Tasman Sea: TC Tam

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 06/2255 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 15S 179.5E AT 062100 UTC
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTSOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, QUIKSCAT AND MTSAT IR/VIS. SST IS
AROUND 29C.

04F IS LOCATED UNDER THE 250 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS IS SUSTAINING
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC, ALTHOUGH IT IS
STILL DISORGANISED AT THIS STAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS LOW OVER THE
SYSTEM. NO APPRECIABLE SURGES ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN 04F FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CAPTURED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE
04F IN A WESTSOUTHWEST DIRECTION INTO MODERATE SHEAR WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. POTENTIAL FO 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

07/0233 UTC 14.5S 178.6W T1.0/1.0 98P

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 07/1042 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1006HPA] NEAR 15S 179.0E AT 070600 UTC AND
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTSOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, QUIKSCAT AND MTSAT IR. SST IS AROUND
29C.

04F LIES IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF UPPER 250HPA RIDGE
AXIS. THERE IS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MIMIMAL SHEAR [CIMMS]. HOWEVER,
MODERATE SHEAR GRADIENT EXIST SOUTH OF 15S. GLOBAL MODELS
[GFS,UKGC]ARE SLOWLY MOVING THE SYSTEM WESTSOUTHWEST. POTENTIAL FOR
04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 07/2321 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 15S 178.9E AT 072100 UTC AND
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTSOUTHWEST. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT
VIS/EIR, LATEST SSM/I DATA AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST
IS AROUND 29C.

CONVECTION AROUND 04F HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE PAST 12
HOURS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE
WESTERN QUARDRANTS. 04F LIES IN A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF
UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER MIMIMAL SHEAR [CIMMS].
HOWEVER, MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR GRADIENT EXIST SOUTH AND WEST OF
04F.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM BUT SHOWS NO SIGNIFICNAT
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED WESTWARDS. POTENTIAL
FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

Definitely looks a bit sheared:

07/2033 UTC 14.9S 178.9E T1.5/1.5 98P

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.0S 179.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION OVER
AN INCREASINGLY WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 08/0852 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1002HPA] NEAR 14.6S 177.3E AT 080600 UTC
CURRENTLY SLOW MOVING BUT EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST. POSITION POOR AND
BASED ON MTSAT EIR, RECENT AMSRE PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29C.

CONVECTION AROUND 04F HAS WANED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, INDICATING
DURNAL INFLUENCES ARE DOMINANT AT THIS STAGE. DVORAK ANALYSIS GIVES A
WRAP OF 0.2 BASED ON A SPIRAL BAND PATTERN RESULTING IN
T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12HRS. 04F REMAINS IN A DIFFLUENT REGION JUST SOUTH OF
THE UPPER 250HPA RIDGE AXIS. SYSTEM IS SHEARED AND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WESTERLY TRACK.
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON STEERING THE SYSTEM WESTWARDS WITH LITTLE
DEVELOPENT. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

08/1433 UTC 14.9S 179.0E TOO WEAK 98S

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S
179.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.0E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CURRENT
AND FORECAST ENVIRONMENT OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

I think they meant 98P here.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Lookin cloudy in that sat image

[Coredesat]

Looks like it's dead:

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 09/0913 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTRURBANCE 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 14.5S 175.5E AT 090600 UTC
MOVING WEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT IR, RECENT TMI
PASS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29C.

SYSTEM HAS LOST DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION IT HAD 24 TO 36
HOURS AGO. GLOBAL MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM WEST OR NORTHWEST IN THE
SHORT TERM WITHOUT ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND 48 HOURS, MODELS MOVE 04F
EASTWARDS AND CHANCES ARE THAT IT MAY EVOLVE INTO A DEEPER SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 09/2319 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTRURBANCE 04F [1004HPA] NEAR 13S 175E AT 091800 UTC
MOVING WEST NORTHWEST 05 KNOTS. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT
IR/VIS AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29C.

SYSTEM HAS PUSHED NORTH TOWARDS THE CONVERGENCE ZONE RE-ATTACHING TO
THE CZ. DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING 04F REMAIN DISORGANIZED. 04F IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND MINIMAL SHEAR
WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS STEER THE
SYSTEM SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[Coredesat]

It seems to be indiscernable from the ITCZ convection:

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 179.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF SUVA, FIJI HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO
LONGER CONSIDERED SUSPECT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 10/2332 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1001HPA] NEAR 13S 175E AT 102100 UTC SLOW
MOVING. POSITION POOR AND BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST IS AROUND 29-30C. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
ERUPTED TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT LLCC IN THE LAST 12 HOURS. WARM
MOIST TROPICAL AIR IS FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH, WHILE A
LOW LEVEL SURGE FROM THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MINIMAL SHEAR TOGETHER WTH GOOD UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ARE EXPECTED TO AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL
MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH
INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW AND MODERATE THEREAFTER.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN TD 05!

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/0923 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [1001HPA] NEAR 13.5S 178.0E AT 110600 UTC
MOVING SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT IR/VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITHIN 120NM OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION PAST 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. DEEP CONVECTION UNDER
DIURNAL INFLUENCE. 04F LIES UNDER 20-30KT NW WINDS AT 250HPA. SHEAR
DECREASING OVER SYSTEM. 850 HPA VORTICITY INCREASING AS WELL. SST IS
AROUND 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY TOWARDS
SOUTHEAST WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. POTENTIAL FOR 04F TO DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

[P.K.]

GALE WARNING 001 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/1924 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F [999HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 179.9W AT 111800
UTC.
DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A1 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2020 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F centre [999hPa] centre was located near 14.2S
179.9W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving
southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre
estimated at about 25 to 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots
within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

System was sheared overnight. LLCC located northwest edge of
developing CDO. Organisation improved past 24 hours. However, deep
convection still remain disjointed. Shear over depression increasing
especially to south. SST around 29C. 04F lies under divergent flow
but moving into 30 to 40-knot northwest wind region at 250hpa.
Depression currently steered by mid-level westerlies and expected to
gradually turn south in the next 48 hours. Global models move the
depression southeast and later south with moderate intensification.
Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate to good.


The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued
around 120200 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A2 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0222 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 04F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 14.5S
178.8W at 120000 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR/VIS imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving
east-southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots
within 60 nautical miles of centre in the next 12 to 24 hours.

04F remains sheared. LLCC located about 30-40nm to northwest of deep
convection. Organisation steady past 12 hours. Primary bands struggle
to wrap around llcc. Shear is increasing over depression. Dvorak
analysis yields T2.0/2.0/S0.0/12hrs. Deep convection continually
being eroded. SST around 29C. 04F is moving into 30 to 40-knot
northwest wind region at 250hpa. Depression currently steered by
mid-level westerlies and expected to gradually turn south in the next
48 hours. Consensus track moves the depression gradually southeast
and later south with decreasing chances of further intensification.
Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is moderate.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 04F will be issued
around 120800 UTC.


12/0252 UTC 14.5S 177.9W T2.0/2.0 99P -- South Pacific Ocean

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE PRETTY CLOSE IN REACHING TS STATUS!

[HurricaneBill]

BTW, the next name on the SPAC list is "Tam".

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number A3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0800 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Cyclone TAM centre [991hPa] was located near 14.7 South
177.3 West at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR MTSAT/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Cyclone moving east at
about 15 knots and expected to curve eastsoutheast in the next 12 to
24 hours. Cyclone intensifying. Maximum 10-minute average winds near
the centre estimated at about 35 to 40 knots, over 33 knots within 90
miles of the centre in the sector from north through south to
southwest and within 60 miles of centre elsewhere.

Deep convection has erupted close to the LLCC in the last 6 hours,
while primary band to the east continues to feed into system. Dvorak
analysis based on a .55 wrap gives a DT=2.5, MET=3.0 and PAT=2.5. FT
based on MET yields T2.5/1.0/D1.0/24hrs. SST around 29C. CIMSS
indicates 10 to 15 knots shear over the cyclone. Resultant shear
amounts to minimal over the cyclone. Shear tendency is on a
decreasing trend to the south and east of Tam according to CIMSS and
Tam is likely to maintain its intensity as it steers gradually
southeastwards by deep environmental northwesterlies in the next 24
hours.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical Cyclone TAM will
be issued around 121400 UTC.