0z GFS VERY intresting

[txtwister]

Here in DFW we did not get anything from Katrina or Rita. Well, I lie, we did get some high clouds from Rita. I just feel so bad for all of the folks who have lost their homes and towns in the recent wildfires here in North and West Texas. It may be nice to walk around in shorts in January and to get a lower energy bill, but I still keep thinking about the people who lost their whole homes and the ones who lost their homes and towns. There are farmers and ranchers who are losing the farm/ranch after generations because of the drought. I am hoping for some rain, to help ease some of the drought/widfire problems.

[Extremeweatherguy]

NWS forecast calls for a 50% chance of storms tonight! First rain in weeks!

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB still calling for colder low level air to begin pouring into the plains next week and then spreading to the east. He says that most of the nation may end January cold. Tonights front, this weekends front and the fronts next week all bring the threat of freezes. (Tomorrow night is forecast at 35, but that is close enough to freezing that minor changes may lower the NWS forecast numbers).

[Portastorm]

NWS forecast calls for a 50% chance of storms tonight! First rain in weeks!

We have a 30% shot at precip tonight here in Austin. That's the highest POPs I have seen in ... well, I don't remember when!

[Stephanie]

Stephanie, some of it reached Texas. For Rita, East Texas got some rain, and probably SE OK. Katrina had a lesser impact.

Thanks for the update. I didn't think that it kept going west/northwest, but more of an northeast/easterly motion. I guess I just didn't realize that the autumn brought absolutely nothing to the party for you guys down there!

[southerngale]

Rita dumped about 4 inches of rain at my house here in Kingwood, and that was it for weeks...

Wow!!!! Here in Spring Branch I got a whole .44" from Rita and we haven't seen too much since except for that one 6" rain we had.

Dang....I didn't realize that. We seem so close, but apparently, so far too. There was a lot of flooding in Beaumont and Port Arthur area to go along with the devastating winds and that's all the rain you got? Weird.
But even with the flooding, (except for the storm surge that wiped out homes and business along the coast), the winds were far more destructive than the rain. We had a lot more rain from Allison.

[jeff]

Rita dumped about 4 inches of rain at my house here in Kingwood, and that was it for weeks...

Wow!!!! Here in Spring Branch I got a whole .44" from Rita and we haven't seen too much since except for that one 6" rain we had.

Dang....I didn't realize that. We seem so close, but apparently, so far too. There was a lot of flooding in Beaumont and Port Arthur area to go along with the devastating winds and that's all the rain you got? Weird.
But even with the flooding, (except for the storm surge that wiped out homes and business along the coast), the winds were far more destructive than the rain. We had a lot more rain from Allison.

Houston was on the far western edge of Rita's rainfall. Wind gust were much more noticable than the rainfall. Overall, even areas within the eyewall region, were not excessively wet (8-12 inches). On the 27th I drove from Houston to Lake Charles and then south to Holly Beach and it is like night and day between Houston and Lake Charles and no comparison at all between Lake Charles and Holly Beach. The eyewall region of Rita was pretty intense, but outside of that area, the wind damage drops off fairly quickly. The surge is another story. I was astounded by how far Rita's surge penetrated inland (18.8 miles clocked on the odometer). The damage along the Gulf is complete, not even the water tower or the light poles survived the surge and it is almost like the hurricane hit yesterday at Holly Beach...there has been no recovery in much of Cameron Parish.

A drive over to Holly Beach would greatly benefit those in the Houston/Galveston area complaining about the evac situation that we went through. I fear the day when it is our turn, after everything this past year our local population still does not fully understand what will happen when a cat 3 or 4 slams into the upper TX coast. Experience is sometimes the best teacher and this is one of those cases where most will have to experience before they grasp a full understanding of the power of a major hurricane and its destructive forces.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Rita dumped about 4 inches of rain at my house here in Kingwood, and that was it for weeks...

Wow!!!! Here in Spring Branch I got a whole .44" from Rita and we haven't seen too much since except for that one 6" rain we had.

Dang....I didn't realize that. We seem so close, but apparently, so far too. There was a lot of flooding in Beaumont and Port Arthur area to go along with the devastating winds and that's all the rain you got? Weird.
But even with the flooding, (except for the storm surge that wiped out homes and business along the coast), the winds were far more destructive than the rain. We had a lot more rain from Allison.

Houston was on the far western edge of Rita's rainfall. Wind gust were much more noticable than the rainfall. Overall, even areas within the eyewall region, were not excessively wet (8-12 inches). On the 27th I drove from Houston to Lake Charles and then south to Holly Beach and it is like night and day between Houston and Lake Charles and no comparison at all between Lake Charles and Holly Beach. The eyewall region of Rita was pretty intense, but outside of that area, the wind damage drops off fairly quickly. The surge is another story. I was astounded by how far Rita's surge penetrated inland (18.8 miles clocked on the odometer). The damage along the Gulf is complete, not even the water tower or the light poles survived the surge and it is almost like the hurricane hit yesterday at Holly Beach...there has been no recovery in much of Cameron Parish.

A drive over to Holly Beach would greatly benefit those in the Houston/Galveston area complaining about the evac situation that we went through. I fear the day when it is our turn, after everything this past year our local population still does not fully understand what will happen when a cat 3 or 4 slams into the upper TX coast. Experience is sometimes the best teacher and this is one of those cases where most will have to experience before they grasp a full understanding of the power of a major hurricane and its destructive forces.

Very true. I have talked to some people in Houston who think that WE experienced Cat. 3 force winds from Rita (HA!), and there are many who say, "wow, Rita was nothing!". How wrong they are; they obviously do not know what happened just 50 miles to our east, and what WOULD OF happened to Houston. Houston has not seen Hurricane force winds since 1983 (100mph gusts from Alicia), and yes I do fear when THIS city will once again see a strong hurricane bearing down. I fear that the next time a Rita is coming no one will evacuate, and THAT will be the time when it hits us directly and Houston sees the true force of a hurricane. Anyone who has moved here within the last 23 years have not faced hurricane force winds (In Houston), and that includes all those born here that are under 23 years old. Many here are oblivious to the force of one (living in Florida most of my life, including during the 2004 season and going through the eyewall of Charley...I however am not). It will be a scary sight the next time Houston gets hit, and I fear many will be injured or killed due to the ignorance that has developed after all the "close calls" it seems like Houston has been getting for the last 2 decades. To me this sounds exactly like it was in Orlando before Charley. Orlando had not been directly hit by a hurricane since 1960, so no one thought it would hit us, and if it did, no one expected damage. That night we saw 100+mph winds and many lost power for 1-2+ weeks (and water). Charley became the 3rd costliest hurricane ever (2nd at the time), and everyone's take on hurricanes in Orlando changed. I guess it will take a charley like storm to make people in Houston see what a hurricane can really do. And when that day comes, I guess many will learn a hard lesson, but I pray that many would be smart and take the next evacuation seriously...but after the Rita miss..I doubt they will.

[gboudx]

Is this arctic outbreak off now? Sorry if I missed a post, but there was a lot of excitement on this thread last week, now we're talking about Katrina and Rita. Did the dreaded long-range GFS strike again?

[WaitingForSiren]

It appears that way. Typical GFS acting up. I think itll get cold but nothing we havent seen before.

[Air Force Met]

Is this arctic outbreak off now? Sorry if I missed a post, but there was a lot of excitement on this thread last week, now we're talking about Katrina and Rita. Did the dreaded long-range GFS strike again?

As I said...throw some chicken bones on the flloor and read them (voodoo syle) and you'll get the same results as with the long-range GFS.

I tried to tell some of you guys here that even though the GFS was consistant it could be consistantly wrong because it keeps the same errors. You guys have to remember that 200+ hours out is a crap shoot and even when it's showing it on consecutive runs...even a few days in a row...there is a good chance it will not happen.

Of course...I have no doubt the next time the long-range GFS shows possible snow in SETX...the usualy snow geese will start honking

[Johnny]

I'd like to here exrtremeweatherguys' take on this future cold today.

Looking to see what the models have to say two weeks out is for entertainment purposes IMO. Sure, they might give you some ideas but nothing more, nothing less. As far as winter weather is concerned, I'm a big fan on looking what is going on way up north at the present time to get a good feel on what could be coming down. As of now, nothing worth mentioning and from what I can tell.....I don't see any bitterly cold air coming down anytime soon. Anyone here disagree?

[jasons2k]

I'd like to here exrtremeweatherguys' take on this future cold today.

Looking to see what the models have to say two weeks out is for entertainment purposes IMO. Sure, they might give you some ideas but nothing more, nothing less. As far as winter weather is concerned, I'm a big fan on looking what is going on way up north at the present time to get a good feel on what could be coming down. As of now, nothing worth mentioning and from what I can tell.....I don't see any bitterly cold air coming down anytime soon. Anyone here disagree?

I agree, doesn't look like much on the horizon. It may not be as warm as it has been lately, but nothing terribly cold.

FWIW I prefer getting a take from the likes of AFM and other members who offer an unbiased opinion/forecast based on facts and sound meteo. data rather than paying attention to hype and model solutions that have known biases. The rampant posts by some members that Texas is about to become the next tundra, all based on a hand-picked model run and the overwhelming desire to see a sleet pellet gets a little old. Forecasting is a science not a cheesy made-for-TV movie.

[Portastorm]

I'd like to here exrtremeweatherguys' take on this future cold today.

Looking to see what the models have to say two weeks out is for entertainment purposes IMO. Sure, they might give you some ideas but nothing more, nothing less. As far as winter weather is concerned, I'm a big fan on looking what is going on way up north at the present time to get a good feel on what could be coming down. As of now, nothing worth mentioning and from what I can tell.....I don't see any bitterly cold air coming down anytime soon. Anyone here disagree?

I agree, doesn't look like much on the horizon. It may not be as warm as it has been lately, but nothing terribly cold.

FWIW I prefer getting a take from the likes of AFM and other members who offer an unbiased opinion/forecast based on facts and sound meteo. data rather than paying attention to hype and model solutions that have known biases. The rampant posts by some members that Texas is about to become the next tundra, all based on a hand-picked model run and the overwhelming desire to see a sleet pellet gets a little old. Forecasting is a science not a cheesy made-for-TV movie.

Hey, what's the big idea? I resemble that remark, Mr. Schlitz!!

Actually, I hope I don't and I couldn't agree more with your post.

Many of us here do get a little excited sometimes in our passion for the weather. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to get back to my search for a hand-picked model run that shows sleet for Austin.

[Air Force Met]

My take on this "arctic outbreak:"

OK...now that this one isn't panning out...maybe the snow-geese will listen to the reasoning, since I know they didn't want to hear it when they thought the GFS was right on the money.

So...I'll say it again...now that this is yet another arctic outbreak that was broken...

1) "It's been warm...so it must flip back to cold..." is a fallacy....pure and simple. I can cite you year after year...example after example of warm winters that stayed warm. I can also point to a few cold winters. However, in SE TExas...just because it's been warm does not mean it's GOTTA flip back to being cold again. Nature doesn't work that way and if you think it does...you are fooling yourself. As I said in an earlier post...mother nature could care two hoots about the fact you are 10 degrees above normal for a given month. Nature doesn't think "Wow...10 degrees...I need to send them some arctic air to equalize them out down in Houston."

People....it doesn't work that way. Jan 1890...hottest on record, avg 62.7, Feb 1890-6th hottest on record. December 1889 (the month BEFORE Jan 1890)....HOTTEST on record.

Dec 1922/Jan 23 (4th/and 4th); Jan/Feb 1950 (2nd/8th); Jan/Feb 1911 (5th/4th); Jan/Feb 1927 (10th/5th).

Coldest on record: Jan/Feb 1978 (1st/2nd); Dec 1976/Jan 1977 (6th; 2nd); Dec 1983/Jan 1984 (2nd/10th); Jan/Feb 1985 (6th/6th)

And these are just for the top ten. What happens if you go into the top 20? So forget that it's been hot gotta get cold stuff. Get it out of your mind. It doesn't work that way and is foolishness. If it is excessively hot or cold in one area for a long period of time, nature will make up for that excess heat/cold by making it colder/hotter in another area...and not necessarily your house.

2) As I have posted numerous times, getting all excited about a long range forecasted cold outbreak of the GFS is not wise...especially when the cold air is not already present. Remember that by cold air I mean air in AK or western Canada that is well below normal for them this time of year.

Remember...when air leaves the arctic and is headed for SETX...it will warm a good 40-50 degrees from the time it leaves Montana. Also remember the GFS has a tendency to OVERDO cold temps in the long range. It does not take into account the fact that the lack of snow pack because of recent warmth will warm all this air.

3) The error this particular GFS run had was rather obvious. On the 4th it was putting down a rather large cut-off low over the southwwest and leaving it there a while...the slowly progressing it eastward. Then by the 6th it was opening it up into a deep trof with some ridging into AK, thus causing the honking of snow-geese and the growling of cold-bears in SETX. Now it is more progrssive with a series of major shortwaves moving quickly eastward. So...the GFS was basically going through a cycle, trying to figure out how much energy was going to be available to open up the huge cut-off it was forming. At first it didn't see anything up stream so it created a blocking pattern with the cut-off. Then it saw something to amplify the ridge upstream and open up the cutoff into a deep trough, although a more progressive one. Now it sees that feature much stronger that opens up the whole pattern and takes everything eastward in a progrssive pattern.

OK...that is my take on the busted GFS foreacst and the "been so warm...gotta return to cold" talk...which is gonna make my head explode. Be thankful there weren't web forums during the non-winter of 1889-1890...or you would have been seeing arctic fronts behind every bump in the GFS...and they would have never shown up...because it was the hottest December and January on record.

[jasons2k]

I'd like to here exrtremeweatherguys' take on this future cold today.

Looking to see what the models have to say two weeks out is for entertainment purposes IMO. Sure, they might give you some ideas but nothing more, nothing less. As far as winter weather is concerned, I'm a big fan on looking what is going on way up north at the present time to get a good feel on what could be coming down. As of now, nothing worth mentioning and from what I can tell.....I don't see any bitterly cold air coming down anytime soon. Anyone here disagree?

I agree, doesn't look like much on the horizon. It may not be as warm as it has been lately, but nothing terribly cold.

FWIW I prefer getting a take from the likes of AFM and other members who offer an unbiased opinion/forecast based on facts and sound meteo. data rather than paying attention to hype and model solutions that have known biases. The rampant posts by some members that Texas is about to become the next tundra, all based on a hand-picked model run and the overwhelming desire to see a sleet pellet gets a little old. Forecasting is a science not a cheesy made-for-TV movie.

Hey, what's the big idea? I resemble that remark, Mr. Schlitz!!

Actually, I hope I don't and I couldn't agree more with your post.

Many of us here do get a little excited sometimes in our passion for the weather. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to get back to my search for a hand-picked model run that shows sleet for Austin.

One thing I'd like to clarify....I'm not trying to rain on anyone's parade when they get excited. We all get excited about different things. Heck, I get excited about almost anything related to the weather. And I can certainly relate to the members here in South Texas that would love to see some snow, or even a hint of snow. I used to be that way.

When I went to Texas Tech ('93-'97), in the first 2 years I didn't have internet access (who did back then?). I don't know if the NWS even posted AFDs online and the like back then. I would go to the Meteo. Department at Tech and look at the NCEP 8-14 day forecasts that were printed in B&W and drool if it showed below normal temps and above normal precip. If I even saw pink on TWC maps at 5 days out, I went nuts.

Now I've become the snow grinch because I moved to Houston and I don't want my plants to all get killed (you've probably heard me ramble about that before........)

Anyway, being in Texas, I found when I got all excited about snow 9 out of 10 times I got jilted at the altar. So now I don't get very excited unless it really, really, really does look like it's gonna do it. And that's very, very rare unless you live in the Panhandle.

[jasons2k]

Thanks AFM

Once again the voice of reason

[Air Force Met]

Thanks AFM

Once again the voice of reason

No problem. I want to clarify that I am also not trying to rain on anyone's parade...I just want people to not let there enthusiasm for cold outbreaks get in the way of logical thoughts on what will happen.

[gboudx]

Thanks AFM. I assumed this was just another, in a long line of the GFS being way overdone in the long-range. Maybe one day it'll turn out to be true.

Over the weekend, a local TV met hyped up a major pattern change in mid-Jan that would bring arctic air into Texas. I have yet to see any of his colleagues forecast or present the same idea. Kudos to Etxhamxyl for calling that one.

[Portastorm]

The NCEP ensembles do seem to support thinking that a trough-ridge pattern from west to east across the mainland U.S. may develop as January continues to unfold.

I don't know about you folks, but I get a little excited about that because it may mean a better shot at some rain for Texas.