South Pacific: TD 05

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 10/2332 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] NEAR 15.2S 169.0W AT 102100 UTC
MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR AND BASED ON PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS AND GOESSTH/VIS WITH ANIMATION. SST IN THE AREA IS
ABOUT 29C. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LLCC AND DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRE. CIMMS INDICATES 20
KNOTS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SHEAR INCREASES TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS
FURTHER SOUTH. EXTENSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ASSISTING PRESSURE FALLS
AT THE SURFACE. GLOBAL MODELS CURVE 05F SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR
05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW TO MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[JonathanBelles]

where did u find this information?

[P.K.]

lol, I only checked that a few minutes ago and there was nothing there.

[JonathanBelles]

do they even have a classification for TD's in the south pacific?
what is the south pacific cyone center website?

[P.K.]

The classifications are; tropical depression, tropical cyclone(gale), tropical cyclone(storm), tropical cyclone(hurricane).

The Fiji Met Service cover the SW Pacific, their website is http://www.met.gov.fj/advisories.html.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They seem to have a lower standard for upgrading depressions. They almost hardly this year been upgraded farther. Lets see if this one can do it.

[P.K.]

They seem to have a lower standard for upgrading depressions.

Than who? They use 10 minute averages like Meteo-France, the IMD, and the JMA.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There is no t numbers out of Sab or any...I will take a closer look at the system.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is supposed to be the quickscat they have centered over it. We will watch to see if it develops a LLC!

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _sh_0.html

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

That is a very sheared, But we will see if it can get a central core.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/0923 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] NEAR 15.5S 169.0W AT 110600 UTC
MOVING SOUTHEAST 7 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-10 HR IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. 10-MINUTE
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITHIN 120NM OF CENTRE.

ORGANISATION POOR PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION SLOWLY REDEVELOPING
ABOUT LLCC, WHICH WAS EXPOSED DURING DAY TIME. SST IN THE AREA IS
ABOUT 29C. NW WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS PERSIST OVER 05F. SHEAR
MODERATE. VORTICITY REMAINS STRONG AT 850HPA. GLOBAL MODELS CURVE 05F
SOUTHWARDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR 05F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOW TO
MODERATE.

[P.K.]

Gale Warning 002 issued from RSMC NADI Jan 11/1945 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [997HPA] CENTRE WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4S 168.5W
AT 111800 UTC. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHEAST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR.
EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES OF CENTRE
ELSEWHERE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND
REPORTS EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS.
OTHER VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B1 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 11/2036 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [997hPa] centre was located near 18.4S
168.5W at 111800 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR/VIS
imagery with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression
moving southeast 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the
centre estimated at about 30 knots possibly increasing to 35 knots
within 90 nautical miles of centre in the eastern semicircle and 60
miles of centre elsewhere in the next 12 to 24 hours.

05F remais sheared. LLCC located to west of deep convection. Latest
satellite imagery indicates possibility of llcc moving under deep
convection. However, shear is increasing to east and south. SST
around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 30 to 45-kt northwest winds at
250hpa. Depression currently steered southward by mid-level ridge to
the southeast. Outflow fair to east but poor elsewhere. Global models
are moving the depression more southwest with minimal
intensification. Potential for 04F to develop into a tropical cyclone
in the next 24 hours is low to moderate.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued
around 120230 UTC.

[P.K.]

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B3 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/0816 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.3S
170.0W at 120600 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving
westsouthwest 10 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35
knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle.

LLCC lies exposed and deep convection is displaced about half a
degree to the southeast. SST around 28 to 29C. 05F lies under 45
knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the
system is 30-40 knots. Depression currently steered southwest by
mid-level ridge to the southeast. Global models are moving the
depression further south with lesser chances of intensification.
Potential for 05F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24
hours is low.

The next Tropical Disturbance Advisory on TD 05F will be issued
around 121430 UTC.

[Coredesat]

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2S
168.8W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3S 168.8W, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED, HOWEVER CONVECTION PERSISTS ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO
HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASING 850 MB VORTICITY AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR.

12/0852 UTC 20.3S 170.6W T1.0/1.0 90P

[P.K.]

Final advisory.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory Number B4 issued from RSMC NADI
Jan 12/1422 UTC 2006 UTC.

Tropical Depression 05F centre [996hPa] centre was located near 20.7S
169.7W at 121200 UTC. Position poor based on HR GOES-10/EIR imagery
with animation and peripheral surface reports. Depression moving
southsoutheast 15 knots. Maximum 10-minute average winds 30 to 35
knots within 60 to 240 miles of centre in the southeastern
semicircle.

LLCC is well exposed and deep convection which was displaced to the
southeast has been blown away strong northwesterlies. 05F lies under
50 knot northwest winds at 250hpa and environmental shear over the
system is increasing to 40-50 knots. Global models move the
depression further south without further intensification.

This will be the final Tropical Disturbance Advisory on Tropical
Depression 05F.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
issued from RSMC NADI Jan 13/0923 UTC 2006 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05F [998HPA] NEAR 23.0S 172.0W AT 130600 UTC
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON GOES-10 HR IR
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITHIN
155NM OF CENTRE.

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE MOVING 05F SOUTHWARDS AND IS MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE ABSORBED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE
TAM'S CIRCULATION.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN
THE AREA.

[mike815]

ok Tam is going to eat it.

[HURAKAN]

SURPRISE, 1.5!

13/1452 UTC 13.7S 175.6W T1.5/1.5 91P -- South Pacific Ocean