heck with it...bring on spring and the severe weather! :slime:

I'm ready to get my garden put in anyways.

Speaking of severe weather it's looking like Sunday and into Monday parameters seem to be coming together for a little taste of it.

#139 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:10 am

Johnny wrote: When you have to have ideal rediational cooling to get temperatures down to near or just below freezing, man, that stuff is for the birds! lol

Exactly. When you are dry as a bone...clear as a bell and calm as a...well...calm...

you can cool down easily.

Cold to me is when it's cloudy and windy...and is 30's all day...kinda like what you said. Throw in some drizzle and it's all good. I live for those days. Stick me in a deer stand with a cup of coffee and it's even better.

Kelarie · #140 Postby **Kelarie** » Wed Jan 11, 2006 11:23 am

Air Force Met wrote:
Johnny wrote: When you have to have ideal rediational cooling to get temperatures down to near or just below freezing, man, that stuff is for the birds! lol

Exactly. When you are dry as a bone...clear as a bell and calm as a...well...calm... you can cool down easily.

Cold to me is when it's cloudy and windy...and is 30's all day...kinda like what you said. Throw in some drizzle and it's all good. I live for those days. Stick me in a deer stand with a cup of coffee and it's even better.

Actually stick my hubby to be in a deer stand in that kinda weather, and me in the house....oh yeah. Those are the days, I am nice and cozy and he is cold and watching for those wise ole bucks... :wink:

0z GFS VERY intresting

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